magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
Five key lessons to take from 2023
Thursday 14 Dec 2023If 2021 was the year that inflation made an unwelcome reappearance and 2022 was when fears of recession stalked financial markets, then 2023 saw share prices (in developed markets, at least) start to discount a much rosier scenario, in the form of a peak in both inflation and interest rates, as...
Why the dollar’s decline matters
Thursday 30 Nov 2023After shedding all of this year’s gains during an autumn retreat, the US dollar, as benchmarked by the trade-weighted DXY basket, or ‘Dixie’ index, stands no higher now than it did in spring 2022. Investors must assess why the globe’s reserve currency is sliding, whether those trends will continue...
Which assets, sectors and stocks have done best in the three years since Pfizer Monday?
Thursday 16 Nov 2023On 9 November 2020, Pfizer (PFE:NYSE) and BioNTech (BNTX:NASDAQ) announced they had developed a vaccine for Covid-19 and share prices surged around the world, even if they had already bottomed in the spring after a short, sharp correction. The two companies may have won the gratitude of many people...
One year to go: do markets need to care about who is the next US president?
Thursday 02 Nov 2023It is a year to the 60th US presidential Election, on 5 November 2024, and although financial markets are more concerned right now about events in the Middle East, the oil price and inflation right now, they will soon start to take a keener interest in the race to the White House. Incumbent Joseph...
Discover the only chart which matters to investors right now
Thursday 19 Oct 2023This column has no desire to be seen as a broken clock, stuck and chiming at the same time each day, but it remains convinced that the only chart that matters right now in financial markets is the one that shows the yield on the US 10-year Treasury, or government bond. The US 10-year’s vertiginous...
Is the buyback boom a help or hindrance for stock markets?
Thursday 05 Oct 2023The FTSE 100 continues to paddle sideways and is barely any higher now than it was in spring 2017, some six-and-a-half years ago. Such a turgid capital return has at least been supplemented by dividends and also share buybacks, which have played an ever-greater part of shareholder returns in the...
Where next for markets? Here are three potential scenarios
Thursday 21 Sep 2023Legendary American broadcaster Edward R. Murrow is known for many pungent epithets, but one of this column’s favourites is, ‘Anyone who isn’t confused really doesn’t understand the situation.’ Right now, investors feel confused because stock, bond, currency and commodity markets are giving out...
What should investors make of the big slump in small cap shares?
Thursday 07 Sep 2023Making money from the financial markets is never easy – if it were, then none of us would be working and there would be no productive assets or companies in which to invest – but clear patterns are developing as 2023 works its way toward its conclusion. In simple terms, 2023 is looking like a ‘risk...
Is China about to face its Minsky moment as country’s property crisis intensifies?
Thursday 24 Aug 2023Upon finding James Bond crossing his path for a third time in quick succession, in Miami over cards, Kent for golf and then Geneva, Auric Goldfinger finally senses trouble and tells 007, ‘Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it is enemy...
The US economy has kept powering ahead but can it continue?
Thursday 10 Aug 2023Regular readers of this column will know (or even bewail) its status as a bit of a trainspotter, quite literally when it comes to transport stocks. Owners of planes, ships, trucks and trains are right at the front line of the economy, because when things are going well their services are in demand...