magazine archive

magazine archive

Russ Mould

Why it’s now looking like the usual market cycle is about to repeat

Thursday 19 May 2022

Robert Rhea’s outline of a bull market in his tome, The Dow Theory , which dates back to 1932, still seems relevant today. He said: ‘There are three principal phases of a bull market: the first is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; the second is the response of stock...

Japan shock: Why the yen’s plunge really matters

Thursday 05 May 2022

In 2013, Kyle Bass, the Texas-based founder and manager of hedge fund Hayman Capital, gave an interview in which he tersely stated, ‘I would buy gold in yen and go to sleep for 10 years.’ The case for short yen/long gold was based upon the tattered state of Japan’s public finances, the country’s...

Are you worried about a recession coming? These are the signs to watch

Thursday 21 Apr 2022

Central bankers, politicians, company management teams and the public continue to fret about the cost of oil. A high oil price is in effect a tax, as it increases costs and squeezes margins and cash flow at companies. It also crimps consumers’ disposable income and their ability to spend. An oil...

The impact of a US bond market blitz on stocks and the economy

Thursday 07 Apr 2022

It was former US president Bill Clinton’s economic adviser James Carville who said that if he were reincarnated, he would like to come back as the bond market because then ‘you can intimidate everybody.’ Now that US bond yields are surging and prices are falling, stock market investors need to...

Just how far could commodity prices go?

Thursday 24 Mar 2022

And so Xiang Guangda, founder of Chinese nickel firm Tsingshan, joins an infamous list of firms and traders who have had their trousers pulled right down when trading commodities. But neither the humbling experience nor its scale – a reported $8 billion paper loss – are as rare as you might think...

Why junk bonds suggest the global economy is in a mess

Thursday 10 Mar 2022

No-one, but no-one, knows what the ultimate ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be, looked at from the broad perspective of international politics or the much narrower – and less important – one of investments. Commodity markets are in foment but stock and bond markets are so far...

The big market pay debate

Thursday 24 Feb 2022

Calls from both the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, and its chief economist, Huw Pill, for wage restraint do not sit easily alongside the current headline inflation figures. Nor does Unilever’s ( ULVR ) statement (10 Feb) that it raised prices by 4.9% in the fourth quarter of last year...

Two key takeaways from the silicon chip market

Thursday 10 Feb 2022

Regular readers of this column will know of its affinity for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, known as the SOX. The benchmark comprises 30 global – if primarily American – manufacturers of silicon chips and semiconductor production equipment. It can be followed for free on the internet, but it...

Why markets are worried about inflation

Thursday 27 Jan 2022

Well, that didn’t take long. The US Federal Reserve began to pump less quantitative easing (QE) into the financial system in November and the stock market’s wheels have already started to wobble after barely two months of less cheap money, let alone any move to withdraw it. Investors can therefore...

Discover the least and most popular stocks heading into 2022

Thursday 13 Jan 2022

Every year this column tracks the ratings put on stocks across the FTSE 100 and FTSE 350 by the investment banks which provide research on the UK equity market. And what catches the eye this year is that the analyst community is the most bullish it has ever been since our first survey back in 2015...