US recession? Almost no chance

Data model predicts close to zero probability in next 12 months
Thursday 12 Oct 2017 Author: Steven Frazer

There is virtually no chance of the US economy plunging into recession during the next 12 months, say economic strategists at investment bank UBS.

The analysts input many hard and soft data points into their model and find that a ‘US recession probability is still close to zero’.

Hard data is fact based; numbers, statistics and charts, say. It takes me 40 minutes to get to work in the morning, for example. Soft data is subjective and highly variable. I think it is quicker to get the tube to work rather than the bus.

‘Although the gap between hard and soft data is large, the implied recession probabilities are actually in sync and show no signs of a slowdown ahead,’ says UBS.

That’s good news for investors everywhere given the size of the US economy and the ramifications for a slowdown rippling elsewhere. When the US sneezes, everyone catches a cold, as the saying goes.

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