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So far so good as banks enjoy rising rates and debts have stayed low
Thursday 19 Oct 2023 Author: Ian Conway

As usual with the US quarterly earnings season, the ‘Big Four’ banks have kicked off proceedings giving us an insight into the health of consumers and businesses and the state of the financial markets.

First out of the blocks was JPMorgan Chase (JPM:NYSE), the world’s largest bank by market value ($430 billion) and generally a bellwether for the US economy.



Third-quarter revenue rose 22% to $39.9 billion, beating Wall Street’s raised forecasts of $39.6 billion, while earnings per share jumped 35% to $4.33 against forecasts of $3.92.

Chief executive Jamie Dimon admitted the bank was ‘over-earning on net interest income and below normal credit costs, both of which will normalise over time’, although he said the bank has ‘extraordinarily high’ liquidity should bad debts rise.

So far, according to Dimon, US consumers and businesses generally remain healthy, although consumers are spending down their excess cash buffers built up during Covid.

The bank cleaned up in financial markets, gaining market share in investment banking and retaining its number one ranking in deal-making.

Third-quarter earnings from Citigroup (C:NYSE) also beat estimates at $1.63 per share against a consensus of $1.23, although the bank did log a 35% increase in credit costs to $1.8 billion saying loan losses were already ‘normalising’.

Chief executive Jane Fraser also noted that ‘the continued deceleration in spending indicates an increasingly cautious consumer.’

However, Citi’s investment bank performed well during the quarter, with markets revenue up 10% driven by strength in fixed-income trading, while banking activity was bolstered by a rebound in debt issuance and some signs of life in the equity capital markets.

Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE), the third of the ‘Big Four’ to report, kept the good news coming with revenue and earnings comfortably ahead of expectations.

Charlie Scharf, chief executive, flagged higher net interest income thanks to high interest rates on customer loans but added the bank was seeing the impact of the slowing economy with loan balances declining and ‘charge-offs continuing to deteriorate modestly’.

Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) was scheduled to have published its results as this edition of Shares was being finalised.

Looking ahead to the UK bank results, which kick off with Barclays (BARC) on 20 October, the main read-across is in investment banking where earnings from the US have been surprisingly robust given the volatility in financial markets.

Barclays, HSBC (HSBA) – which reports on 30 October – and NatWest (NWG) – which reports on 27 October – all have sizeable investment banking businesses, so investors will be hoping they have enjoyed the same uplift to earnings and not been on the wrong side of the market from their US peers.

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