Retailers will be hoping that money-off deals at this year’s Black Friday event (25 November) will be enough to tempt cash-strapped consumers into buying goods. However, Statista forecasts that UK consumer spending will drop to £8.71 billion over the four days starting with Black Friday, down from £9.42 billion in 2021.

Many households have been cutting back on spending as the higher cost of living means they have less money after paying the bills. Black Friday’s discounts could be their chance to buy Christmas presents at cheaper than normal prices.

While that would help retailers shift stock – many of whom are sitting on excess inventories – it won’t be good for their profit margins.

Originally a one-day event designed by US shops to boost sales after Thanksgiving, it has morphed into a weeks-long marketing bonanza and spawned other retail ‘holidays’ like Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday.

UK retailers including AO (AO.), John Lewis and Currys (CURY) have already been offering special deals for over a week, and firms such as Dunelm (DNLM) and Halfords (HFD) are promising big discounts with early access for selected customers.

With the strain on UK family finances due to the increase in food prices – which hit a record 14.7% in October according to analysts at Kantar, adding £682 to the average annual grocery bill – and new austerity measures expected in this week’s Autumn Statement from the Government, it remains to be seen whether consumers will be in much mood to spend on non-essentials.

US retailers may also be disappointed as consumers have been shopping for the holidays early this year by all accounts. Analysts believe many households have already splurged on big-ticket items after stores found themselves with too much inventory and reduced prices to ‘clear the decks’ before the holiday season.

E-commerce has remained robust with US shoppers spending over $72 billion online last month according to Adobe Analytics. Household goods like air fryers and mini fridges have been selling well, along with outerwear, electronics, toys and holiday decorations.

In Asia, the world’s biggest shopping event – which typically eclipses Black Friday and Cyber Monday – took place on 11 November. Singles Day, also known as Double 11, was launched by Chinese retail giant Alibaba (BABA:NYSE) in 2009 as an antidote to Valentine’s Day and a means for people not in romantic relationships to indulge themselves.

Sales this year were expected to top one trillion yuan ($140 billion), which while it may sound impressive would represent growth of just 5% on last year’s figure which already marked a slowdown from previous years.

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