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Markets expect UK interest rates to peak around 4.8% during late summer of 2023
Thursday 03 Nov 2022 Author: Martin Gamble

Since the UK Government’s disastrous mini-Budget (23 Sep) and subsequent U-turn there has been marked interest from retail investors in UK gilts.

According to Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, there have been more gilt purchases by AJ Bell customers since the mini-Budget than the rest of the year combined.

WHAT ARE GILTS?

Gilts or gilt-edged securities are debts issued by the UK’s debt management office on behalf of the treasury department. Investors buying gilts are lending to the UK Government.

The risk of any government of the UK defaulting is low. Credit rating agency Standard and Poors has a double-A rating on the UK, one notch below the top triple-A rating.

HOW GILTS WORK

Prices of gilts move in the opposite direction to yields.

Gilts are issued at a given nominal value and repaid at maturity on the redemption date. In the meantime, the holder receives a coupon which is a cash payment per £100 nominal value, made in semi-annual payments on fixed dates.

For example, an investor holding £1,000 worth of Treasury 5% 7/3/2025 will receive £50 per year. The value of a bond is comprised of capital value and accrued interest.

Bond prices are usually quoted as clean prices which is the actual price (dirty price) paid less accrued interest. Holders on the register within a week of each coupon payment are entitled to the cash payment.

Because gilts are redeemed at par, an investor buying at a premium to par is guaranteeing a capital loss if the gilt is held to maturity. The total return may still be positive if the accumulated interest payments make up for the capital loss.

WHY WOULD I BUY GILTS?

For the first time in several years gilts provide an opportunity to earn a decent return after two-year yields surged from less than 0.5% a year ago to over 4% at the recent spike. Yields have since fallen to around 3.2%.

That is more competitive than yields on instant access savings accounts but below the best yields available on fixed term savings accounts.

But remember to factor in dealing spreads, commissions, and platform charges, to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

Also, as the last year has demonstrated gilts can inflict capital losses on investors. Historically though gilts have provided relative safety during economic downturns.

HOW DO I BUY GILTS?

Individual gilts can only be purchased over the telephone at AJ Bell (and most other platforms) and held across all types of account. Another option to consider is getting access to gilts through passive funds, ETFs or actively managed funds.

DISCLAIMER: Financial services company AJ Bell referenced in this article owns Shares magazine. The author of this article (Martin Gamble) and the editor (Tom Sieber) own shares in AJ Bell.

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