By the time Shares goes to press we will already have had the February UK retail sales surveyfrom the BRC (British Retail Consortium) and potentially the last spring Budget from chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

January retail sales got off to a good start thanks to the usual New Year promotions, but that wasn’t sustained during the month and larger purchases such as furniture, household appliances and electricals were weak as the higher cost of living continues into a third year.

February was expected to show an improvement, but sadly that wasn’t the case with sales up 1.1% against 1.2% the previous month and estimates of a 1.6% increase with non-food sales once again the culprit.

We will also have had the European Central Bank’s decision on whether or not to cut rates, with most observers expecting Christine Lagarde to stand pat at 4.5% again.

Leaving the spring Budget to one side, the end of this week will be all about US employment data, in particular the January JOLTS (Jon Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) figure on 6 March and non-farm payrolls on 8 March, both of which have thrown the market some big surprises in recent months.

The strength of the labour market both in the UK and the US has been a thorn in the side of those calling for early central bank rate cuts, and next Monday sees the release of the UK January unemployment rate along with average wage data which will no doubt feed into the Bank of England’s thought process when it comes to deciding on the trajectory of interest rates later this month.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be watching the direction of consumer and industrial prices, and in particular the core measures, before it makes its decision on interest rates in just under a fortnight. 

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