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Please note that tax, investment, pension and ISA rules can change and the information and any views contained in this article may now be inaccurate.

Infrastructure and tobacco companies are on tenterhooks
Thursday 28 Sep 2023 Author: Sabuhi Gard

Prime minister Rishi Sunak has floated and announced big policy changes recently from delaying a ban of the sales of new petrol and diesel cares, pulling back on phasing out gas boilers and introducing a New Zealand-style anti-smoking policy.

There has also been the public discussion of abandoning or at least curtailing the zero-carbon high-speed railway to the north of England – better known as HS2. According to HS2’s website the project has ‘£23-billion contracted into the supply chain and around 350 active sites between the West Midlands and London, supporting almost 30,000 jobs’.

Then there is the personal finance overhaul reportedly being considered by Sunak’s chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

This could include increasing IHT (inheritance tax) limits or potentially even abolishing them entirely. AJ Bell head of retirement policy Tom Selby says: ‘Politically, raising IHT thresholds – or even going a step further by abolishing the tax altogether – is likely to be appealing, particularly given we are closing in on a general election.

‘However, IHT has been a reliable cash cow for the Exchequer, generating £2.38 billion in 2009/10 but rising to £6.1 billion last year.’

Other reported changes include a shake-up of ISAs which could encompass the phasing out of some forms of ISA like the Lifetime ISA and Innovative Finance ISA, an increase in the annual allowance with the potential for some allowance to be specifically given over to investments in UK-listed stocks.

We should find out more on 22 November when Hunt delivers his Autumn Statement.

Infrastructure and construction groups like Balfour Beatty (BBY) and Kier (KIE) have both been awarded Phase 2 contracts for the HS2 and will miss out if the project is not completed. It is too early to say how abandoning the Birmingham-Manchester leg, a move which is yet to be confirmed, will affect the companies in the short term but long-term revenue may be affected.

Smaller businesses like Costain (COST), geotechnical engineering firm Keller (KLR), equipment rental outfit  VP (VP.) and ground engineering company Van Elle (VANL:AIM) could also lose out.

If the Government introduces a ban on selling cigarettes to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, in the UK, the revenue stream of British American Tobacco (BATS) and Imperial Brands (IMB) will be affected. Reports of stricter regulation saw Imperial and British American shares fall 6% and 3% respectively.

A delay in the move away from gas boilers (now scheduled to 2035) is a headwind for companies like Homeserve now owned by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM:NYSE).

DISCLAIMER: Financial services company AJ Bell referenced in this article owns Shares magazine. The author of this article (Sabuhi Gard) and the editor (Tom Sieber) own shares in AJ Bell.

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