Markets are very data driven so it is important to stay on top of the latest economic information. This is particularly topical because investors are trying to work out how different data points might influence the decision making of central banks and the trajectory of interest rates.
In this article we provide a guide to a selection of the most significant monthly data releases, revealing when they are published and the reasons behind their significance.
Long-term investors should not be making wholesale changes to their portfolio based on what the markets are doing in any particular month, but it is very useful to have a clear idea of the market’s mood music and key announcements which set it when weighing investment decisions.
Interest rates
When are the upcoming central bank rate decision meetings?
US Federal Reserve
2023
20 September, 1 November, 13 December
2024
31 January, 20 March, 1 May, 12 June, 31 July, 18 September, 7 November, 18 December
Bank of England
2023
21 September, 2 November, 14 December
2024*
1 February, 21 March, 9 May, 20 June, 1 August, 19 September, 7 November, 19 December
*Provisional
European Central Bank
2023
14 September, 26 October, 14 December
2024
25 January, 7 March, 11 April, 6 June, 18 July,
12 September, 17 October, 12 December
NON-FARM PAYROLLS
Country: US
What is it? This data, which is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and excludes the seasonal farming industry, shows the number of people employed in the US during the previous month.
When is it released? On the first Friday of the month.
Why is it important? Although this number is volatile, subject to frequent revisions, and relates to job losses and creation, an activity that lags the economic cycle, it is also the earliest release, based on hard data, to give a snapshot of the health of the world’s largest economy.
It has historically had the most capacity to move the markets of any global release. The strength of the jobs market is also a key influence on the US Federal Reserve and its decisions on interest rates.
PMI DATA
Country: Global
What is it? The purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, is based on a survey of purchasing managers and typically encompasses the manufacturing, construction and services industries. Any figure above 50 implies growth whereas any number below this threshold indicates contraction.
When is it released? In the US the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI is released on the first calendar day of the month, with the services data following on the third calendar day of the month.
In the UK the manufacturing numbers are released on the first working day of the month, the construction figures on the second and the services data on the third.
Eurozone PMI data is typically out in the third week of the month. In China the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data is released on the final day of the calendar month.
Why is it important? PMI updates offer a good insight into the health of an economy because businesses tend to react quickly to economic conditions. Their purchasing managers have the most up-to-date view of these conditions. They need to have a good handle on what is going on in the economy in order to make informed decisions when buying the goods and services required by their company.
CPI DATA
Country: Global
What is it? The consumer prices index, also known as CPI, measures the change in the price of a basket goods and services purchased by consumers – usually a year-on-year and month-on-month reading is provided.
When is it released? In the US, UK and Eurozone this data is usually posted roughly two weeks after the end of the month. In China this data is out around 10 days after the end of the month.
Why is it important? Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. After a prolonged period after the 2007/8 financial crisis when inflation stood at negligible levels, upward pressure on prices has sharply increased coming out of the pandemic, exacerbated by the 2022 invasion of Ukraine alongside other economic factors. As a result, CPI is now one of the most widely followed economic announcements, by both investors and central bankers.
PPI DATA
Country: Global
What is it? Also known as factory gate prices, this shows the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers or manufacturers.
When is it released? Typically, this comes out concurrently with CPI data or a day or two after.
Why is it important? It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. When businesses are charging more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE
Country: Germany
What is it? The Ifo Business Climate index, which is aimed at gauging business confidence, is based on a survey of 7,000 individual German companies carried out by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.
When is it released? Around three weeks into each month.
Why is it important? Germany is comfortably the largest economy in the Eurozone economic area and this survey is respected thanks to its large sample size and track record of predicting movements in German GDP.
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Country: China
What is it? Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities.
When is it released? Around 15 days after the start of the month.
Why is it important? China is the world’s second largest economy and is one of the largest consumers of many commodities produced by the miners and oil and gas companies which populate the FTSE 100 index of UK company shares. Industrial production is a leading indicator of economic health – it encompasses the dominant drivers of the Chinese economy and this data is sensitive to swings in the business cycle.
Where can I get the information?
Many financial data websites publish the economic data as soon as it is released. For example, Trading Economics, Investing.com and Forex Factory publish a calendar listing all the upcoming data points, including market forecasts, as well as recent data releases.
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