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Higher mortgage rates and fewer reservations are seen crimping demand
Thursday 03 Aug 2023 Author: Ian Conway

Given the poor performance of Persimmon’s (PSN) shares this year it’s fair to say investors aren’t expecting great things from the UK housebuilder when it reports first-half earnings on 10 August.

In its first-quarter trading update in April, the firm was more upbeat than many had hoped, even suggesting full-year completions could reach the top end of its 8,000 to 9,000 target range, although that still implied a 40% drop from last year’s total.



With the Bank of England’s base rate having risen from 4.25% to 5% and mortgage rates having topped 6% in the interim, stymying the first-time buyer market, and no more support from the Help to Buy scheme, any change to its previous guidance is likely to be seized on by the market.

Net private reservations will also be scrutinised, having collapsed to 0.3 per outlet per week in the final quarter of 2022 after the disastrous ‘mini-Budget’ and recovered to 0.62 in the first quarter – still a long way short of the 0.98 ratio of the first quarter last year.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the supply chain squeeze and shortage
of materials which followed the invasion of Ukraine have eased, so there may be some positive news on input costs, but the tight labour market means wages are likely to have risen.



 

UK UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

FULL-YEAR RESULTS

August 8: Hargreaves Services

August 10: Hargreaves Lansdown

HALF-YEAR RESULTS

August 4: WPP

August 7: Page Group

August 8: InterContinental Hotels, SIG, IWG, Zotefoams, Glencore, H&T Group, Rotork, Abrdn, TI Fluid Systems

August 9: Hill and Smith, Coca-Cola HBC, TP ICap, Flutter Entertainment

August 10: Derwent London, Tritax Big Box Reit, Hostelworld, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Capital & Regional, Atalaya Mining, OSB, Entain, Lancashire, Persimmon, Network International, Videndum

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

August 4: Pets at Home

August 9: Bellway

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