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It could hurt corporate earnings and cause chaos to an industry that is still trying to recover from the pandemic
Thursday 20 Jul 2023 Author: Danni Hewson

It has been 60 years since both writers and actors have joined picket lines in Hollywood. Back then it was also about how studios would pay out ‘residuals’ – royalties for their part in films repeated on TV networks as the world of entertainment morphed into something new.

Today’s dispute is like a re-run. The advent of streaming services has changed the game again as consumers have the power to watch what they want and when they want.

Streaming giants like Netflix (NFLX:NASDAQ), Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) and Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ) vie for supremacy against veteran film makers Paramount (PARA:NASDAQ), Warner Bros Discovery (WBD:NASDAQ), Fox (FOX:NASDAQ) and Walt Disney (DIS:NYSE) – all of them are benefiting from the glut of wonderous and hastily devoured content, and actors and writers are fighting for their share.

For investors, the biggest question is how long will these strikes last now that actors have joined writers on the picket line? If it is a matter of weeks the impact should be minor, especially for platforms like Amazon and Apple which have invested hugely in unaffected sports content, and for Netflix which has a vast international network of production teams and a slate of popular content heralding from far flung places like South Korea.



If the dispute goes on for months, which the veteran actor Brian Cox told BBC Newscast is the more likely outcome, then the entire industry which has only just begun to recover from Covid’s cruel grip, could be hurt.

Already production on highly anticipated blockbusters has been halted, red carpets have been devoid of stars with Disney’s Haunted House premiere having to fall back on dressed-up characters rather than the actors who have brought those characters to life on screen.

Investors are already pricing in the impact the walkout is likely to have on film studios and US cinema empires.

And the Succession star might have good reason to believe this dispute will last at least as long as that in the 1960s. Because this dispute is not just about residual fees, it is also about the potential that artificial intelligence could infiltrate every aspect of the industry.

We have already seen the wonders that special effects can create, bringing back the dead in order to finish story arcs from series like Star Wars. But imagine if an actor’s face, voice and familiar expression could be reproduced ad-infinitum without them ever having to set foot on a
sound stage.

And what of the words that spring from that actors’ mouth, the human stories that captivate us all and keep us coming back series after series? If an application like Bard or ChatGPT could rustle up a few pages of dialogue, would we the viewing public really know the difference? I imagine the answer is murky at best.

What is clear is that content is king. Investors developed a keen understanding of that fact following the dearth of material post-pandemic and the rush to spend by studios which ate so deeply into recent profit margins.

While the cinematic slate is looking more exciting than it has in years cinema attendance is still looking a little fragile. Box-office takings for blockbusters like the latest Indiana Jones movie and the seventh instalment of the Mission Impossible franchise have been a touch disappointing.

Momentum is important and this strike has the potential to cause huge damage to film studios, streamers, cinemas and a range of interconnected businesses with estimates suggesting the economic fallout could be upwards of $4 billion.

And the fallout is not limited to the US. Sheffield-based Zoo Digital (ZOO:AIM) saw its share price plummet as actors walked off sets and the company revealed how writers’ strikes and cost-cutting moves by those aforementioned streaming sites were already impacting its earnings.

The company provides dubbing, subtitling and other post-production services both in the UK and in Los Angeles while another London-listed firm, Facilities by ADF (ADF:AIM), provides those great big make-up trucks and star trailers ubiquitous on film locations.

It too has seen investor confidence wane since the start of the year as has ITV (ITV), though the latter has other issues to deal with alongside the current crisis.

And when you consider the wider implications, if there is a big delay to new releases, then the sector’s recovery could fizzle out altogether and all those bars, restaurants and shops that rely on the movies for footfall will also suffer.

This is a dispute guaranteed to create headlines thanks to all the famous faces in the mix. But underneath the glitter it is about money and how it ends will have huge ramifications for everyone with skin in the game.



 

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