For years, Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ) seemed invincible, an e-commerce giant that made other companies quiver when it muscled into their markets. It helped Amazon shares soar, making loyal investors a packet along the way.

This year, that all changed. The stock has lost more than 48% in 2022, the worst fall since the global financial crisis. For comparison’s sake, Amazon lost about 12% during the worst of the Covid pandemic panic selling during February and March 2020. Amazon stock is now back to 2019 levels.

WHY HAS AMAZON STOCK FALLEN?

Multiple factors have contributed to Amazon’s share price decline this year, but in a nutshell, rampant inflation has trimmed the margins of Amazon’s vast online retail empire, depleting operating cash flows.

Online retail growth prospects and cloud industry momentum are some of the reasons why most remain upbeat. ‘While we expect a more challenging growth outlook near-term, we remain positive on long-term growth for both retail and AWS with improving margins over time as Amazon focuses on productivity improvements,’ says Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler.

AWS, or Amazon Web Services, is the company’s cloud computing business, perceived as a key engine of growth for future profit.

Others wonder if the pressure on profits may not be a one-off, but a sign of things to come. Cost-of-living pressures and a rising interest rate environment will be with us for much of next year, many experts believe.

‘We believe that Amazon has the most downside in our mega-cap coverage given its exposure to inflationary cost headwinds and a potential impact from slowing consumption,’ Jefferies tech analyst Brent Thill wrote in a note to clients at the end of November.

‘We show that a bear case scenario of $60 billion in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) at a nine-times trough-multiple would yield a $51 dollar stock,’ Thill said. That implies more than 40% downside from current share price levels.

HOW DID AMAZON PERFORM IN Q3?

Even though Amazon’s revenue grew 15% in the third quarter, there are concerns that profits could be zero in Q4 due to weak consumer sentiment. Among the key highlights from Amazon’s Q3 results were:

– Revenue of $127.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year

– Net income down 9.4% to $2.9 billion or $0.28 per share

– AWS generated sales of $20.5 billion, up 27% year-on-year

– Amazon’s costs rose about 18% to $124.6 billion, making this the fifth consecutive quarter where expenses increased faster than revenue

– Amazon stock dropped as much as 14% in after-hours trading after it admitted to expecting lighter holiday sales

– Amazon said it expects Q4 revenue in the range of $140 billion to $148 billion. The midpoint of $144 billion was materially below consensus estimates of $155.1 billion

In mid-November, Amazon announced that staff layoffs were coming, but did not specify how many jobs would be cut. The New York Times, citing unnamed sources, reported that the retailing giant would cut 10,000 employees from its payroll, or about 3% of its workforce.

The axe may fall hardest on Amazon’s devices arm, including the voice assistant Alexa, as well as its retail division and in human resources. In a blog post Amazon said, ‘We continue to face an unusual and uncertain macroeconomic environment.’

INFLATION IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

The e-commerce segment is highly dependent on consumer purchasing power, and an increase in prices could lead to less spending and slower growth. While recent US and UK data shows the pace of price rises is slowing, inflation is still running at its hottest in decades.

With trillions of dollars pumped into the economy by government stimulus and previous Federal Reserve quantitative easing, inflation is becoming a permanent risk. Prime Day, which has traditionally been one of Amazon’s biggest sales events with discounts on multiple products, saw mediocre sales this year compared to previous iterations.

But Amazon’s exposure to inflation is not limited to consumers, it will still have an enormous workforce after planned job cuts. At the end of September Amazon announced US-based staff wage increases that will cost the company an extra $1 billion. The new deal came into effect in October.

Adding to the souring global economic backcloth, Amazon has also been subject to increased scrutiny from US and EU regulators this year. In particular, the company faces potential antitrust regulations that could force significant restructuring of its businesses.

Some believe this could have significant ramifications for Amazon’s ability to deliver one or two-day shipping to its Prime members. As one of its main competitive advantages, it would be a substantial blow to its e-commerce operation.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Innovation and expansion are something that Amazon has always done well, and it continues to do so, investing heavily in cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and entertainment.

These ventures include acquiring MGM, setting viewing records for its Thursday night American football show, and the release of its blockbuster Lord of the Rings series. By investing in these new areas, it welcomes new customers into the Amazon ecosystem and expands its reach to different markets.

It also remains king of e-commerce, with worldwide online sales expected to increase by 56% from $5.2 trillion in 2021 to $8.1 trillion by 2026. Amazon’s market share in this sector should continue to increase over time as customers turn to it for convenience and competitive pricing.

Online advertising is also fast becoming a meaningful growth lever despite the slowing advertising spend seen this year. Amazon’s third quarter advertising revenues increased 25%, up from the previous quarter’s approximate 15%.

The most important part of the business for investors to watch is not retail but AWS, long seen as Amazon’s crown jewel. With Q3 revenues of $20.5 billion, it makes about 16% of Amazon’s total income, yet it is by far its most profitable business, on near-30% operating margins thanks to its proprietary technology, and it has been key to cash flow.

Stiffening competition from Microsoft’s (MSFT:NASDAQ) Azure and Alphabet’s (GOOG:NASDAQ) Google Cloud needs watching but this is a structurally growing market. Gartner estimates that public cloud end-user spend of $410 billion in 2021 will rise to nearly $600 billion in 2023.

As AWS becomes an ever-larger part of the overall Amazon empire, its far superior margins should exert an increasing influence on Amazon’s profits.

2022 results are likely to be ugly, with little or no profit at all, so anyone considering investing in the shares needs to weigh up the potential for the business longer term versus what might happen in the near-term.

Market sentiment remains poor towards the stock as investors continue to be very short-term in their thinking. Therefore, Amazon would have to really surprise with its outlook commentary for 2023 (expected to be published in early February) for investors to start to reappraise the shares.

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