A less globalised economy, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the supply chain disruptions caused by Covid, (particularly in China), have caused a surge in inflation.

UK inflation is running at the fastest pace in 40 years, rising from 9.4% to 10.1% in July. This marks a continued structural shift in the cost of goods and services that is squeezing discretionary spending. This is important because consumption constitutes the largest constituent (over 60%) of the UK economy, and as it slows so will the UK economy.

At the same time central banks have been forced to raise interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation. Money markets, which see trading in very short-term debt, suggest that interest rates will hit 4% by next spring.

A BIG CHANGE FOR INVESTORS

This has significant implications for investors. First, the interest rate you receive on a savings account will rise. This along with the yield from long-term government bonds is sometimes used as the so-called ‘risk-free rate’.

The flip side of this is that the additional return that investors will require for holding shares as opposed to the return they would receive on a savings account (the equity risk premium) will also be higher.

This is likely to make investors more cautious about investing in stocks and increases the appeal of holding cash. However, over the long term shares as an asset class have proven to outperform bonds and the return derived from cash.

An inflationary and rising interest rate environment will tend to increase the appeal of value stocks relative to growth stocks. This is because during a period of rising interest rates current earnings become more highly valued while investors are less willing to pay up for cash at some point in the future.

Businesses with pricing power (the ability to increase price without experiencing a loss in demand) are also likely to prosper in the current environment. Rising costs can erode a company’s profit margins, and ultimately investor returns. Pricing power can help companies fight inflation and protect their margins by passing costs along to the customer.

DASH FOR CASH

Given the increasingly bearish macro-economic backdrop the appeal of cash versus other asset classes including bonds, stocks and gold is likely to rise. In recent decades holding cash has been perceived as being overly defensive and the paltry returns on offer were outpaced by inflation, even when inflationary pressures were much less acute than they are now.

This view was cogently articulated from a US perspective in a recent research note by the Morgan Stanley strategy team.

Their key finding was that except for two years (2013 and 2018), US dollar cash underperformed both the S&P 500 and the US 10-year Treasury bond every year from 2010 to 2020. Morgan Stanley strategy believe that we are experiencing a regime switch arguing that for US dollar investors, holding cash no longer detracts from a portfolio’s yield.

US six-month treasury bills are currently yielding 3.1%, which is the highest level since late 2007. While the current interest rate returns in the UK are lower than in the US, they still signify a significant shift in the appeal of cash as an asset class.

For a one-year fixed rate UK savings account rates range from 3% to 3.35%. Easy access rates are in the 1.7% to 1.8% range. These rates look increasingly likely to rise in the coming months.

And yet over time, history would suggest it makes sense to hold stocks.

According to Barclays’ annual Equity Gilt Study, UK share returns have averaged 4.9% a year after tax and inflation since 1900 – compared with 1.3% from UK government bonds and 0.6% from cash.

THE INCREASING APPEAL OF VALUE STOCKS

Value stocks are those which trade at a lower level than their fundamentals (the underlying economic conditions, the state of the wider sector and their own financial performance) suggest they should.

As a result, they will typically also trade at lower price to earnings or PE multiples. The PE ratio is the share price divided by earnings per share.

Ken French is a professor of finance at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College. He is most famous for his work on asset pricing with Eugene Fama.

Analysis based on data from French’s own Data Library suggests that value stocks perform well when interest rates and inflation are high.

Critically stocks in the cheapest 30% of the market by price to book ratio (also known as price to net asset value) outperformed the most expensive 30% by 9.97 percentage points per year between January 1970 and December 1979, a period marked by persistently high inflation.

A growth stock refers to a company that’s expected to increase its profits or revenue faster than the average business in its industry or the market broadly. Growth stocks are typically in demand when interest rates are low or falling.

During periods of low interest rates, there is often a flow of capital to companies that have good potential for growth, implying that investors are willing to pay a higher premium for the future growth of such companies.

An upward movement in interest rates changes the market’s assessment of what a future stream of cash flow or earnings is worth today.

The critical point of distinction is that value orientated companies are valued on their near-term cash flow (current earnings) and are impacted less from any increase in interest rates. This is in sharp contrast to growth-orientated corporates where the majority of their value comes from long-term cash flows.

THREE FORCES DRIVING THE ROTATION FROM GROWTH TO VALUE

Typically value stocks are assessed on their current earnings while growth stocks are valued on their future earnings.

In an inflationary and rising interest rate environment current earnings become more valuable and future earnings tend to become less valuable.

Inflationary periods have favoured value stocks and deflationary periods have favoured growth stocks.

THE IMPORTANCE OF PRICING POWER

Businesses with pricing power (the ability to increase price without experiencing a loss in demand) are likely to prosper in the current environment.

Tobacco giant British American Tobacco (BATS) is a good example of a company with pricing power, though there are obvious regulatory and ethical considerations to factor in.

Tobacco is addictive which makes it difficult for people to quit. The tobacco industry also operates in a highly consolidated market with the four largest companies controlling more than 80% of the market value.

Given the strong position of its global brands British American Tobacco has been able to continually improve the price mix. Finance director Tadeu Marroco told Shares in 2021 that the elasticity of cigarettes across the world was still very benign at 0.4 to 0.6.

In non-technical terms this means a 10% increase in price would lead to a 4% to 6% drop off in consumption.

The strength of the cigarette business is built on the group having strong global brands at every price point British American has led the US market on price over the last two years with eight price increases with no change in demand.

Given the highly challenging macro-economic backdrop investors may increasingly appreciate BAT’s defensive traits as people find it hard to shake the smoking habit irrespective of their economic situation. It is highly cash generative and pays a 6.2% dividend yield.

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