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Gloomier picture for economic growth as chancellor unveils national insurance cut
Thursday 23 Nov 2023 Author: Tom Sieber

Shares in banking group NatWest (NWG) slipped on news of a potential retail shareholder offer in the coming 12 months – with chancellor Jeremy Hunt giving a deliberate nod to the privatisations of the 1980s in his Autumn Statement.

The concern will be that at least a portion of the state’s remaining 38.6% stake will be offered at a discount to ordinary investors, and this could act as an overhang on NatWest shares.

Hunt’s main move was a cut in national insurance by two percentage points, but those with most to cheer from the statement from a market perspective were, appropriately enough, the pub and booze stocks as they reacted to a freeze on alcohol duty until 2024.

Among the biggest risers was Marston’s (MARS), which as well as running hundreds of pubs across the UK has a brewing joint venture with Carlsberg (CARL-B:CPH). Shareholders in Diageo (DGE), the maker of Guinness and a range of different spirits, also toasted the news with the shares building on earlier gains to trade 1.3% higher intra-day.

The pound slipped slightly against the dollar as the Office for Budgetary Responsibility downgraded growth expectations from their projections in the spring and increased their forecasts for inflation for 2024 and 2025.

Meanwhile, gilt yields, which spiked alarmingly in the wake of the disastrous mini-Budget in 2022, also moved higher.


Pension and ISA plans 

On pensions, the plan to consult on a lifetime provider model, allowing individuals to have contributions paid into their existing pension scheme when they change employer – a so-called ‘pension for life’ – received a qualified welcome from the industry.

William Stevens, head of financial planning at stockbroker Killik & Co, said: ‘This will aim to reduce the number of pensions accumulated within a lifetime and aim to create a “pension for life”, which can move with them through employment and their lifetime.

‘However, the implications for employers and pension administrators may make this more complex to implement and potentially increase the cost of many workplace pension schemes.’

In addition, measures were outlined aimed at making it easier for large pension schemes to invest into growth companies and areas like infrastructure while also pushing schemes to compare themselves against others in the market in terms of competitiveness.

Proposals to simplify ISAs included a reference to the digitalisation of ISA reporting and the inclusion of long-term asset funds and open-ended property funds with extended notice periods in the list of ISA-eligible investments. There are also plans to allow multiple ISA subscriptions and partial transfers between providers as well as a consultation on allowing certain fractional shares to be held in an ISA.

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