It feels as though we are at a pivotal point for stock markets as we head into the second quarter, with investors willing the indices on in the belief the interest rate cycle is nearing its end at the same time as fears of recession seem to be growing.

Technology stocks have been strong with the Nasdaq 100 index up as much as 20% since the start of January, making it the best-performing index in the world, as traders bet stresses in the banking system will force the US Federal Reserve to halt its campaign of rate rises and begin loosening policy.

However, not everyone is convinced. Marko Kolanovic, strategist at JPMorgan, argues the US Federal Reserve has ‘no intention to cut rates this year’ and risk sentiment is likely to turn negative, sending markets to the lows they saw last year (in other words 3,600 points on the S&P 500 and 6,800 points on the FTSE 100, or around 14% lower than where both indices are today).

Kolanovic isn’t alone – US hedge funds have the largest short positions on the S&P 500 index on record, and the monthly Bank of America fund manager survey has just racked up its longest stretch of extreme pessimism towards equity markets on record.

The curious thing is, for all the pessimism, stocks keep climbing and there is no sign of a downturn in S&P 500 earnings – quite the opposite, in fact, as index earnings are seeing steaming to a new high of $200 in 2023 and increasing a further 13% to $226 next year.

Which raises the question, is an economic recession possible without an earnings recession?

WHY ARE FORECASTS RISING?

When we checked the latest forecasts for S&P 500 back in December, the consensus was calling for reported earnings per share of $205 for 2023 which would be a new record and a 13% increase on what at the time were estimated to be $181 of earnings for 2022.

Now, analysts are forecasting a little over $200 for 2023 - $5 less than previously – after a revised $173 of earnings for 2022, meaning earnings are expected to climb more than 15% this year, and no less than $226 of reported earnings for 2024.

Unsurprisingly, the biggest contribution to S&P 500 earnings – around 21% – is seen coming from technology companies, which are expected to grow operating profits by around 12% this year and almost 20% next year.

Another big contributor is the financial sector, which is expected to contribute 18% of index earnings as operating profits soar 20% this year and a further 10% next year on higher net interest margins and continued inflows of deposits into big banks.

Healthcare stocks are seen contributing around 15% of S&P 500 earnings this year as profits climb 10%, but perhaps the biggest question mark is over the consumer discretionary sector – which contributes around 7% of index earnings – where operating profits are expected to jump 23% this year and 18% next year.

A strong labour market is good for consumption, and especially discretionary spending, but if a recession is pencilled in for the second half of this year, then expectations for earnings growth will surely have to be dialled back at some point.

As Lazard’s chief market strategist Ron Temple puts it, even if a US recession is averted, he estimates the risk of one occurring at between 45% and 55% over the next 12 to 18 months, the fact is the global economy is likely to be ‘sluggish’ through to 2024, ‘creating a challenging operating environment across a wider range of industries’.

WHAT IS THE FED SEEING?

In the minutes of its 22 March meeting, the Fed for the first time forecast a ‘mild’ recession starting later this year, and in its latest Beige Book, which brings together data on economic conditions across the US, nine of the 12 Federal Reserve districts surveyed showed no change in activity during March with three reporting ‘modest’ growth.

Consumer spending was generally seen as ‘flat to down’ with travel and tourism the bright spot, while manufacturing activity was also ‘flat to down’ even though supply chains have eased and freight costs are lower.

Significantly, lending volumes and loan demand ‘generally declined across consumer and business loan types’ as banks tightened lending standards amid ‘increased uncertainty and concerns over liquidity’.

All of which paints a picture of an economy which is muddling through at best, but the uncomfortable fact is cost pressures continue to build due to rising wages and higher prices for finished goods.

One thing the Fed wants to avoid at all costs is inflation expectations becoming embedded in the economy, which would make it much harder to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

Yet the University of Michigan inflation household expectations survey for April showed a surge in the one-year inflation outlook from 3.6% to 4.6% in the space of a month, meaning consumers already expect inflation to remain elevated.

The job of bringing inflation down is clearly far from done, and a cut in rates later this year (which the market is currently estimating at 0.6%) is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Therefore, we would take the current forecasts for S&P 500 earnings – which have underpinned the rally so far this year – with a large dose of salt and prepare for disappointment particularly in sectors which are expected to do the ‘heavy lifting’ like technology, financials and consumer discretionary.

WHICH ARE THE STOCKS TO WATCH?

The obvious place to start is technology, where a 19 April update from IT solutions provider CDW Corp (CDW:NASDAQ) has already put the cat among the pigeons.

The firm warned sales would miss its previous guidance due to ‘intensifying economic uncertainty’ and lowered its forecast for US IT spending this year from flat to a decline in the high single digits, dragging down shares in enterprise software stocks.

In late March, chipmaker Micron (MU:NASDAQ) reported its sales and earnings had cratered due to oversupply among its customers and flagging sales of PCs and smartphones.

So where is all the growth going to come from? As Shares went to press, the big tech beasts such as Alphabet (GOOG:NASDAQ), Amazon.com (AMZN:NASDAQ), Intel (INTC:NASDAQ), Meta Platforms (META:NASDAQ) and Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ) were in the process of reporting.

After these, all eyes will be on Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ), which is arguably more of a consumer discretionary stock than a technology company, but which delivered a whopping $36 billion of operating profit in the quarter to December and is forecast to have generated even higher earnings in the three months to March. It reports on 4 May.

Away from technology, while most of the banks have already reported, earnings payment firms Mastercard (MA:NYSE) and Visa (V:NYSE) will give a useful steer on how confident consumers are and whether they are struggling financially.

Health care earnings should be resilient, but it will pay to watch how big players like Abbvie (ABBV:NYSE), Eli Lilly (LLY:NYSE), Merck (MRK:NYSE) and Pfizer (PFE:NYSE) perform and how the market reacts if earnings come up short.

Finally, in early May we get the first quarter report from $700 billion investment firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B:NYSE) which, once its controlled holdings are considered, is ‘more broadly aligned with the economic future of the United States than is the case at any other US company’ in the view of owner-manager Warren Buffett.

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