It has been a tricky couple of weeks for investors. The higher or lower speculation over interest rates, particularly in the US, has changed so rapidly it can make you feel like a contestant on Bruce Forsyth’s Play Your Cards Right.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank in quick succession, and more recently, a UBS (UBS:SWX) rescue for Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse (CSGN:SWX), has left investors’ nerves frazzled and sparked worries across global share markets.

Oil prices have slumped, gold is soaring, bond yields have fallen and so have stock markets. The FTSE 100 has lost about 9% since the SVB threat emerged on 8 March, and hundreds of billions of market value has been stripped from global banks.

How investors handle the inherent risks of an iffy economic backcloth and the volatility it will likely bring could make a big difference to portfolio performance over the months and years ahead. If interest rates do stay higher for longer, what should investors do?

As is often the case in uncertainty, dull is usually sensible – don’t panic, be patient, stay invested in a diversified asset pool, and steadily and systematically put money to work at what, in due course, could look like attractive market levels.

Bond funds for fixed income exposure

• iShares GBP Corporate Bond ETF (SLXX) has exposure to sterling denominated investment grade corporate bonds, such as HSBC (HSBA), AT&T (T:NYSE) and Verizon Communications (VZ:NYSE).

• Lyxor UK Government Bond 0-5Y ETF (GIL5) has exposure to short-dated UK government bonds.

• iShares UK Gilts 0-5 ETF (IGLS) also runs a portfolio that includes exposure to short-dated UK government bonds.

• Artemis Corporate Bond Fund (BKPWGV3) has exposure to UK corporate bonds but has a global mandate, including Heathrow Funding, NatWest (NWG) and ING Groep (INGA:AMS).

• Allianz Strategic Bond Fund (BYT2QW8) can invest across the bond universe and has big exposure to US government bonds, although it includes Canadian, Australian and Korean government bonds too.

WHY DO HIGH INTEREST RATES MATTER?

Central banks are trying to strike a delicate balance to achieve a ‘soft landing’ for the economy, or in other words, dampening demand to gradually ease inflation without sending it spiralling into recession. Get it wrong, they crash the economy.

In everyday terms, higher interest rates mean it is more expensive to borrow money, making mortgages, car loan and credit cards more expensive for consumers to service. Businesses also pay more to borrow the money they need to grow their operations, cost of capital. That’s why, in response to rising rates, both consumers and businesses tend to rein in their spending, which slows economic growth and eventually lowers the prices of goods and services.

Typically, when the Federal Funds Rate rises, it pushes interest rates for other bonds higher as well. And when interest rates rise, bond prices tend to fall.

The effect isn’t the same across the board. A bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes depends on several factors, including its maturity date and coupon (the income from a bond). Bonds with long maturities and low coupons are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

For investors looking to sell a bond before it reaches maturity, a rise in rates may mean they need to sell at a discount to face value to compete with newer, higher yielding bonds coming to market. However, if you buy and hold individual bonds to maturity, rising interest rates may be less of a concern, as you’ll receive your full principal back at maturity, provided the issuer doesn’t default.

For investors whose primary objective is income, rising rates mean some fixed-income assets may offer attractive yields. Higher yields also tend to make bonds more attractive relative to riskier assets like stocks.

‘I would argue that the interest you’re being offered from short-dated bonds is a bit of a gift,’ says James Harries, manager of investment trust Securities Trust of Scotland (STS).

The yield on two-year nominal UK gilts is currently around 3.35%, while a two-year US treasury offers 4.1%. Nominal 10-year gilts and treasuries yield 3.4% and 3.5% respectively. This may look attractive to many investors versus higher risk equities right now, especially those in retirement already and living off their portfolio income, if they think about duration risk.

‘Investors should be using index-linked bonds instead of nominal bonds, at least where you’ve got longer-dated stuff,’ says Capital Gearing Trust’s (CGT) co-manager, Chris Clothier.

‘Outside of war and revolution, the only thing that really threatens an investor in government bonds is inflation, both on the bond and equity sides, as we saw in the 1970s.’

IMPACT ON EQUITIES

Rising rates tend to weigh on stock valuations, as they can drag on corporate profits and growth potential. This effect often plays out in anticipation of Fed action. As investors saw during the first half of 2022, stocks fell from their peaks as the Fed was just beginning its rate hike campaign.

This increase in real yields matters to stock market investors because it is a key input into the valuation models that are used to determine what is a fair value for a share, or indeed the market. It has a particularly negative impact on those shares that are expected to deliver lots of growth over many years because that future growth in earnings is worth less in today’s money when it is ‘discounted’ back using a higher real yield.

Different areas of the market may react differently

• Growth stocks: When interest rates are trending higher, it can clip the wings of pricey growth stocks, whose valuations are predicated on future returns. When rates go up, it instantly raises the bar on far-out profits needed to justify today’s stock prices.

• Dividend payers: With bonds now offering investors potentially higher coupon rates and less risk, dividend payers may need to increase their yield to compete. Higher interest rates can also pressure corporate profitability and, therefore, make it harder to maintain and grow dividends, particularly for companies with large debts.

• Financials: The financial sector is one area where higher interest rates may serve as a tailwind since lenders can potentially earn more on loans. Historically, banks and financial institutions have outperformed the S&P 500 during periods of rising rates, according to data from Morgan Stanley.

Against a backdrop of persistent inflation, geopolitical turmoil and market volatility, investors may feel like they are navigating unfamiliar waters as the Fed continues to tighten policy. According to Morgan Stanley, this leads to several strategies that may be worth exploring, with the help of a financial adviser, or if you’re confident enough in your own investment experience, on your own.

• Strategic bond investment. For many investors, fixed income remains an important part of a well-diversified portfolio. Bond laddering (buying bonds with different maturities) is one way to control the amount of exposure investors have to rising rates, while diversifying bond holdings.

• Actively managed strategy. Benchmark equity indices like the FTSE 100, S&P 500 and MSCI World have become dominated by a handful of mega-cap growth stocks, creating concentration risk for investors whose portfolios are heavily allocated to passive index funds. Actively managed funds are designed to outperform market benchmarks.

WHERE FUND MANAGERS SEE OPPORTUNITIES

‘We think there are three things’ investors need to consider in an inflationary environment - consumer discretionary spend, the effect of raised interest rates on a business, and the sort of qualities to look for in a business likely to be resilient in an inflationary environment,’ says Stephen Yiu, manager of Blue Whale Growth (BD6PG78).

Pressure on consumer discretionary spend is why the fund sold its stake in Amazon (AMZN) more than a year ago. Yiu much prefers the like of Visa (V:NYSE) and Mastercard (MC:NYSE), which he argues ‘should be resilient here as they continue to take their cut regardless of what sort of goods the consumer is buying - necessities, discretionary or otherwise’.

David Cumming, head of UK equities at Newton Investment Management, believes that the UK will outperform global indices this year, certainly against the US, as interest rates are going to peak, while inflation has peaked, in his view.

‘I personally think we’ll only get another 25-basis point hike in the UK, but Andrew Bailey is not the easiest guy to read. But in the US, it feels more like a war on rates, and we’ve not seen the US slowdown feed through into earnings yet.’

Some fund managers we spoke to were positive on banks on valuation grounds before the collapse of SVB. While they’re even cheaper now, sentiment remains poor towards the sector so only the brave should consider fishing in that industry for opportunities.

Blue Whale manager Yiu likes parts of the financials space, although not banks. Businesses such as Charles Schwab (SCHW:NYSE) in the US will benefit from higher rates on cash held on deposit by their customers, are well positioned Yiu believes.

Capital Gearing’s Clothier currently likes the energy space, which has seen oil exploration underinvested for years, in his view. ‘Like it or not, oil consumption is going to remain at roughly 100 million barrels per day or more until 2030.’

Despite this Shell (SHEL) is trading on a forward price to earnings multiple of 6.1, he calculates.

Newton’s Cummings also like the oil sector right now, although he is less sure about mining and commodity stocks. Retail he believes has already bounced but sees a potential opportunity in UK housebuilders once the Bank of England signals the end of rate hikes.

Healthcare, consumer staples, and enterprise technology are areas liked by Harries of Securities Trust of Scotland, who believes Starbucks (SBUX:NASDAQ) could be interesting. Luxury is also a space he is watching, cautiously. Once purely the preserve of the wealthy, that is no longer the case with millions of us buying upmarket branded clothes, make-up and jewellery, ‘which may make them more exposed to the macroeconomic cycle than they once were’.

WHERE INVESTORS ARE LEFT

Optimism about an imminent strong economic recovery and a pivot by the major central banks looks premature. Markets, economies and central banks are still searching for a new balance, a new equilibrium that reflects structural transition, cyclical developments, higher inflation and interest rates, stricter monetary policy and loose fiscal policy.

The path to this new balance, wherever it may be, was always expected to be rough and volatile and not linear. In fact, major central banks are witnessing stubbornly high inflation and still very few signs that recent monetary tightening will destroy demand and hence bring down living costs.

‘Every hiking cycle of the last 70 years has ended in recession or financial crisis,’ said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a note, and ‘after the last week we expect it’s not going to be different this time’. A sobering thought.

What can investors do about this? Rebalance here and there. Trying to pull out of the stock market to avoid a 10% or 15% decline is not a realistic proposition for a couple of reasons, according to Fidelity.

First, the cost of moving in and out of the market will eat into the potential benefit of watching the final move lower from the sidelines.

Second, trading a market low requires two decisions, not one - selling and then buying back in. Human nature being what it is, most of us will fluff that second call.

Whatever the near-term outcome, market sentiment is starting to turn to the prospect of lower interest rates after a period of falling inflation. Lower oil and gas prices compared with last year and supply chain adjustments could also turn into tailwinds for growth and company profits moving forward.

Elsewhere, the evidence mounts that green shoots are taking hold in the world’s number-two economy. Business surveys in China (published by the National Bureau of Statistics at the start of March) have shown big jumps in production and new orders since the end of 2022, suggesting companies are gearing up for a sizeable post-Covid bounce.

Diversification can be essential to help smooth the ride for investors in turbulent markets. Consider the benefits of a diversified portfolio that’s balanced across sector, region and market capitalisation, most experts say.

Capital Gearing’s Clothier and his colleagues had previously written-off the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio strategy, but the current market dynamics has changed his mind. ‘We think the 60/40 is really relevant, but you want to have the inflation protection on the bond part of the portfolio,’ he says. 

DISCLAIMER: Author Steven Frazer has a personal investment in Blue Whale Growth.

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