Geopolitical ructions and rising interest rates have seemingly failed to stem the appetite for global takeover activity according to analysis from consultants Earnest & Young (EY).

And the UK financial services industry recorded a seven-year high of 136 deals in in the first half of 2022, although their £8.6 billion combined value was 18% down on 2021 levels.

While a recent survey of UK M&A professionals conducted by data consultants Datasite pointed to increased optimism over the coming 12 months.

The latest big UK deal saw Canadian firm OpenText swoop for software firm Micro Focus (MCRO) in a $6 billion deal.

With UK shares looking relatively attractive against global peers and a huge war chest of private capital chasing deals, it seems reasonable to expect further UK takeovers in coming months. The average premium paid over the undisturbed price has been 38% over the past year.

While no one has a crystal ball, by uncovering the key trends driving corporate activity and using private equity insights from Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisors, Shares highlights three potential takeover targets from a list of potential candidates.

Dan Rasmussen is the founder of an investment firm which specialises in applying private equity techniques to investing in public markets.

RESILIENT GLOBAL ACTIVITY

The first half of 2022 has seen 2,274 global deals worth a combined $2 trillion which is up 35% by value and 13% by volume compared with the average of the last M&A cycle between 2015 and 2019, according to EY compiled data.

Global vice chair of EY, Andrea Guerzoni commented: ‘M&A activity was always going to go through a correction. But what we see is that unlike when Covid hit and deal activity came to a standstill, CEOs are still trying to look through the fog and are pursuing transactions that will help position their organisations for future growth.’

The SPAC (special purpose acquisition companies) mania seen in the first half of 2021 means year-on-year comparisons have suffered with deals down 27% by value and 18% by volume.

As the name suggests, a SPAC is a publicly traded company created for the purpose of acquiring or merging with an existing quoted company. There were 613 US SPAC listings in 2021 raising a total of $145 billion, almost double the amount raised in 2020.

According to the Economist there are more than 600 US companies still searching for a target.

In the UK the largest SPAC deal was the £254 million offer for advertising company M&C Saatchi (SAA:AIM) by AdvancedAdvT (ADVT), run by tech entrepreneur Vin Muria.

CUTTING THEIR CLOTH

Companies seem to have quickly adapted to the new geopolitical realities, changing their focus rather than avoiding new deals entirely. Guerzoni continues: ‘On the global stage while there is a strong appetite for cross-border deals, CEOs are more selective in who they do deals with, preferring to “friend-shore” their operations and pursue transactions with friendly pockets rather than applying a truly global approach.’

Arguably rising geopolitical tensions have accelerated the already high demand for IT security and cloud-based services and enterprise software which was a strong driver of deal activity in 2021.

While down 20% from a record first half in 2021 technology-focused deals are now at double the levels of the prior cycle and represent around a third of all deals. Surprisingly, the life sciences sector continues to lag despite the recent health crisis and significant availability of funds.

So far in 2022 the number of Life Sciences deals are down 58% year-on-year and 48% below the average of the last M&A cycle. That said, EY believes the rapid decline in biotech valuations from their 2021 peak bodes well for an ‘uptick’ in dealmaking for the sector.

PRIVATE EQUITY A MAINSTAY DRIVER OF M&A

Despite rising uncertainties and increased regulatory interventions private equity continues to be a key driver of corporate activity. Guerzoni says: ‘Driven by both the vast amount of private capital available and rising interest rates, I expect the role of private equity to be even more fundamental to the global economy.’

According to investment consultants Bain & Co globally the private equity industry generated its highest ever deal value in the last year and a half, equating to $1.7 trillion.

Despite this staggering figure however, the total amount of ‘dry powder’ or unused cash sitting on the side-lines is $3.7 trillion across all fund types according to data provider Prequin.

DECODING PRIVATE EQUITY

Given the rising influence of private capital and the huge unspent cash sitting across the spectrum of private equity funds, it would be helpful to see the world through the lens of private equity professionals.

One such professional is Dan Rasmussen who left the private equity world to start his own hedge fund business, Verdad Advisors.

While studying the investment returns of private equity funds at Bain & Co, Rasmussen uncovered some startling facts about how the returns were achieved. The rich dataset covered 2,500 deals spanning 30 years.

Around 95% of leveraged buyouts (takeovers involving adding large amounts of debt to fund the transaction) involved companies with an enterprise value (EV) of less than $1 billion. EV represents the total value of a company including its debts and cash.

He discovered that 25% of the cheapest deals as measured by EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) accounted for 60% of profits. EBITDA is often seen as a good substitute for cash flow.

The most expensive 60% of deals accounted for only 10% of profits. The dividing line defining what is cheap turns out to be a EV/EBITDA below seven times. In theory a ratio of seven implies a buyer would get the purchase price of the whole business back in seven years.

According to Rasmussen the bulk of private equity returns came from deleveraging, not from superior operating skills. Every pound of debt repaid not only added value for shareholders, (more profit goes to shareholders) but significantly reduced the risk of financial ruin.

That, in turn increases the potential for a higher PE (price to earnings) ratio when the business is sold or taken public.

While Verdad’s funds are not available to retail investors the insights provided by Rasmussen can be used as a base to identify potential takeover targets.

FINDING THE RIGHT TARGET

Using Stockopedia’s software Shares has created a screen to identify possible takeover targets. The key financial inputs are EV/EBITDA less than seven times and a debt to EBITDA ratio of less than three times.

Given that historically most deals have involved relatively small targets, the screen applies to companies with an EV between £200 million and £8 billion.

Typically, private equity finances deals with significant debt. This not only lowers taxes (interest payments reduce pre-tax profit) but, as already discussed, allows value to be created as debt is steadily reduced.

Debt can only be reduced if a business generates sufficient cash after paying all its expenses including interest payments. Therefore, the final criteria used is a five-year average free cash flow compared with total assets of at least 10%.

It is reassuring to find companies already involved in a takeover situation making the list of potential candidates. Oil and gas company Serica Energy (SQZ:AIM) recently received a second higher shares and cash offer from energy trading company Kistos (KIST:AIM) valuing Serica’s shares at 425p.

Serica promptly rejected the potential offer on the grounds it ‘significantly’ undervalued the company. Serica’s shares are up 81% year-to-date.

Bus company Go-Ahead (GOG) agreed a £15.50 per share takeover offer from Australia’s Kinteic Holding and Spanish-based Globalvia Inversiones on 4 August.

SHARES’ TOP TAKEOVER PICKS

ITV (ITV) 65.2p

ITV has been a perennial takeover target for years but changes to the landscape with the upcoming privatisation of Channel 4 might finally flush out some interest. London-based broadband and fixed telephony provider Liberty Global (LBTY:NASDAQ) is ITV’s largest shareholder and could look to bolster its position.

A privatised Channel 4 would be free to make its own programmes as well as seizing the opportunity to sell the rights of its independently made programmes to other countries and studios.

The long-term structural shift away from scheduled TV consumption towards streaming is creating a premium for quality content. ITV could be seen as a prized UK asset as the global content market undergoes consolidation.

The latest rating data showed ITV dominating the big TV genres with three out of the four most watched dramas on any channel or streaming service. The company is on track to achieve its biggest year yet in streaming, notching up more than one billion streams.

The cash generative nature of business and low EV/EBITDA ratio make ITV an attractive target for private equity looking to consolidate the industry.

There is an intriguing opportunity to consolidate the UK content market by merging Channel 4 with ITV.

Persimmon (PSN) £14.84

Shares in the UK housebuilder have halved in 2022 on worries over rising interest rates and recession fears hitting the demand for property. Persimmon (PSN) trades on a lowly 4.4 times EV/EBITDA and yet has demonstrated strong cash flow generation.

The company looks ripe an unsolicited approach from private equity which already has shown form and interest in the sector. According to analyst Clyde Lewis at Peel Hunt there have been eight sizeable deals completed over the last two years.

In 2021 McCarthy & Stone, St Modwen Properties and Sigma Capita were all acquired by private equity funds. Private equity firm Bridgepoint is reportedly putting Miller Homes up for sale with a price tag of £1 billion. It paid £650 million for the business in 2017.

Lewis believes there is likely to be further consolidation in the sector over the next few years.

Somero Enterprises (SOM:AIM) 449.5p

It is rather surprising to find concrete levelling equipment specialist Somero Enterprises (SOM:AIM) on the list of takeover candidates. Not because it is a bad business, quite the opposite – Somero has a quality business which is very cash generative, and it operates in a growth market.

The surprise is because it isn’t often that good quality growth businesses can be purchased so cheaply. The company has financial attributes which make it an attractive target for private equity. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 5.3 is low and implies a relatively quick payback of five years.

Additionally, the company sits on £42 million of net cash which would make a debt funded acquisition even cheaper.

The company operates in markets which have sustainable tailwinds. As more and more people shop online, the demand for modern fulfilment centres and large warehouses grows ever larger.

Somero is no stranger to private equity interest, as CEO John Cooney revealed to Shares back in 2017 saying, ‘they are poking around all the time’.

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