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Recent data suggests that US inflation may have peaked prompting investors to anticipate the Fed will ease
Thursday 18 Aug 2022 Author: Mark Gardner

The recent rally in US equity markets has been driven by figures showing the level of US inflation may have peaked.

Since its most recent low on 16 June the S&P 500 index has rallied by 16.7%.

The UK equity market has also risen during this period but to a far lesser extent with the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 rising by 6.7% and 8.6% respectively.

US consumer prices jumped 8.5% in July compared with the same month a year earlier, down from the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June.

As a result investors are now starting to factor in a shift in approach from the US Federal Reserve, implying less aggressive interest rate rises.

The table shows the magnitude of some of the gains made by individual US stocks since 16 June, some of which have also been supported by strong second quarter earnings reports.



Shares in Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ) have surged by 38.5% since 16 June. Its second quarter update showed 7% revenue growth, aided by an uptick in Amazon Web Services bookings, with total revenue coming in at $121.23 billion versus the $119.09 billion estimate.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) advanced 40.8% over the same time-frame. Its earnings in mid-July beat consensus estimates. Revenue came in at $16.9 billion and earnings per share at $2.27. Tesla shareholders also approved a three-for-one stock split which will take effect on 25 August.

Shares in streaming platform Netflix (NFLX:NASDAQ) have also rallied, supported by results which were not as bad as feared.

The UK stock market has experienced more muted gains than its counterpart across the Atlantic. This is in part due to its bias towards areas like commodities and financials which typically trade on lower valuations. The FTSE 100 had also held up better than the S&P 500 in the first half of 2022.

Growth orientated stocks are more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations than so-called ‘value’ stocks.

However, several UK companies have performed particularly strongly.

Avast (AVST) has risen 43.5% after the UK Competition & Markets Authority said it has provisionally cleared NortonLifeLock’s acquisition of the cybersecurity firm, following an in-depth probe of the deal.

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