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Vaccine developments are still providing considerable support to equities even if we haven’t seen a repeat of the Pfizer-inspired one-day mega rally
Thursday 26 Nov 2020 Author: Martin Gamble

Positive vaccine news flow for the third successive Monday appears to be eliciting increasingly weaker share price reactions.

For example, despite good news on 23 November from AstraZeneca (AZN) and Oxford University that vaccine candidate AD1222 was 70% effective in preventing Covid-19, markets barely moved that day.

This vaccine is thought to be cheaper and easier to distribute than competing vaccines, but AstraZeneca’s shares fell 3% on the day of the announcement as investors clearly expected more from the trial result.

The same pattern was seen last week after US firm Moderna reported that its vaccine was 95.5% effective at preventing Covid-19. Stock markets initially gained 2% to 3% before easing back, compared to the near-5% gain for the FTSE All-Share upon the Pfizer news.

The day after the AstraZeneca news proved to be better for markets, led by investors bidding up stocks in travel firms on hopes of earnings recovery, oil stocks rising on a stronger oil price, and Donald Trump accepting the US presidency transition to Joe Biden must begin, thus implying a smoother than expected handover.

There was a continuation of recent trends whereby investors sold down higher quality companies which have done well this year, in favour of buying the ones that have been bombed-out.

Pubs and leisure stocks got a shot in the arm after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said England would return to localised restrictions once the current lockdown ends on 2 December.

While pubs in tier three will only be allowed to provide a takeaway service those in the second tier which serve food will be allowed to fully reopen. Non-essential shops and gyms will reopen as will grass roots sports.

The downside is that leisure companies may not benefit too much if large parts of the country are put in tier three – we’ll find out on 26 November.

It wasn’t just stock markets which have received a boost in recent weeks from the welcome arrival of a vaccine. The riskier end of the bond market has also seen a significant uptick in investor interest.

Cruise ship company Carnival (CCC) was in demand, increasing the size of its unsecured private bond offering by an additional $650 million to an aggregate $1.95 billion.

Global cinema group Cineworld (CINE) secured an additional $450 million of debt but had to sweeten the deal by issuing warrants equivalent to around 10% of the company’s share capital.

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