Which tech stocks are left on the UK market after takeover spree?FEATURE The key issues that could move markets VOL 24 / ISSUE 37 / 22 SEPTEMBER 2022 / £4.49 INVESTORSNOWTHINGSNEEDTOKNOW
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22 September 2022 | SHARES | 3 Contents
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magazine. DISCLAIMER 05 VIEWEDITOR’S This is how investors might deal with the return of stagflation 06 NEWS Warning signals are mounting for markets as investors take fright / Why sentiment towards Netflix shares is starting to improve / What Mike Ashley’s exit from Frasers board means for its future direction 10 IDEASGREAT First Trust Cloud Computing ETF / SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust 14 FEATURE Six things investors need to know now: the key issues that could move markets 22 FEATURE What went wrong with Naked Wines for the shares to lose 90%? 23 FEATURE What will be left of UK tech stocks after swathe of takeovers? 28 MOULDRUSS The ‘Rule of 20’ is back and it tells us a lot about current markets 31 FUNDS How to ensure your dividends from property funds are reinvested 35 FUNDS What should I do when my fund manager departs? 39 ASK TOM I want to transfer my pension. Why do I have to pay for financial advice? 41 FINANCEPERSONAL Higher interest rates are good for savers but watch out for tax 44 INDEX Shares, funds, ETFs and investment trusts in this issue
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22 September 2022 | SHARES | 5 EDITOR’S DanielVIEW Coatsworth
The 1970s were characterised by an energy crisis, corporates hurt by higher costs and lower demand, and increased unemployment. Strikes were prevalent as workers felt hard done by. Sounds familiar? Many of these elements are motion today.
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Equity markets have struggled this year and that’s directly linked to rates going up and a gloomier economic outlook. Investment bank Berenberg says bull markets need support from strong corporate earnings or liquidity, or preferably both. Neither are currently in play. ‘Tighter money and earnings downgrades suggest extending headwinds will continue in the coming months,’ it comments.
NEWS SHARES September2022 Therehavebeenanincreasingnumberofnegativedevelopmentsinrecentweekssuggestinganabruptchangetotheeconomicoutlook Duringthesummermonthsitseemedlike marketswereplayingagameofchicken withtheUSFederalReserve,viewingany signofweakeconomicnewsas‘good’inthehope itmayconvincethecentralbanktopauseoreven reverseitspolicytightening. ButtheFedhasbeenresoluteinitsmessageand actions.Itsfocusisonpricestabilityanduntilit seesevidence pricescomingdownmeaningfully itwillkeepraisingrates.August’sstickierthanexpectedUSconsumerpriceinflationsignaledmoreratehikesoncards.ResearchbytheIMF(InternationalMonetaryFund)showsthatpersistentlyhighinflationcantriggeranupwardspiralinwages.ThisisrisktheFedseeminglywantstoavoidatallcosts. WhiletheUScentralbankdoesn’twant pronounceddownturn,it walkingatightline betweenslowinginflationandpushingtheworld’slargesteconomyintooutrightrecession.Meanwhileothercentralbankshavebeen Warning signals are mounting for markets as investors take fright singingfromthesamehymnsheet.TheSwedishRiksbanksurprisedmarketsafterhikinginterestratesbyfullpercentagepoint(20September)andwarnedmoretocome. BoththeBankofEnglandandtheEuropean CentralBankareexpectedtocontinueincreasinginterestrates.Forfirstindecadesitfeelslikecentralbanksdonothaveinvestors’backs.Effectivelyinvestorsarelookingataregimechangeforinterestratesafterdecadesoffallingborrowingcosts.Thequestioniscantheglobaleconomyhandlehigherborrowingcostsontopofrisinginflationandslowergrowth. PROFIT WARNINGS ON RISE Thereisincreasingevidencethathigherinterestratesarestaringtobiteafterseveralcompanieshaveissuedprofitwarnings.Oneofthemostsignificantprofitwarningshascomefromtransportandlogisticscompany Unfortunately, any further policy moves werethenputonhiatusbyaperiodofmourningafterdeath Queen Elizabeth II.News of an energy price freeze and support for businesses ahead this momentous event was very welcome – even if reportedly companiesmight have wait until November to take The tenure of Truss in Number startedwith solution to theenergy crisis. Businessesand consumers had been starved of certaintyforweeksastheConservativeleadershipcrisis rumbled on, immediate actionwasnecessarywhen shetookoverfromBoris Johnson. By The Shares TeamThe considerable amount of noise in the markets means investors may struggle to get a grip on the differentfactorswhichmightinfluencesharepricesinthenear-term. Tohelpyoubetterunderstandthekeyissues,we’veroundedupsixareaswhichcouldhavea significantimpactonmarketsfortherestoftheyearandinto2023. ThekeyissuesthatcouldmovemarketsNOWTHINGSINVESTORSNEEDTOKNOW
There are a lot of factors which could move markets, so it pays to stay on top of the moving parts. This news story and this feature provide more details on the key issues that matter.
This is how investors might deal with stagflation
There are plenty of these types of companies on the UK stock market, which goes some way to explaining why the FTSE 100 has been the third best performing stock market index in the world year to date with ‘only’ a 2% loss, also helped by having lots of commodity producers benefiting from higher prices.
or months investors have feared a period of stagflation and the latest round of inflation figures would suggest this fear is closer to becoming a reality. Stagflation is characterised as high inflation and low or no economic growth. Investors would be wise to look back at previous periods of stagflation to spot the winners and losers.
The financial sector theoretically benefits from rising interest rates, yet investors need to balance potential rewards with the risks. Against the opportunity to make bigger margins and generally being well capitalised, banks risk a rise in bad debts during weaker economic periods.
One argument is that gold is suffering because of growing competition from higher-yielding investments. For example, central banks are pushing up interest rates which lifts yields on bonds and returns on cash are improving. However, historically gold has not always fallen when interest rates go up.
It’s worth looking back to see which assets did well or struggled when inflation was high and economic growth low
Being more cautious in the current environment might be wise and companies with defensive elements – i.e. their goods and services are in demand regardless of the economic environment –are natural places to look.
World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill last week told Reuters: ‘Six months ago we were really concerned about a slowing recovery and very high prices of some commodities, and now I think we are much more concerned about a generalised stagflation, which brings back really bad memories of the mid-1970s and the lost decades.’
Back then, some of the best places to have made money were shares in energy companies and real estate owners. Gold was also a strong performer, yet this year the precious metal has not lived up to expectations. Last week gold fell to $1,654 per ounce, its lowest level in more than two years.
The best performing major index this year is Brazil’s Bovespa (+4.9%) followed by Mumbai’s S&P BSE 100 (+2.4%), whereas the S&P 500 index in the US is down nearly 19%.
There have been an increasing number of negative developments in recent weeks suggesting an abrupt change to the economic outlook
rates by a full percentage point (20 September) and warned more was to come.
PROFIT WARNINGS ON THE RISE
Meanwhile other central banks have been singing from the same hymn sheet. The Swedish Riksbank surprised markets after hiking interest
US interest rates (%) 2005 2010 2015 2020420Chart: Shares magazine • Source: Refinitiv
There is increasing evidence that higher interest rates are staring to bite after numerous companies issued profit warnings in recent weeks.
NEWS 6 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
For the first time in decades it feels like central banks do not have investors’ backs. Effectively investors are looking at a regime change for interest rates after decades of falling borrowing costs.
Warning signals are mounting for markets as investors take fright
. The firm is seen as a bellwether, giving advanced warning on the health of the
One of the most significant warnings has come from transport and logistics company FedEx (FDX:NYSE)
Research by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) shows that persistently high inflation can trigger an upward spiral in wages. This is a risk the Fed seemingly wants to avoid at all costs.
While the US central bank doesn’t want a pronounced downturn, it is walking a tight line between slowing inflation and pushing the world’s largest economy into outright recession.
The question is can the global economy handle higher borrowing costs on top of rising inflation and slower growth?
But the Fed has been resolute in its message and actions. Its focus is on price stability and until it sees evidence of prices coming down meaningfully it will keep raising rates. August’s stickier than expected US consumer price inflation signaled more rate hikes are on the cards.
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Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to continue increasing interest rates.
uring the summer months it seemed like markets were playing a game of chicken with the US Federal Reserve, viewing any sign of weak economic news as ‘good’ in the hope it may convince the central bank to pause or even reverse its policy tightening.
Copper Grade A 3 months ($ per tonne) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Chart:10,0008,0006,0004,000Shares magazine • Source: Refinitiv
LME
NEWS 22 September 2022 | SHARES | 7
A related sector theme which seems to be becoming a notable trend is the slowdown in e-commerce activity. German warehouse equipment maker Kion (KGX:XETRA) warned (14 Sep) on third-quarter profits after citing supply chain shortages and a sharp increase in raw material and energy prices.
weakness in robotics players servicing e-commerce has clear implications for UK online retailer Ocado (OCDO). The shares fell 8% (14 September) after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral.
Demand for copper is closely related to the strength of the world economy and recent price action is potentially worrying. After peaking in March, the price has dropped by around 30% while mining shares have also weakened.
The Fed started to shrink the size of its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet on 1 June by $45 billion per month. Since the start of September, it has increased to $90 billion per month.
Another bellwether providing insight into the state of the global economy is the price of copper, which is why it is often referred to as Dr Copper.
This is known as QT (quantitative tightening) and as the name suggests it is intended to tighten financial market conditions. It is a reversal of quantitative easing where the Fed purchased assets from banks to increase banking sector
global economy.
Shares in the Norwegian company fell 12% to new all-time lows after saying it experienced cancellations from some e-commerce clients. The
The company missed first quarter earnings estimates to the end of August by 33% and cut 2023Managementguidance. laid the blame on slowing demand across the globe, creating a huge downdraft in its shares which fell 22% on the news, denting sentiment across markets.
COMMODITY WEAKNESS
The drop in FedEx had a knock-on effect across the sector with the shares of UPS (UPS:NYSE), Royal Mail (RMG), and Deutsche Post (DPH:XETRA) all registering weakness.
What caught the attention was the suddenness of the slowdown. CEO Raj Subramaniam said: ‘Global volumes declined as macro-economic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the US.’
Whileliquidity.theprecise effect of QT is unknown, (the Fed doesn’t provide guidance) it is generally thought to be equivalent to hiking rates. [MGam]
This followed a fall of 15% after its joint venture with Marks and Spencer (MKS), Ocado Retail, lowered full year guidance. The company said a combination of cost headwinds and customers trading down is impacting margins.
THREAT POSED BY QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING
The company now expects adjusted net income to be in the range of €200 million to €310 million, well below the €674 million expected by analysts. Significantly higher material, energy and logistics costs combined with weaker demand also led peer robotics company Autostore (AUTO:OSLO) to issue a profit warning (14 Sep).
hares in TV and film streaming platform Netflix (NFLX:NASDAQ) are down 60% yearto-date amid a subscriber exodus and fears the streaming market is becoming oversaturated. However, sentiment towards Netflix is starting to improve after various analysts upgraded their ratings on the shares.
This could reflect the fact that Ashley will remain a key advisor, the major shareholder and current CEO Michael Murray is Ashley’s son-in-law.Murray’s previous role as ‘head of elevation’ suggests he may take the group more upmarket, but this is a comparatively untested strategy compared with Ashley’s previous focus on value.
Why towardssentimentNetflix shares is starting to improve
Whileboard.Ashley stepped down as CEO in May this year to become executive director, to all intents and purposes he was still seen as the man leading the way. Shares in Frasers slipped 1.6% on the latest news as the market largely took the development in its stride.
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Various analysts become more optimistic ahead of cheaper subscription tier launch and password sharing crackdown
With the planned launch of the advertising tier later this year, ‘there is a clear catalyst on the horizon, and valuation is intrinsically attractive,’ argues the analyst. Meanwhile, JPMorgan sees investor sentiment towards Netflix picking up, and Macquarie and Oppenheimer have also upgraded their ratings on the stock.
consumer confidence and big pressure on household budgets.
Four decades since starting his retail empire with a single sports shop in Maidenhead, Mike Ashley has announced plans to step down from Sports Direct owner Frasers’ (FRAS)
Fraser’s record results for the 12 months to 24 April 2022 announced in July could be a hard act to follow, with guidance for pre-tax profit in the current financial year of £450 million to £500 million looking demanding.Murrayis also likely to pursue a less combative approach with the investment community than Ashley. [TS]
Netflix is embracing advertising after struggling to hold on to the supernormal subscriber gains generated during the lockdowns necessitated by the Covid pandemic.
What Mike Ashley’s exit from Frasers board means for its future direction
Son-in-law already in place as CEO and he may look to take the retailer further upmarket
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Netflix projects the cheaper, advertisingsupported tier could reach about 40 million viewers by the third quarter of 2023. This new subscription package will suit consumers struggling to pay for standard Netflix subscriptions as the cost of living soars around the globe. [JC]
NEWS 8 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
Netflix’s new advertising-supported cheaper subscriber tier, combined with efforts to clamp down on password sharing, represent ‘catalysts that can drive a material re-acceleration in revenue growth’ according to Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney, who has upgraded his rating on the stock from ‘in-line’ to ‘outperform’.
It also might prove a challenge given an extremely weak backdrop for the retail sector amid tumbling
Investors should not think cloud computing is a bus already missed; this is a growth theme widely predicted to have decades of expansion.
That’s why we believe First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (FSKY) is not just a play for the next few years, as we (hopefully) recover from economic hardship, but for the next decade at least.
Fund size: £267 million
Apple’s (AAPL: NASDAQ) gradual shift from hardware to software services and apps is one
growth trajectory implies annual average compound growth of 18.6% a year between 2020 and 2027, according to the Cloud Computing Market Size report put together by Fortune. The study estimated global cloud revenues were approximately $199 billion in 2019.
he emergence of cloud computing has been one of the most successful investment themes over the past decade, and it promises to create wealth for investors long into the future.
EARLY IN THE ADOPTION JOURNEY
Yet as the eye-popping forecasts indicate, there is a lot more to come, say experts. ‘Cloud is as hot
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF might have struggled this year, but longer term looks attractive
Cloud computing involves the delivery of computing services such as servers, storage and databases over the internet (‘the cloud’). Businesses around the world are adopting this method of working, which means big earnings growth for the companies providing cloud services.
It’s a simple, low cost way to get exposure to the key companies providing cloud computing services.
For example, Fortune Business Insights forecasts global cloud revenues will top $760 billion by 2027. That’s bigger than Belgium’s GDP last year, based on World Bank figures, or nearly twice the size of ThisDenmark’s.stunning
WHAT IS CLOUD COMPUTING?
of the major reasons why investors have rallied behind the story in recent years and throughout the Covid outbreak. That has earned the business a $2.48 trillion price tag, making it the world’s most valuable listed business.
FIRST TRUST CLOUD COMPUTING ETF BUY (FSKY) £24.19
10 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
Look at the top S&P 500 companies and you’ll find it littered with businesses that are deeply embedded in cloud computing, helping drive the astonishing success of Alphabet (GOOG:NASDAQ), Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ) and Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ), among others.
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Cloud computing is a megatrend investors need in their portfolios
Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ), essentially a car maker and energy company, updates all of its in-car software via the cloud, and collects mountains of valuable driver data this way.
ETF
a topic as ever, but the move by companies onto the cloud, in our view, is only the beginning of the digital revolution,’ says Indraneel Arampatta, an analyst at technology website Megabuyte.
The portfolio applies a score to the different areas of the cloud universe – software-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service and infrastructure-as-aservice pure play firms. The ETF rebalances the portfolio quarterly, while it embraces less mature, smaller companies where others might stick to larger cloud plays.
investors. It charges 0.6% a year and it takes stakes in each of its benchmark ISE CTA Cloud Computing Index stocks to mirror the performance.
The Covid pandemic, various lockdown measures and the swathe of organisations that had been forced to work from home have simply accelerated a shift that was already happening.
We can’t rule out that performance will struggle for longer than we anticipate, although performance data seems to suggest good growth potential over a multi-year cycle.
Its investable universe, initially filtered for minimum market cap and free float limitations, is broken down into three buckets: pure plays, nonpure plays and broad technology conglomerates. This offers investors access to both the known and unknown names associated with cloud computing.
The First Trust Cloud Computing ETF is one of the larger funds for this theme available to UK
Like many tech-related funds, performance has struggled this year as investors became worried about inflation and how high interest rates might go. This impacts how the market treats investments where future cash flows are likely to be much higher than they are today.
In a (largely) post-pandemic world, it has become clear that the cloud has touched massive swathes of our economy and society, with many of the changes to our day-to-day lives here to stay, from how we use financial services and order shopping to keeping in touch with people or consume entertainment. For example, Netflix (NFLX:NASDAQ) simply couldn’t exist without the cloud.
Amazon AWS 33% Microsoft Azure 18% Google Cloud 9% Alibaba Cloud 6% IBM Cloud 5% Salesforce 3% Tencent Cloud 2% Oracle Cloud 2% % Table: Shares magazine • Source: Synergy Research, Statista, June 2020
For example, the average sales growth of companies in the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF is roughly four times that of the S&P 500. This means few of its fastest-growing investee companies feature in the S&P 500 at all.
Working from home naturally leans heavily on the cloud, with professional-level communications, including text, video and voice calls, needed as well as remote access to critical applications and superfast mobile and broadband networks.
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
Worldwide cloud market share
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 11
FIRST TRUST ETF OPTION
(%) 2021Oct 2022Jan Apr JulChart:0−20 Shares magazine • Source: Refinitiv
The ETF’s share price is down 25.5% this year, holding up marginally better than the Nasdaq Composite (down 27.1%). But the three-year gain of 23.9% is perhaps a better illustration through good years and bad. Since inception in December 2018, the ETF has increased by 44.3% in value. [SF]
directly to buildings at the point of use rather than from the grid reduces costs and wastage which occurs through transmission and improves energy security.
The global market for energy efficiency is worth an estimated $300 billion per year, and SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust (SEIT) focuses on reducing energy costs, usage and wastage in buildings, which represent around 40% of totalSupplyingconsumption.energy
In terms of income, the trust is targeting 6p in dividends for the year to March 2023, a 7% annual increase, which translates into a 5.3% yield. The ongoing charge is 1% and the shares trade on a 5.2% premium to net asset value. [IC]
Disclaimer: The author owns shares in SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust. Energy Efficiency Income Trust
As well as investing in projects which provide cheap, clean, reliable onsite energy by installing solutions like cogeneration plants and solar arrays, SDCL Energy Efficiency invests in projects to reduce energy demand inside buildings through the installation of LED lighting, low-energy heating and
LED lighting is one way for firms to save money, yet many organisations have yet to make the switch. The NHS, for example, is still using oldfashioned lights across three quarters of its estate.
SDCL
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SDCL INCOMEEFFICIENCYENERGYTRUST
BUY (SEIT) 114p
SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust is in the right place at the right time
(p) 2019 2020 2021 202210050Chart: Shares magazine • Source: FE Analytics
Market Cap: £1.27 billion
‘Energy efficiency has never been more valuable, it’s about getting the same level of output using less energy,’ says SDCL Energy Efficiency’s investment manager Jonathan Maxwell.
One of the quickest and easiest ways to reduce energy usage and carbon emissions is to be more efficient in the way energy is used in the first place.
Demand for efficiency solutions had been increasing as decarbonisation became a priority for governments and companies and fossil fuel prices started to rise, but the invasion of Ukraine in March was ‘a watershed moment’ for the industry says‘EnergyMaxwell.prices
This trust benefits from the race for businesses to be more energy efficient
12 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
While building new nuclear power stations and wind farms may help to limit global warming, building them takes many years and the payback must be measured in decades whereas saving energy today has an immediate impact.
ventilation systems and better insulation.
have soared, and the structure of the UK and the European energy market has been challenged, so what was previously attractive has now become incredibly important given the high price environment,’ he adds.
Moreover, the invasion of Ukraine has been a wake-up call in terms of European energy security, driving more companies to look at installing onsite generation to become more resilient, which in turn is ‘a huge opportunity’ for SDCL Energy Efficiency.
ompanies are under pressure to cut costs, which means energy saving measures are a priority discussion in the boardroom.
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News of an energy price freeze and support for businesses ahead of this momentous event was very welcome – even if reportedly companies might have wait until November to take
The considerable amount of noise in the markets means investors may struggle to get a grip on the different factors which might influence share prices in the near-term.
The key issues that could move markets NEEDTHINGSNOWINVESTORSTOKNOW
Unfortunately, any further policy moves were then put on hiatus by a period of mourning after the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
By The Shares Team
To help you better understand the key issues, we’ve rounded up six areas which could have a significant impact on markets for the rest of the year and into 2023.
The tenure of Liz Truss in Number 10 started with a solution to the energy crisis. Businesses and consumers had been starved of certainty for weeks as the Conservative leadership crisis rumbled on, so immediate action was necessary when she took over from Boris Johnson.
That narrative was all but abandoned on 13 September with the release of August’s US consumer price inflation data.
US
A goal of being a low-tax economy fits with the new prime minister’s apparent commitment to ‘Laffer curve’ economics – which works on the hypothesis that cutting taxes encourages growth
The key winner in sector terms so far is energy. Truss stuck to her guns on no additional windfall taxes to fund her energy package and announced plans to release more licences in the North Sea and withdraw the moratorium on fracking for shale gas.
INTEREST RATES RISE
Head of UK equities at Lazard Asset Management Alan Custis commented: ‘The new Government faces significant economic challenges and it must act quickly to address them. It must demonstrate financial responsibility to prevent sterling continuing to slide and can do this by maintaining the independence of the Bank of England. Otherwise interest rates risk becoming once again a political tool.’ MIGHT IN THE AND UK?
But there was a heated debate about how far the central bank would go amid signs of slowing economic growth.
advantage of the £150 billion support scheme.
and therefore increases total tax revenue.
The measures announced, including capping average household energy prices at £2,500, could take as much as 5% off peak levels of inflation according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Investors recognised the Federal Reserve had to regain the initiative and talk tough on rates.
Truss’ decision not to wage an additional levy on the energy space has implications for sterling, particularly given her commitment to tax cuts. This is likely to result in a significant increase in government borrowing.
The prevalent investment narrative over the summer was that hawkish US central bank policy was a price worth paying to bring inflation down, despite the risk it would cause a recession.
Renewable energy producers could also breathe a sigh of relief on a windfall tax, though they still face a nervous wait to see if, as has been widely speculated, they might have to accept long-term contracts at fixed prices below current market levels.
Another area to watch closely is the new Government’s commitment to the independence of the Bank of England. Any hint there might be political interference in the central bank’s decision making would be taken negatively on the currency markets.
HOW HIGH
Given a difficult macro-economic backdrop and the current squeeze on consumer spending, are analysts taking too sunny a view about earnings for both 2022 and 2023?
While year-on-year headline inflation cooled to 8.3%, it didn’t slow as fast as expected while the Fed’s preferred ‘core’ measure increased by 0.6% month-on-month, double the market forecast.
The measure is based on the difference between nominal yields and inflation-protected yields for the same maturities.
Implied inflation expectations derived from the pricing of fixed income markets had been falling despite hawkish comments from the Fed.
policy too aggressively.
Either the bond market believes the Fed will hike aggressively and successfully bring inflation down, or it believes the Fed is making a policy error.
too optimistic’.
This might seem odd, but remember markets are forward looking and the Fed can therefore influence the bond markets by broadcasting its intentions.Bothtwo and 10-year bond yields had backedoff from the year’s highs before the latest inflation print.
Morgan Stanley certainly appears to think so, arguing that consensus estimates for European earnings per share growth of 7% and 9% (stripping out the impact of the more volatile commodity sectors) are ‘far
Golub asked, ‘Why would the Fed unnecessarily drive us into recession, kill several million American jobs if in fact inflation is heading in the right direction?’
When two-year yields are above 10-year yields the curve is described as inverted which signals a heightened risk of recession.
Golub points to signals in the US Treasury market where the one-year breakeven inflation rate is trading below 2%.
UK interest rates are also expected to keep rising given that inflation remains high. The Bank of England publishes its latest policy decision today (22 September) and the consensus forecast is for rates to move from 1.75% to 2.25%. Market experts believe the UK rate could hit 4% by May 2023.
The front end of the yield curve (shortdated bonds) jumped more than the long end, increasing the two-year/10-year yield inversion.
One strategist in the latter camp is Jonathan Golub at Credit Suisse who said in a Bloomberg interview that the Fed is at risk of tightening
These rate hikes have major implications for consumers and businesses, principally a higher cost of borrowing and therefore less money left over to spend. [MGam] ANALYSTS COULD BE TOO ABOUT EARNINGS
OPTIMISTIC
The latest inflation data has thrown the cat among the pigeons and leaves investors questioning whether inflation can fall fast enough to prevent an even more aggressive policy response.Itisnow widely believed the Fed will push up interest rates to at least 4% by the end of 2022, its highest level since 2005. The central bank was scheduled to have issued its latest rate decision and new economic projections as this edition of Shares was being finalised.
US stock markets registered their biggest one-day drop since the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields moved higher (and prices lower) with two-year yields moving above 3.8%, levels not seen since 2007.
WHY
According to US-based investment consultancy Yardeni Research, quoting figures from Refinitiv, average consensus earnings growth forecasts for constituents of the MSCI USA index stood at 8% for both 2022 and 2023 as of the beginning of September. And that’s even after those forecasts had been trending down for several months.
As Bank of America observed in a recent research note the weather has a real impact on results. As a point of comparison, it noted: ‘The warm weather seen in the third quarter of 2018 brought a wave of profit warnings across the European apparel industry, and a steep increase in inventory.’
In terms of sectors which look particularly vulnerable, those with high levels of energy consumption may see the biggest pressure on profitability, such as engineering and construction.Apotential wildcard is the weather. While the mild start to autumn may be a blessing in terms of energy prices it could also have a negative impact on an already troubled retail sector, given the impact on sales of higher value items like heavy jackets and coats.
and the resulting impact on global supply chains. There are so many moving parts to consider that it would be difficult to keep up with all of them.
You can also understand why there is some healthy scepticism about such high levels of forecast growth. Though financial results to date, including the second quarter earnings season, have revealed a degree of corporate resilience, these are backward-looking and reflect only a part of the impact of the current inflationary pressures and slowing growth.
As a very crude point of comparison the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast, published in July, anticipates GDP growth in advanced economies of just 2.5% and 1.4% for 2022 and 2023 respectively.
You can see why analysts might have been caught out by an extraordinary set of circumstances, not least the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the wide variety of implications that has had, but also the Covid situation in China
EUROPE UNDER SEVERE
Energy remains in focus across European equity markets as reports emerge that the Kremlin will continue to squeeze gas shipments across the Continent to maintain its pressure on the EU over the Ukraine conflict.
The Morningstar Europe NR index lost 5% in euro terms during August, but with a big difference across company styles, Morningstar said, with growth company shares suffering much more than value stocks. ‘The large growth segment of our European style box lost 6.2% in euros, while the large value segment managed to limit the loss to 0.7%.’
forecasts of 9%, preliminary estimates showed, with energy and food prices behind the rise.
The August report found losses from the likes of ASML (ASML:AMS) impacted heavily in the growth style’s return, falling 12.5% in euro terms. In contrast, UK oil companies, for example, stood out among the value stocks. BP (BP.) and Shell (SHEL) gained 8.2% and 2.8% in euros respectively during August.
‘In the last couple of weeks alone, our economists have raised their forecasts for European Central Bank rate hikes and cut their GDP numbers to signal a deeper upcoming recession,’ said Graham Secker, head of Morgan Stanley’s European equity strategy team.
Last week (12 Sep), the ECB obliged, hiking rates by 75 basis points and several more rate rises are anticipated in the coming months, even if they are unlikely to be as large. ‘This won’t be the only rate hike and… there are several others coming,’ confirmed ECB Governing Council member Edward Scicluna, governor of the Central Bank of Naturally,Malta.this situation is heaping pressure on equity prices and after a brief rally in earlier in the summer, reality has reasserted itself over the past month with markets unable to escape a tricky macro backdrop characterised by central banks speeding up rate hikes into what is a deepening economic slowdown.
Data shows there has been a close relationship over the past 20 years between interest rates and equity valuations. When rates go up, price to earnings ratios on shares go down, so if we really are in the early stages of a rate rise cycle, look out for a further derating in shares.
Five commodity stocks account for 64% of European earnings upgrades in 2022 Contribution to year-to-date MSCI Europe index increase TotalShell Energies GlencoreEquinorBP 21% 16% 9%10% 8% Chart: Shares magazine • Source: Morgan Stanley, 5 September 2022
Radical times call for radical measures and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has a swoop on energy companies’ profits in her sights and rationing measures to stem potential energy shortages. The EU has announced plans to cut gas consumption by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023.
Eurozone inflation accelerated to 9.1% in August, up from 8.9% in July, and topping market
‘This suggests a high probability that PE ratios PRESSURE
‘Germany has been the worst performing major country in Europe since the invasion started, posting its worst six-month relative underperformance in 20 years,’ says the bank. ‘From a top-down perspective, this underperformance seems justified given the
rally in European equities – going some way to reversing the big losses seen this year, caused by the punishing impact of spiralling inflation and fears over recession.
early days, it is worth considering what might happen if the crisis became less severe and a ceasefire is declared. Investment bank Morgan Stanley says a deescalation of the conflict would lead to a material
Since early September, Ukraine has taken back swathes of land and continues to put more pressure on Russia. While that has raised spirits that Ukraine will not be defeated, it also increases the risk Russia will fight back, such as doubling down on efforts to destroy vital infrastructure including power and heating systems. Indeed, a major dam in Ukraine was last week hit by missile
Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia has changed the dynamic of the war and led some investment experts to speculate what might happen if we see a de-escalation of the crisis.
to consensus earnings estimates for the next 12 to 18 months and we are 16% below consensus by the end of 2023.’
‘Our models are flagging large downside risks
POTENTIAL MARKET IMPACT FROM UKRAINE CRISIS DE-ESCALATION DAX 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Chart:16,00014,00012,00010,000Shares magazine • Source: Refinitiv
have further to fall,’ said Morgan Stanley’s Secker. His team expect the European economy to slow over the next couple of quarters. This will increase the pressure on corporate profits, which have been reasonably resilient so far this year, thanks to strong commodity sector upgrades and a material boost from the weakness we’ve seen in the euro and sterling trade.
This may seed the idea that defensive stocks over cyclicals are a better place for investors to hold their cash. It is quite possible that we will see a widening preference for sectors like healthcare, insurance, telecoms and utilities over automotive, capital goods, construction and retail.
In this situation, share prices would most likely be driven by stocks trading on higher earnings multiples, rather than material upgrades to earnings forecasts, says Morgan Stanley. It suggests trading Germany’s DAX in the event of a crisis de-escalation, with the stock index likely to be reappraised by investors given it has already been beaten up so much.
Whilestrikes.stillvery
Her optimism is shared by Dale Nicholls, manager of Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS), who believes we are ‘likely to see less negative news in terms of additional regulation’.
President Xi Jinping’s zero-tolerance Covid policy and an overleveraged property sector are among the GDP downgrade drivers for China, where exports are providing less solace and the government is bringing tech companies under greater control.
One way to get exposure to this index is via Lyxor DAX UCITS ETF (DAXX), an exchange-traded fund designed to mirror the performance of the DAX, priced in sterling. It has a 0.15% annual charge.
Invesco’s global market strategist Kristina Hooper points out China’s latest Covid wave has led to greater stringency, yet so far the impact to economic activity ‘seems much smaller than what we saw in the first half of the year as policymakers try to balance economic considerations along with virus control’.
domestic economy’s heightened sensitivity to Russian gas flows plus the equity market’s relatively high weighting to cyclicals.’
While the risk of another downturn has risen, so have stimulus measures and Hooper anticipates more pro-growth policies could be announced as we get closer to the Party Congress in mid-October, ‘and we expect that could lead to a Chinese stock market rally’.
Nicholls says he is also seeing increased messaging from senior government officials who are recognising the slowdown in the economy and implementing policies that are more focused on growth. He adds: ‘It will be interesting to see the areas of the economy the Party will identify during the upcoming Congress. This is likely to translate into more fiscal and monetary easing, with additional focus on support to the property sector.’TheFidelity money manager believes we are likely to see a continued divergence when it comes to monetary and fiscal policy in China relative to the rest of the world, particularly the US, which he reckons is likely to be positive for markets during this second half of the year.
Also arguing Chinese equities are poised for a rebound is Franklin Templeton’s Michael Lai, who sees investor sentiment and valuations at ‘unsustainable lows’ and is positive on the relative case for the Chinese equity market’s prospects moving into the latter part of 2022.
CAN CHINA BOUNCE BACK?
Investment bank Nomura has trimmed its 2022 GDP forecast for the Middle Kingdom from 2.8% to 2.7%, while Ortec Finance says 62% of pension fund managers surveyed expect China to be in recession within 12 months.
A lot of investors have placed bets that the DAX has further to fall, so good news on the Ukraine crisis could catch the market by surprise and a ‘short squeeze’ could amplify gains. Those betting the index will fall in value might be forced to buy the index to close out their positions if the DAX starts racing upwards, hence the term ‘squeeze’.
Prospective investors must also weigh rising geopolitical tensions with Taiwan and the US, not helped by Nancy Pelosi’s flying visit to the island.
It is vital to understand that sentiment currently remains negative towards European equities and no-one knows when or if the Ukraine crisis will end, so buying the Lyxor ETF now is not a guaranteed way to make money.
Momentum Global Investment Management Limited (MGIM) is the Investment Manager of Momentum Multi-Asset Value Trust No. 4325961. (MAVT). There is no guarantee that MAVT will deliver income or long-term capital returns and there is a risk that investors may lose some or all of any capital invested. Before investing you should refer to the Key Information Document (KID) for details of the principal risks and information on the fees and expenses, which are available at momentum.co.uk. MGIM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (232357) with its registered address at The Rex Building, 62 Queen Street, London, EC4R 1EB (Company Registration No. 3733094). We apply a value lens to identify the most compelling investment opportunities across a highly diversified range of asset classes. The Trust is designed to appeal to investors who wish to combine a quarterly income with longterm capital growth. VALUEMULTI-ASSETMOMENTUMTRUSTPLCFindoutmoreatwww.momentum.co.uk/mavt Take a investmentapproachrefinedtoyourportfolio The refined value investement trust
Just a month before Ravi joined, the firm’s chief financial officer resigned after Devlin warned investors there would be little to no sales growth this year and he was aiming for the business to break even at the operating level.
However, ‘the weak balance sheet, question marks around the covenants in Q1, liquidity and going concern issues and how the group will drive liquidity in Q2 suggest the trading update on 17 October could be rather negative,’ he added.
claimed at the time the addressable market in the US, the UK and Australia was around $25 billion to $30 billion, most of which was in the US.
L
At its peak, Naked Wines was one of the mosthyped stocks in the market and not just among UKInterviewedinvestors. on CNBC last October, Glen Kacher, founder and chief investment officer of Light Street Capital, referred to the company as ‘the Net flix of wine’, sending the shares up more than 15% in a day.
How the ‘Netflix of wine’ lost the plot in under a year
Kacher, who bought a 9.9% stake in the business, called it ‘the kind of opportunity you only find once every two or three years, where you can mul tiply your capital many times over the next five to 10Theyears’.company’s chief executive Nick Devlin
FEATURE 22 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
Considering the stock traded close to 900p a couple of times last year thanks to the pandemicdriven surge in online consumption, this is a re markable fall from grace.
On the same day, non-executive director Pratham Ravi, who joined the firm on 25 August to represent 10% shareholder Punch Card Capital of the US (the second-biggest shareholder after Baillie Gifford with 13%), resigned after less than three weeks in the post.
Liberum analyst Wayne Brown suggested last week’s unexpected update ‘could imply a smaller business in the future and reining in ambitions, which makes sense considering how poor key per formance indicators are’.
It also revealed it was ‘in active discussions to address our credit facility to reflect any revised plan’ but said it expected to have headroom to its second quarter covenant tests.
The fact former CEO Rowan Gormley has been called back for a few months’ advisory work would imply something strange is going on, suggesting that investors should brace themselves for some bad news. [IC]
What went wrong with Naked Wines for the shares to lose 90%?
Naked Wines (p) 2020 2021 20228006004002000Chart: Shares magazine • Source: FE Analytics
Fast-forward to last week and the firm released an unscheduled trading update saying it was ‘reviewing potential operational and finan cial plans for the next 18 months’ in order to improve its profitability, rein in costs and im prove its payback.
So, what has happened to the business and why has its direct-to-consumer model fallen so far out of favour with investors?
ast week saw shares in Naked Wines (WINE:AIM) slump 42% in a day to hit a 21-year intraday low of 84p.
What will be left of UK tech stocks after swathe of takeovers?
W
opportunities.
If we include agreed buyouts for Avast (AVST), Micro Focus (MCRO) and EMIS (EMIS:AIM), the UK stock market stands to lose companies worth £21 billion that generated revenues of £5.35 billion in the last reported full year.
Investors interested in the exciting growth offered by many tech stocks should view takeovers as bad news. A bid may be pitched above the market price but losing these stocks from the
ith engineering software company Aveva (AVV) poised to exit the stock market thanks to a takeover, it will mean losing the UK’s largest ‘tech’ firm by market value, at £9.15 billion.
Larger companies are exiting the London market in numbers, but there remains a rich seam of opportunity among smaller firms
Identity data intelligence platform provider GB Group (GBG:AIM) is the latest UK technology company to catch the eye of potential buyers after Chicago-based private equity firm GTCR made a takeover approach.
Technology manufacturers Halma 7,468 IMI 2,909 Spectris 2,906 Renishaw 2,543 Rotork 2,051 Spirent 1,613 Oxford Instruments 1,160 DiscoverIE 697 Morgan MaterialsAdvanced 694 XP Power 373 Market value £m Table: Shares magazine • Source: Sharepad, 16 September 2022
FEATURE 22 September 2022 | SHARES | 23
market creation
Aveva has been majority owned by French industrial group Schneider Electric (SU:EPA) since 2017 and this shareholder now wants the whole
Software and microchip companies are among the first places that investors associate with the tech space. Yet technology companies come in many shapes and sizes. The UK has a well-developed electronics sector, for example, with eight FTSE 350 constituents from the London Stock Exchange sector.
Private equity firm Thoma Bravo may have walked away from a deal to buy cybersecurity firm Darktrace (DARK), but others might be lurking in the background, preparing alternative offers.
TECH IN ALL SHAPES AND SIZES
effectively robs investors of longer-term wealth
That’sbusiness.aslightly different bid situation to most of the other tech takeovers we’ve seen this year and last. Investors have lost favour with growth stocks and the pound has fallen to a 37-year low versus the dollar, which has seen many high-quality UK technology businesses fall in value and left them exposed to overseas takeovers. And deals are coming thick and fast.
According to Sharepad data, there are a dozen FTSE 350 software stocks including Belfast-based Kainos (KNOS), the digital transformation specialist. In seven years, this Belfast University spin-out has seen its market value surge from £161 million to £1.7 billion, a 956% gain.
Oxford Instruments (OXIG) has hundreds of patents that protect its edge in scientific and healthcare kit and components. X-ray machines in hospitals and food safety checks, for example, would be virtually impossible without the £1.2 billion company’s tools.
TECH CONSUMERS OR CREATORS
Moonpig (MOON) used lots of tech buzzwords when it listed in February 2021. It called itself a ‘platform’, talked about its ‘proprietary technology and apps’ and said it leaned heavily on ‘data
Moonpig was a good example of how the term ‘tech’ became a badge that many companies tried to wear in recent years. It became cooler to be about the internet of things than just things, but the recasting is seductive in more tangible ways. It implies faster growth, easy and cheap scalability, and better investment returns. That opens the door to pools of investment capital that might not otherwise be available, and can push stock valuations to levels.
Tech consumers, or creators Ascential Media/events TechnologyAuction Online auction platform Auto Trader Motor advertising/sales Baltic Classifieds Online advertising Bytes Technology Software reseller/services Computacenter Software reseller/services Darktrace Cybersecurity Kainos Digital transformation Moneysupermarket Online finance portal NCC Cybersecurity Sage Enterprise software Softcat Software reseller/services Table: Shares magazine • Source: Sharepad, 16 September 2022
To many, these are manufacturing businesses, yet it is hard to argue that they are not tech companies too. For example, Renishaw (RSW) is a £2.55 billion world leader in metrology and spectroscopy. It owns hundreds if not thousands of industrial patents that make its equipment unique and best in class.
Internet and mobile communications would be years behind were it not for the advanced testing solutions provided by £1.6 billion Spirent (SPT). It works with governments, healthcare, defence, transport, retail companies and many of the world’s largest telecoms suppliers.
Soundsscience’.allvery
tech-like yet what does it do? It prints bespoke greetings cards, the sort of thing a tech-savvy 12-year-old could do with Photoshop and a decent printer.
extraordinary
True tech investors would ignore Auto Trader (AUTO), Ascential (ASCL), Baltic Classifieds (BCG) and Moneysupermarket (MONY), as they are not software companies at all, simply businesses that use technology.
FEATURE 24 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
SEPARATING THE UNIVERSE
Kape 619.0 214.7 GB 299.5 171.9
Big Technologies 47.3 26.7
‘At Blue Whale, we make a distinction between the users of tech and the creators of tech,’ says Stephen Yiu, lead manager of the £825 million LF Blue Whale Growth Fund (BD6PG78)
As we mentioned earlier, GB and EMIS have enough about them to attract takeover interest, so there is clear interest in the wider markets for the potential of AIM-quoted businesses.
Where investors may have been happy to pay 30 to 40 times earnings in the past for consistent 15% to 20% yearly growth, they’re currently prepared to pay much However,less.Covid has demonstrated that
By Steven Frazer News Editor
Strix 129.1 43.8
IDOX 69.9 45.1
CommuincationsGamma 482.5 228.5
Boku 62.3 63.4
Seeing Machines 54.8 20.8
EMIS 176.9 152.0
Revenues£m ProfitsGross£m
Table: Shares magazine • Source: Sharepad, Yahoo Finance, 16 September 2022
DotDigital 62.6 28.6
IQE 165.0 17.6
‘We see lower barriers to entry for users of tech which decelerates growth as competition catch up. Creators of tech are better able to maintain their competitive edge and therefore enjoy sustainable growth for longer,’ Yiu believes.
TinyBuild 64.5 34.0
technology is a vital function in our daily lives, almost on a par with light and heat. Businesses across every sector, from fashion to finance and food to fabrication today rely on technology to run. This means that tech is unlikely to stay passé with investors forever.
An even greater number of ‘tech creators’, as Yiu calls it, exist on AIM. Many investors still see the junior market as a collection of flaky firms without a penny of profit to their name, but that’s not the case. In the AIM 100 index 18 tech companies have market valuations above £200 million, with meaningful revenues and, in most cases, gross profits.
Technology as a theme has fallen out of fashion this year, as has growth in more general terms, as high inflation and raising interest rates have impacted valuations.
Thorpe FW 117.9 55.4
CentralNic 621.6 118.5
DISCLAIMER: The author own units in Blue Whale Growth.
Devolver Digital 135.2 39.2
TechnologiesLearning 554.5 26.7
Tracsis 698.0 34.8
That’s not to dismiss these companies. They each have their own investment pros and cons, but they aren’t really tech.
Companies such transport infrastructure and analytics software designer Tracsis (TRCS:AIM) should be relatively familiar names to Shares readers – it was one of our best-performing stock picks for 2021, up 57%.
FEATURE 22 September 2022 | SHARES | 25
FD Technologies 294.6 106.1 TechnologyAccesso 132.0 96.4
AIM 100 index tech stocks
To operate effectively, AVs require high-quality roads, clear signage, and expansive data networks.8 In the chart below, we evaluate the “readiness” of different countries based on the conditions created by policymakers and existing infrastructure:
LEVEL 1 (DRIVER ASSISTANCE) The driver controls most driving functions, but under certain conditions, the vehicle may be able to adjust cruise control speed or stay in a lane.
GLOBAL X ETFs RESEARCH
LEVEL 5 (FULL AUTOMATION) The car is fully autonomous and requires no human input to operate in all driving conditions.
New Investments Ready to Propel Autonomous Vehicle Technology Forward
• Countries in the top right corner scored highest on AV infrastructure and favourable regulation, led by the Netherlands and Singapore.
AVs use the data that they collect to continually improve the AV network’s driving skills and reduce the instances of software disengagement events and accidents. General Motors’ (GM) Cruise model currently averages more than 39,000 miles driven before triggering a disengagement event, which is a situation in which the autonomous system stops working, and requires the operator to manually take control of the vehicle to correct a potentially unsafe activity.2 At current learning rates, GM’s AV technology could approach an average of 300,000 miles between disengagements by 2030 – a length exceeding the expected lifespan of a typical vehicle.3
While we are seeing progressive gains in AV safety, there is considerable room for improvement in the years ahead, as highlighted by the chart above. To collect the data needed to demonstrate better-than-human performance, AVs would need to drive approximately 275 million miles.4 Reaching that distance would take 100 AVs driving 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, at an average speed of 25 miles per hour for more than 10 years.5, 6 However, testing times can be reduced by combining real-world tests with “model-in-the-loop simulations.” These simulations consist of running vehicles through algorithms that cover every possible scenario to ensure that the AV system can make the right decisions.7
• The United Sates scored well on road quality, and could be primed for improvement after the passage of landmark federal infrastructure packages in 2021 and again in 2022.9, 10
An AV’s ability to operate without human input depends on its level of sophistication, and can be thought of as a progression across five levels1:
• Surprisingly, Israel scored poorly on AV infrastructure and regulation, despite its leading-edge tech sector.
CRUISE SELF-DRIVEN MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT
Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology has improved dramatically in recent years, supported by large investments from auto manufacturers and tech companies. Given how important expanding consumer acceptance is to AV adoption, safety is a reliable gauge of progress.
Source: State of California Department of Motor Vehicles. (2022, January 3). 2021 autonomous vehicle disengagement reports [Data set].; Global X Wrights Law on Autonomous Driving Stoppage Forecast based on data from State of California Department of Motor Vehicles, 2022.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030ENotes:200,000100,00050,0000150,000250,000300,000E=Estimated 39,001 284,749
AV TECH ADVANCING, BUT MORE WORK REMAINS
INFRASTRUCTURE & POLICYMAKERS PLAY A KEY ROLE
LEVEL 4 (HIGH AUTOMATION) The car can control all driving aspects and operate without intervention, but only under certain conditions.
LEVEL 3 (CONDITIONAL AUTOMATION) The car can monitor the driving environment and accelerate, turn, or brake, but still expects human intervention when alerted.
LEVEL 2 (PARTIAL AUTOMATION) The car can accelerate/decelerate on its own and perform basic steering functions. Driver is still responsible for directing navigation like exiting a highway, changing lanes, or turning on a new street.
TM EUROPE@GLOBALXETFS.COM @GLOBALXETFSEUGLOBALXETFS.EU
AV technology in the market today ranges between Levels 1 and 3, incorporating degrees of basic automation. Though fully autonomous vehicles haven’t hit the roads yet, the technology has made significant strides. AVs are collecting and processing billions of data points from an array of cameras with sensors and radar systems, which are both more sophisticated and affordable than earlier iterations. Also, advanced driver-assistance systems, including adaptive cruise control and self-parking, are now increasingly available in even low to mid-range models.
5 Ibid.
3 Ibid,
With automakers, tech companies, and suppliers across the AV supply chain investing in and advancing self-driving technology, we expect AVs will continue to become safer and more road-ready. Mass adoption will take time, but for investors interested in exposure, early commercial use cases such as robotaxis are already emerging.
The value of an investment in ETFs may go down as well as up and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance Trading in ETFs may not be suitable for all types of investors as they carry a high degree of risk. You may lose all of your initial investment. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Changes in exchange rates may also cause your investment to go up or down in value. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. If in any doubt, please seek independent financial advice. Investors should refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuer.
DRVE: The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles UCITS ETF seeks to invest in companies involved in the development of autonomous vehicle technology, electric vehicles (“EVs”), and EV components and materials. This includes companies involved in the development of autonomous vehicle software and hardware, as well as companies that produce EVs, EV components such as lithium batteries, and critical EV materials such as lithium and cobalt.
2 Global X Analysis of data derived from: State of California Department of Motor Vehicles. (2022, January 3). 2021 autonomous vehicle disengagement reports [Data set].
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Another challenge for the AV industry’s growth trajectory is consumer adoption as technology is actively evolving. Generally, there’s a high correlation between AV regulation and consumer acceptance, as is the case in the United States and Finland, for example. On the other hand, Japan and Austria have fairly low consumer acceptance scores relative to their performance in other areas, such as regulation, infrastructure, and innovation.
6 Kalra, N., & Paddock, S. M. (2016). Driving to safety: How many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability? Rand Corporation.
TM EUROPE@GLOBALXETFS.COM @GLOBALXETFSEUGLOBALXETFS.EU GLOBAL X ETFs RESEARCH New Investments Ready to Propel AV Tech
8 Canis, B. (2021, April 23). Issues in autonomous vehicle testing and deployment (CRS Report No. R45985).
THE OUTLOOK IS BRIGHT
This document is not intended to be, or does not constitute, investment research as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority
Capital at risk. The value of an investment in ETFs may go down as well as up Prospectuses and Key Investor Information Documents (KIIDs) for this ETFs is available in English at https://globalxetfs.eu/funds/drve/
4 Heineke, K., Kampshoff, P., Mkrtchyan, A., & Shao, E. (2017, May 22). Self-driving car technology: When will the robots hit the road? McKinsey & Company.
10 Kasperowicz, L., & Walker, D. (2021, October 21). The state of federal highways and bridges [2019 study]. AutoInsurance.org.
AV COUNTRY READINESS INDEX SCORES FOR POLICY AND LEGISLATION VS INFRASTRUCTURE SCORES Global
7 Heineke, K., Kampshoff, P., Mkrtchyan, A., & Shao, E. (2017, May 22). Self-driving car technology: When will the robots hit the road? McKinsey & Company.
Source:
1 Car and Driver, “Path to Autonomy: Self-Driving Cars Levels 0 to 5 Explained,” Oct 2017.
INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT AVs AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF OTHER DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ON YOUR EXPLOREPORTFOLIO?THE
X Analysis; Richard Threlfall, Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index, KPMG International, 2020 698754321(adj.)ScoresIndexInfrastructure Policy and Legislation Index Scores (adj.) MEDIAN 4.5 6.2MEDIANBrazil India Mexico Russia IsraelChinaBelgium Spain Hungary CzechRep.Chile SouthJapanAustraliaKorea Finland Canada DenmarkNorwaySwedenAustriaUAE The SingaporeNetherlands Germany NewUKZealand Italy U S TaiwanFrance
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AVs have the potential to revolutionise public transportation by reducing traffic congestion, the need for parking, and overall travel costs for consumers and companies alike. In our view, companies that have the technology and economies of scale in place will likely be well-positioned as AV technology proliferates, having secured market share and future revenue streams.
9 Schwab, K., & Zahidi, S. (2020). The global competitiveness report special edition 2020: How countries are performing on the road to recovery. World Economic Forum.
The ‘Rule of 20’ is back and it tells us a lot about current markets
MOULD AJ Bell Investment Director
HIGH FIDELITY
he old saying that buying higher-risk investments guarantees higher returns is one of investing’s biggest fallacies. If buying higher-risk assets ensured higher returns all the time, then they would not be high-risk, would they, because of the certain premium returns?
The origins of the ‘Rule of 20’ are shrouded in mystery, but the legendary US fund manager
Peter Lynch is thought to have been an active proponent when he was managing Fidelity’s
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics for inflation data, Refinitiv data
Alas, valuing a single company or an entire stock market is more of an art than a science and there is no ‘right’ answer but one yardstick seems to be coming back into fashion after a lengthy period out in the Thiscold.isthe so-called ‘Rule of 20’ and it is getting a new airing because it makes inflation one of its key considerations when it comes to establishing whether a single stock or benchmark stock index is cheap, expensive or fairly valued.
It uses the rate of inflation to help establish whether a stock or index is cheap, expensive or fairly valued
The best way to get the best risk-adjusted return from a security is to pay a low valuation for it, because that hopefully manages the downside risk and leaves potential for upside. Investors do not get paid for taking risk in a willy-nilly fashion. They get paid by seeking out value, as part of their riskmanagement process.
RUSS
T
28 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics, Refinitiv data
Is the latest surge in inflation a threat to equities in the US ….
… and the UK?
For example, if a stock or index was trading on 11 times earnings and inflation was 2%, then the theory would be that there could be some value to be had. Conversely, a market or company that was trading on 18 times earnings when inflation was 8% was seen as overvalued.
Nor can the ‘Rule of 20’ be seen as a clinical market timing tool. It suggested that US equities were overvalued from late 1997 but it took investors two (frenzied) years to get the message and the rule has been warning of danger since early
Magellan fund with such distinction from 1977 to Lynch,1990.
RUSS MOULD AJ Bell Investment Director
INFLATIONARY PRESSURE
In the UK, the prevailing rate of inflation is 9.9%. That implies the FTSE 100 should trade on 10.1 times forward earnings. For 2022, the FTSE 100’s £2 trillion market cap and 2022 consensus earnings forecasts for a net profit of £192 billion put the index on just 11.3 times forward earnings.
However,2020.
The reliability of, and volatility in, earnings forecasts again explains why this is more of an art than a science. If earnings boom, then US and UK equities may be cheaper than thought. A deep recession could mean that earnings collapse.
For 2023, analysts’ aggregate net profit estimate for the FTSE 100 stand at £200 billion, to put the UK’s benchmark index pretty much at fair value – again unless earnings estimates rise, or inflation falls. Investors must decide for themselves whether either scenario is likely and therefore whether UK equities represent good value or not.
also well-known for his assertion that the acronym IPO stood for ‘It’s Probably Overpriced’, argued that a fair multiple, or price, for a stock was 20 minus the rate of inflation.
NUMBER CRUNCH
Source: Standard & Poor's earnings forecasts, US Bureau of Labor Statistics for inflation data, Refinitiv data for S&P 500 index
the methodology does at least permit the investor to factor inflation into their thinking. It will also help them to understand why rampant inflation had such a devastating impact upon share price performance in the 1970s, when equities were viciously derated, and why disinflation proved such a powerful driver of stock market gains in the disinflationary 1980s, 1990s and 2010s.
The current rate of inflation in the US is 8.3%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Applying the Rule of 20 means a fair price to earnings multiple for the US equity market is 11.7Oh,times.dear.
Rule of 20 suggests US equities are looking overvalued
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 29
Investors could then debate whether it was best to use historic or forward (forecast) earnings, especially given the notorious unreliability of analysts’ forecasts, at least for cyclical and economically-sensitive industries.
The S&P 500 index stands, at the time of writing, at 3,901 and Standard & Poor’s analysis is looking for earnings per share of $210 for 2022. That implies a PE of 18.5 times, to suggest the US equity market is way, way overvalued – by as much as 35% to 40%, even assuming that $210 earnings forecast is anyThegood.situation looks a little less black if 2023 forecasts are used. S&P expects $240 in earnings next year, to put the S&P index on 16.3 times forward earnings. That is still too high by some 30%, unless earnings forecasts start to rattle higher very quickly, or inflation starts to tumble. The bad news is earnings forecasts are leaking lower in the US right now, not moving higher.
to 31.12.2019 the benchmark was 30% UK, 25% North America, 20% Asia Pacific, 20% Europe (ex UK), 5% Emerging Markets. theDiscoverpower of Collective Wisdom. AssetNetSharePerformance*DiscretepriceValue** Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2020 Q2 2021 Q2 2021 Q2 2022 10.9% 0.6% -11.6% 34.7% -12.6% 8.7% 2.8% -8.9% 37.4% -11.7% Benchmark# 8.5% 6.1% 2.3% 24.5% -2.6%
We live in an uncertain world. For investors this can mean new levels of volatility. But at Witan we have consistently grown our dividend for 47 years. Our multi-manager approach offers a combination of collective wisdom, variety and expertise to our shareholders.
#
Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Witan Investment trust is an equity investment. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of currency and market fluctuation and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
UK IMI Index). From
figures value debt at fair
composite of 85% Global (MSCI All Country World Index) and 15% UK
**
*Source: Morningstar/Witan. Total return includes the national investment of dividends. The Net Asset Value value. Witan’s benchmark is a (MSCI 01.01.2017
Discover the Witan approach to global equity investment. witan.com
Open-ended property funds usually give shareholders the option to automatically reinvest their dividends by offering accumulation units.
First Sentier Global Property Securities B GBP Acc in GB 1.9%
L&G UK Property I Acc in GB 2.3%
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 31
Fund / ETF Yield
How to ensure your dividends from property funds are reinvested
L&G Global Real Estate Dividend Index I Acc in GB 2.8%
or investors who want to compound the high yields available on some property funds and trusts by reinvesting their dividends, there are a few differences between the two asset classes which they need to consider before starting out.
A selection of property-related funds and ETFs with accumulation versions
FP Foresight Sustainable Real Estate Securities A Acc GBP in GB 3.8%
CT Property Growth & Income I Acc in GB 3.2%
SJP Property L Acc in GB 3.0%
REITs (real estate investment trusts) on the other hand are required by law to pay out 90% or more of their tax-exempt earnings as well as 100% of any property income distributions received from other REITs rather than reinvest them, making the
SPW Multi-Manager Global Real Estate Securities B Acc GBP in GB 2.3%
Fidelity Global Property W Acc in GB 1.4%
There are pros and cons to compounding interest via funds and trusts
Schroder Global Cities Real Estate Z Acc in GB 1.0% (%)
Table: Shares magazine • Source: FE Analytics, 15 September 2022
Abrdn Global Real Estate Ret Acc GBP in GB 2.3%
Abrdn UK Real Estate Platform 1 Acc GBP in GB 2.9%
iShares Global Property Securities Equity Index (UK) D Acc in GB 2.1%
F
Premier Miton Pan European Property Share C Acc GBP TR in GB 3.0%
and more recently during the coronavirus crisis will remember only too well.
However, there are other pros and cons to each model, not least liquidity, costs and tax considerations, so Shares has prepared a handy guide.
When we refer to funds in this article, we are talking about open-ended investment vehicles whose assets can rise and fall depending on capital flows as opposed to closed-end funds such as investment trusts where capital is considered ‘permanent’.
During the coronavirus crisis, even funds with monthly or quarterly redemptions aimed at institutional investors had to close their doors due to lack of liquidity.
FUNDS AND ETFS
ETFs or exchange-traded funds tend to be more liquid than open-ended funds and typically have lower fees, but those that invest in fixed assets like
investor do the leg work.
In both instances, dealing in funds run by big insurance firms like Aviva (AV.) and Legal & General (LGEN) aimed at the retail market had to be suspended to stop investors pulling their money out because these funds couldn’t quickly liquidate any of their assets to meet daily redemption requests.
Examples of real estate investment trusts Regional REIT 9.4% Custodian REIT 5.5% UK Commercial Property REIT 5.2% Supermarket Income REIT 5.0% LXI REIT 4.3% Trust Yield Table: Shares magazine • Source: FE Fundinfo, Association of Investment Companies. Data as of 15 Sept 2022
This makes a big difference when looking at property as an asset class, as investors who were exposed to the sector during the financial crisis
32 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
While real estate investment trusts must pay out the vast majority of their profits as dividends, you can reinvest that money as long as your custodian or platform allows it.
property are less liquid than those which invest in stocks or bonds.
However,distributed.unless the units are held in a tax wrapper such as an ISA or a SIPP (self-invested personal pension), the reinvested dividends are considered to be a ‘notional distribution’ according to HMRC and are subject to the level of same income tax as the income units.
Dividends from REITs are known as a PID or ‘property income distribution’ and are normally paid after the trust has deducted withholding tax at the basic rate of income tax (currently 20%) which it pays to HMRC on behalf of shareholders.
Most platforms offer the option to reinvest dividends, although there is typically a small fee for doing so.
Trusts can also offer non-PID dividends from taxed income on activities other than lending, and they can issue ‘scrip’ dividends or ‘bonus’ shares which allows the company to keep hold of its cash and shareholders to increase their stake without any additional cost.
With those caveats in mind, investors who want to compound their dividends from property funds can buy what are known as accumulation units as opposed to income units. These can be found with both open-ended funds and some ETFs.
Scrip dividends are treated like any other kind of investment income so for tax purposes, unless the trust is in a tax wrapper, you need to make a note of the ‘cash equivalent’ which you would have received if you hadn’t been given new shares.
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 33
REINVESTING VIA REITS
As the name suggests, dividends are accumulated and reinvested in the fund rather than being
By Ian Conway Companies Editor
DISCLAIMER: AJ Bell referenced in this article is the owner and publisher of Shares magazine. The author (Ian Conway) and editor (Daniel Coatsworth) own shares in AJ Bell.
Also, unless the units are held in a tax wrapper such as an ISA or SIPP, when you come to sell them you will pay capital gains tax on any increase in value which exceeds your annual allowance, which is £12,300 for the current tax year.
For example, AJ Bell charges £1.50 per deal, so if your regular dividend is £100, for example, then the cost of reinvestment is small. If your dividend is only £5, however, you must question if you want to spend 30% of your dividend money on fees.
The same holds for ETFs which pay dividends, regardless of whether you physically receive income, or it is reinvested in the fund.
As a result, once reinvested dividends exceed your tax-free dividend income allowance of £2,000 you will have to start paying income tax.
Therefore, holders of accumulation units should keep a record of all their ‘notional distributions’ so that when they come to sell, they can work out how much of the sale proceeds are capital gains and are liable for tax.
Capital gains tax is payable on the value of the accumulation units when they’re sold, minus the original investment and any income accumulated.
Anyone who thinks growth investing consists of simply loading up on a few mega-cap tech giants will be shocked by some of the companies in Monks’ portfolio. A Swedish oat milk producer? An American specialist in surgically implanted contact lenses? A femalefriendly dating app? These businesses don’t fit the digits-and-data growth stereotype, but they too hold big profit potential, according to Monk’s manager Spencer Adair.
The key, he says, is recognising that a few big digital platforms no longer hold a monopoly on hypergrowth. The range of double-digit growth companies has broadened, and Adair has cast his net wider to capture as many of them as possible.
Investments with exposure to overseas securities can be affected by changing stock market conditions and currency exchange rates.
conditions can change rapidly, therefore the views expressed should not be taken as statements of fact nor should reliance be placed on them when making investment decisions.
“What we’re trying to achieve is a portfolio of the best global growth ideas from every corner of the world,” he says. “We want to identify them early, hold them for a long time and let compounding work its magic.”
CASTING THE NET WIDER
Growth stocks are becoming more diverse, meaning stock-pickers need to embrace the unfamiliar, says Spencer Adair, manager of The Monks Investment Trust
Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is wholly owned by Baillie Gifford & Co. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are based at: Calton Square, 1 Greenside Row, Edinburgh EH1 3AN.
The investment trusts managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited are listed on the London Stock Exchange and are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
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tech giants to disrupt traditional media and retailing. The other was the potential for surging consumption in emerging markets to propel favoured brands to newTheheights.problem is that these trends are maturing. They’re unlikely to repeat the eye-popping results of their earlier years. To find new sources of growth, Monks has veered away from internet titans towards “earlier-stage, less certain, much more disparate, much less correlated growth drivers”.
Adair’s strategy for Monks will be tested in the years and decades to come. In the meantime, any manager whose portfolio spans both oat milk and space rockets can speak with authority on how variety brings opportunity, and with it, more chances of success.
Among the more than 60 stocks that Monks classifies as disruptors are STAAR Surgical, which seeks to replace laser eye surgery with implantable contact lenses, and Denali Therapeutics, which is working on Alzheimer’s drugs. Online education pioneer Chegg, and plant-based milk producer Oatly and Elon Musk’s SpaceX aerospace venture also appear, as does Bumble.com, a dating app.
Some of the views expressed are not necessarily those of Baillie Gifford. Investment markets and
The views expressed in this article should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. The article contains information and opinion on investments that does not constitute independent investment research, and is therefore not subject to the protections afforded to independent research.
Some are no surprise – the shift to electric cars, for instance. Others include attempts to combat dementia, improve education and speed the shift to a more plant-based diet.
Please remember that the value of an investment can fall and you may not get back the amount invested.
Monks has broadened its view of what drives expansion. Like many growth portfolios, its holdings used to reflect two megatrends. One was the power of
Brunner is now on its third manager in two years
What should I do when my fund manager departs?
CHANGE AT THE TOP
O
While the surprise departure of a well-regarded fund manager is a red flag, there are many different reasons why successful stock pickers elect to leave their investment management firm and fund.
The news will have certainly set the nerves of investors in Abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust (AUSC) and Abrdn UK Smaller Companies (B7FBH94) jangling, given that Nimmo has been the architect behind their success.
Often, they simply retire after a long and successful stint managing a fund or investment trust. In other instances, they are given the boot by their asset management firm, or the independent board in the case of an investment trust, following a period of poor performance. Or they might be poached by a competitor or resign to set up their own fund management boutique.
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 35 Sudden departures are a red flag, but there are other considerations before you press the ‘sell’ button
When a fund manager who has forged a particularly strong track record exits stage left, it is tempting to immediately sell your fund units or
investment trust shares. However, it is important not to panic and to take your time and assess the situation. As the old aphorism states, ‘act in haste, repent at leisure’.
There has been a fair bit of fund manager turnover this year. For example, Sam Vecht has been appointed as lead portfolio manager of BlackRock Latin American (BRLA) and will be supported by Christoph Brinkmann following the news Ed Kuczma is stepping down as manager.
Shares in global investment trust Brunner (BUT) languish at a 14.7% discount to NAV as investors fret over the threat of a world recession as well as lead manager Matthew Tillett’s unexpected decision to step down in July and resign from asset manager Allianz.
n 5 September, asset manager Abrdn (ABDN) announced that veteran and very successful fund manager Harry Nimmo will retire from the firm and the industry at the end of 2022 after the best part of four decades with the company.
However, if you feel the fund approach will change, it may be worth considering selling your units or shares. And if you plan to follow the fund manager to their new employer, if they’re changing jobs and running another fund, make sure it will be
Many asset management firms like to promote analysts to fund managers as the next part of their career development. Yet while they will be familiar with the investment philosophy of the firm, managing money for investors requires a different skill set to pure equity analysis.
You should also weigh up whether the new fund manager’s style fits snugly with the vehicle’s existing investment strategy or not. If it doesn’t, you might see changes in the investment approach in the months and years ahead, which may result in the fund deviating from your objectives or sitting uncomfortably with the rest of your portfolio, which means it might be better to sell up and move on.
If the portfolio in question will continue to be managed in the same way, it may be suitable to stay with the fund.
If the fund manager relied on a large and wellresourced team of co-managers and analysts, their departure might not have a major impact on the overall strategy. Conversely, if they were running the fund on their own – which is what you often get with so-called ‘star managers’ – then the departure is a more serious threat.
WHAT IF I STICK WITH THE FUND?
In this situation, you’ll need to evaluate the new fund manager, be it an internal or external hire. Ask yourself, has the investment management firm drafted in a seasoned manager with a strong reputation in the industry and experience with a similar strategy, or has the firm decided to give the opportunity to a young manager themselves?
Martin Currie Japan Equity in GB
(%) 2005 2010 2015 2020Chart:6004002000 Shares magazine • Source: FE Analytics
In the funds universe, the impending retirement of long-serving stock picker Hideo Shiozumi presents investors in the capital-growth-focused Martin Currie Japan Equity (B8JYLC7) with the dilemma of staying put or selling out. His successor has big shoes to fill since Shiozumi boasts 45 years of experience in Japanese equities and has presided over a distinctive investment approach since the 1990s.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO IN THIS SITUATION?
The first thing to do when a successful manager leaves is to think carefully about how the fund was managed. Did they manage the fund on their own or was it managed via a team approach?
36 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
Other recent changes include Hamish Baillie stepping down as co-manager of capital preservation trust Ruffer (RICA), as well as the departure of the portfolio managers on investment trust Ecofin US Renewables Infrastructure (RNEP).
managed in the same way.
For instance, if an established income or value manager is appointed to run a growth fund, this could be problematic as the approaches can be very different.
He was only appointed as lead manager of the trust in May 2020. Christian Schneider, who has previously worked in tandem with Tillett, has taken over as Brunner’s interim lead manager for a minimum of six months until a permanent lead manager is appointed.
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 37
‘Accordingly, we would not expect to see radical changes in approach given that she is well-integrated into the management team and its philosophy, however it will be interesting to see how she performs given potential sectoral headwinds. Abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust has been one of the weaker performers yearto-date, reflecting its growth-focused approach.’
‘The discount has been widening over the past 12 months and, so far, the news has not had much of an impact on that. We are waiting to see the results of the tender offer (to be announced at the end of September) to gauge investors’ appetite for remaining in the trust following the management change.’
a smooth handover and a continuation of management style.’
‘In those circumstances, their departure will inevitably affect the rating,’ he explains. ‘A good recent example might be Independent Investment Trust (IIT), where, in the face of manager Max Ward’s intended retirement, the board opted to merge the trust into Monks (MNKS), which operates with a similarish style, rather than find a replacement manager.’
Numis Securities says Nimmo (pictured) is among one of the longest serving managers in the sector, taking over as lead manager in 2003. It says performance during his tenure has been ‘exceptional’, with Abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust producing NAV total returns of 930% (13.1% per year) compared with 315% (7.8% per year) for the Numis Smaller Companies (including AIM but excluding investment companies) index.
James Carthew, head of investment companies at research group QuotedData, says there are some funds that appear to be inextricably linked with an individual manager.
‘Given his tenure it is not a surprise to see him retiring and we believe the transition appears well-managed. Harry stepped back from his role as global head of smaller companies in 2020 to focus solely on portfolio management, while Abby Glennie, who will become sole lead manager, has been part of the team since 2016 and co-manager since 2020,’ notes the broker.
IMPACTING THE RATING
(%) 2005 2010 2015 20201,0005000Chart: Shares magazine • Source: FE Analytics
Rights & Issues Investment Trust
The QuotedData expert stresses that each situation will be different. ‘Often, as in the case of Harry Nimmo, the retirement of a manager will have been anticipated by the board and the management company well in advance and a co-manager will have been working alongside the outgoing manager for some time, to ensure
By James Crux Funds and Investment Trusts Editor
Another example is Rights & Issues (RIII), for years synonymous with Simon Knott, who announced his retirement in June. ‘In this case, the board opted to pass the management of the trust over to Dan Nickols at Jupiter, offering those investors that wanted it an exit via a 10% tender offer,’ says Carthew. ‘It has also been buying back stock – about 1.8% of the trust since the decision was announced.
NIMMO’S SUCCESS
SHARPEN YOUR INVESTING SKILLS WITH A SUBSCRIPTION TO SHARES HELPS YOU TO: • Learn how the markets work • Discover our best investment ideas • Monitor stocks with our customisable watchlists • Enjoy our guides to sectors and themes • Get the inside track on company strategies • Find out how fund managers make money Digital magazine Online toolkit Investment ideas
While I appreciate it might be frustrating to have to take regulated advice before moving your pension, the requirement is in place for a reason. Guaranteed annuity rates are often extremely valuable and, although there are circumstances where a transfer can be in someone’s best interests, giving up these guarantees is a decision that shouldn’t be taken lightly.
If you’re struggling to find an adviser, this Moneyhelper directory is a good place to start.
As you have found, it is not just DB pensions which come with an advice requirement for members wanting to transfer out.
It’s important to understand the rules if you’re thinking about moving your retirement savings pot
If you have a funded DB pension (where the scheme in which you belong holds assets to pay income to members) you can request a ‘transfer value’ and have the option of moving this to a DC scheme. If your fund is worth £30,000 or more, you will need to take regulated financial advice
I have an old pension policy with a ‘guaranteed annuity rate’ attached, which I’m told is quite valuable. I want to transfer it to a new provider so I can access the money flexibly, but I’ve been told I can’t unless I speak to – and pay for – a financial adviser. How can this possibly be the case? It’s my money.
From age 55, savers with these pensions can take an income to suit their needs through drawdown, access ad-hoc lump sums direct from their pot or use their fund to buy an annuity. You can also mix and match these options to suit your needs. The age at which you can first access your pension in this way is due to rise to 57 in 2028.
DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION ON RETIREMENT ISSUES?
I want to transfer my pension. Why do I have to pay for financial advice?
Tom Selby, AJ Bell Head of Retirement Policy, says:
before transferring. If you are a member of an ‘unfunded’ public sector pension scheme, you are not able to transfer out.
22 September 2022 | SHARES | 39
Anonymous
Please note, we only provide information and we do not provide financial advice. If you’re unsure please consult a suitably qualified financial adviser. We cannot comment on individual investment portfolios.
Reforms first introduced in April 2015 gave people with DC (defined contribution) pensions freedom and choice over how they access their retirement pot.
However, not all pensions can be accessed flexibly. If you have a DB (defined benefit) pension, your retirement income is paid by your employer based on the number of years you have been in the scheme and your earnings. Because a DB pension gives you a right to an income rather than a pot of money, it cannot be accessed directly in the same way as a DC pension.
Send an email to asktom@sharesmagazine.co.uk with the words ‘Retirement question’ in the subject line. We’ll do our best to respond in a future edition of Shares
Older-style pension plans sometimes come with a guaranteed annuity rate attached. This means your retirement income is guaranteed to be a certain percentage of the fund. You could often get considerably more income than buying an annuity on the open market. Because this percentage is guaranteed, the £30,000 advice requirement applies.
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Before the Bank of England rate rise last December, the top paying easy-access account offered 0.65% interest, but now the top account is paying around 2%. Competition in the fixed rate savings account market is even fiercer, according to Moneyfacts, with the average one-year bond now paying 2.29% which is the highest rate in a decade.
ash savers are celebrating as a rates war has broken out in the savings market, meaning they are getting a much better return on their money than they were a year ago.
C
HOW DOES THIS WORK IN PRACTICE?
Let’s look at interest rates first. When the base rate was 0.1%, if your savings were earning that amount
While this is good news for savers, there is a potential tax hit waiting in the wings. In 2016 the government introduced a new tax break
PERSONAL FINANCE 22 September 2022 | SHARES | 41
There’s an easy way to avoid the taxman taking a bite out of your returns
Higher interest rates are good for savers but watch out for tax
for savings income, which meant that basicrate taxpayers could earn £1,000 in savings income before they had to pay tax on it, while higher-rate taxpayers had a £500 allowance. Additional-rate taxpayers had no allowance. These allowances have remained the same since the tax break was introduced.
YOU CAN NOW GET MORE THAN 2%
This personal savings allowance meant cash ISA use dropped off a cliff – there was no need for a tax-efficient account if you weren’t going to be paying tax on those savings anyway. But since then two things have changed: firstly, rates have risen so people’s savings are generating more interest and secondly, more people are being pushed into the next income tax break, cutting their tax-free savings allowance.
The Bank of England has raised the base rate from 0.1% in December 2021 to 1.75% in August and is expected to raise rates by either another 50 or 75 basis points at its next meeting today (22WhileSeptember).theserate rises haven’t been welcomed by anyone with a mortgage or other debt, they’ve given a real boost to anyone with cash savings. Various smaller and challenger banks have successively raised the interest rates they offer on their accounts in order to draw in new business.
BEWARE THE FIXED-RATE SAVINGS ACCOUNT
Competition is fierce in the fixed-rate savings market, as banks offer higher rates in return for people locking up their money for longer. But before you’re drawn into the great deals on offer, you need to think carefully.
If you lock in a rate now, you’ll miss out on any interest rate rises that happen during that period for which you fix. This is always something you need to consider, but it’s particularly important now because we’re expecting more interest rate rises in the coming months.
PERSONAL FINANCE 42 | SHARES | 22 September 2022
At the top easy-access rate of 2% a higher-rate taxpayer would need to have £25,000 in savings before they hit their new, lower £500 tax-free savings limit.
of interest a basic-rate taxpayer would need to have £1 million in savings to hit that limit. Clearly that is going to be a tiny proportion of theHowever,population.with the top easy-access savings account now paying around 2% that same basicrate taxpayer would only need to have £50,000 in savings to hit the limit.
On top of this, the government hasn’t increased the earnings level at which different rates of income tax are due, and more people are being pushed into the higher-rate tax band (or into the additional-rate band thanks to pay rises). This means their savings allowance is cut to £500, or to nothing if they hit the additional-rate band.
The current expectation from markets is that rates will rise to around 3.75% by the end of this year and potentially hit a peak of 4.5% in lateNo-one2023.
Put money into an ISA. Individuals can put up to £20,000 across these types of accounts each year.
By Laura Suter AJ Bell Head of Personal Finance
IS THERE A SOLUTION TO THIS TAX HIT?
The fixed-rate savings market is paying even more, which means you’d need to have even less in savings to hit that limit. For example, the top two-year bond pays 3.55%, which means a basicrate taxpayer would only need around £28,000 in savings to hit the limit.
has a crystal ball to work out exactly what will happen and when the best time to fix is, so it’s a personal decision on whether you’d rather have the certainty of the rate locked in now, or park your money in an easy-access account before fixing at a later date. Other people might decide to opt for a shorter fix, such as for one year, so they can hopefully get a higher rate in a year’s time.
However, cash ISAs often pay lower interest rates, so savers will need to do their sums to work out whether it’s worth picking a higher paying nonISA account and paying tax on their savings interest, or putting it in an ISA and accepting a lower rate.
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ANGLE
Main Market Abrdn 35 Ascential 24 Auto Trader 24 Avast 23 Aveva 23 Aviva 32 Baltic Classifieds 24 BP 18 Darktrace 23 Frasers 8 Kainos 24 Legal & General 32 Marks & Spencer 7 Micro Focus 23 Moneysupermarket 24 Moonpig 24 Ocado 7 Oxford Instruments 24 Renishaw 24 Royal Mail 7 Shell 18 AIM EMIS 23 GB Group 23 Naked Wines 22 Tracsis 25 Overseas shares Alphabet 10 Amazon 10 Apple 10 ASML 18 Autostore 7 Deutsche Post 7 FedEx 7 Kion 7 Microsoft 10 Netflix 8, 11 Schneider Electric 23 Tesla 10 UPS 7 Funds Abrdn UK CompaniesSmallerFund 35 LF Blue Whale Growth Fund 25 Martin Currie Japan Equity 36 Investment Trusts Abrdn GrowthSmallerUKCompaniesTrust 35 BlackRock Latin American 35 Brunner Investment Trust 35 Ecofin US InfrastructureRenewables 36 Fidelity China Special Situations 20 InvestmentIndependentTrust 37 Monks Investment Trust 37 Rights & Issues 37 Ruffer 36 SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust 12 ETFs First Trust ComputingCloudETF 10 Lyxor DAX UCITS ETF 20
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30 September: Pennon.
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Trading updates
Full-year results: 23 September: European Opportunities Trust. 26 September: Finsbury Food. 27 September: Transense Technologies. 28 September: Avingtrans, Blancco Technology. 29 September: Allergy Therapeutics, CAP-XX, McBride, Physiomics. Half-year results: 26 September: Concurrent Technologies, CPP, Devolver Digital, Immotion, Likewise, LungLife AI, Microlise, Next Fifteeen Communications, SpaceandPeople, Xpediator. 27 September: AG Barr, Animalcare, Boku, Billington, Diaceutics, Digitalbox, ECSC, Ergomed, Fireangel Safety Technology, GENinCode, Instem, Lifesafe, NAHL, The Mission Group, Mortgage Advice Bureau, Serica Energy, Tinybuild, Yu Group.
