AJ Bell Youinvest Shares Magazine 03 October 2019 by Shares Magazine

VOL 21 / ISSUE 39 / 03 OCTOBER 2019 / £4.49

STRAP IN FOR THE

CAR SECTOR RECOVERY There’s still fuel in the tank for retailers and financiers

ARE TOBACCO STOCKS NOW UNINVESTABLE? OUR ANNUAL STOCK PICKS ARE UP BY 16% SO FAR THIS YEAR THE KEY REASONS WHY BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY IS SO SUCCESSFUL

EDITOR’S VIEW

Planning for bad times can make you stronger Having back-up cash and not taking excessive risks could be a wise move

nvesting involves some big decisions that can only be made if you think about the good and bad points. You need to think about how much money you could lose as well as make. And when it comes to saving in general you must also think about squirreling away adequate money to cope with difficult times in life as well as funding treats in the good times. Having this rounded view is a crucial part of the overall financial planning picture. It can help to avoid being over-confident and take excessive risks. Equally it can act as a reality check to stop you spending everything each time you build up a decent savings pot. Banks are regularly put through stress tests to see if they have enough capital to withstand an economic shock. Any that fail a stress test have to build up more capital reserves, essentially bolster their savings so they don’t get into trouble in bad times. This is a good approach to take with your own finances. If something went wrong, such as losing your job, do you have enough money to pay the bills and other outgoings until you find a new job? In the same situation, do you have savings that can help sustain debt repayments? Think of it as sensible financial planning rather than being overtly negative and panicking about the worst case scenario. The Financial Conduct Authority, a regulator, has been giving these scenarios a lot of thought and says it is important to be ready for an economic downturn. Under the latest stress test scenario from the Bank of England, UK unemployment would hit 9.2% (versus the current 3.8% rate), house prices would fall by a third and the stock market would crash by 41%. The same test also assumes UK GDP falls by 4.7% and world GDP declines by 2.6%. Such a negative environment could leave many people unable to keep up debt repayments. They

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

and others would also lose access to further credit. People may struggle to keep up their mortgage payments; failure to do so would see an increase in repossessions. Individuals who were hoping to downsize their home to help fund retirement would be in a pickle. And people losing their jobs would not only be without a salary, they would also lose out on workplace pension contributions, thereby potentially hurting their future income in retirement. Those already in retirement would see asset values fall and potentially see severe damage to their value of their portfolios at a time when they are reliant on the markets for income. Clearly many people would struggle in such a negative environment. These statistics are quite alarming; the FCA calls them ‘severe and unlikely’ but not impossible. They should be a wake-up call for the need to be more financially prepared for the worst case scenario as well as not being reckless with investment decisions. By Daniel Coatsworth Editor

Watched pots do boil Conventional wisdom has been around for ages, but people forget to challenge what it means. Or why we continue to repeat it. At Orbis, weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve always questioned common thinking to avoid sleepwalking into common results. Watched pots do eventually boil, and theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve served our clients well. Ask your financial adviser for details or visit Orbis.com

As with all investing, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Investments (U.K.) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Contents EDITOR’S 02 VIEW BIG 06 NEWS GREAT 10 IDEAS 16 FEATURE 19 UNDER THE BONNET MAIN 24 FEATURE

Planning for bad times can make you stronger

CLICK ON PAGE NUMBERS TO JUMP TO THE START OF THE RELEVANT SECTION

Are tobacco stocks now uninvestable? / Prudential demerger / New fund liquidity rules / Pearson, Sainsbury’s and WPP New: IWG / Alliance Pharma Updates: TI Fluid Systems Our annual stock picks are up by 16% so far this year The key reasons why Berkshire Hathaway is so successul

Strap in for the car sector recovery

30 AEQUITAS

Can Japan tackle global trade concerns?

33 EDUCATION MONEY 37 MATTERS

What does a good and bad portfolio look like?

41 ASK TOM

‘How would an election affect my pension?’

43 FUNDS

Mark Slater: the fund manager who keeps on delivering

46 INVESTMENT TRUSTS

Have global investment trusts been the ticket to strong returns?

49 INDEX

Shares, funds and investment trusts in this issue

The demise of the bank branch / How much are you taking from your pension?

DISCLAIMER IMPORTANT Shares publishes information and ideas which are of interest to investors. It does not provide advice in relation to investments or any other financial matters. Comments published in Shares must not be relied upon by readers when they make their investment decisions. Investors who require advice should consult a properly qualified independent adviser. Shares, its staff and AJ Bell Media Limited do not, under any circumstances, accept liability for losses suffered by readers as a result of their investment decisions. Members of staff of Shares may hold shares in companies mentioned in the magazine. This could create a conflict of interests. Where such a conflict exists it will be disclosed. Shares adheres to a strict code of conduct for reporters, as set out below. 1. In keeping with the existing practice, reporters who intend to write about any

VIEWING SHARES AS A PDF?

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

securities, derivatives or positions with spread betting organisations that they have an interest in should first clear their writing with the editor. If the editor agrees that the reporter can write about the interest, it should be disclosed to Index of companies and funds in this issue readers at the end of the story. Holdings by third parties including families, trusts, self-select pension funds, self select ISAs and PEPs and nominee accounts are included in such interests. 2. Reporters will inform the editor on any occasion that they transact shares, derivatives or spread betting positions. This will overcome situations when the interests they are considering might conflict with reports by other writers in the magazine. This notification should be confirmed by e-mail. 3. Reporters are required to hold a full personal interest register. The whereabouts of this register should be revealed to the editor. 4. A reporter should not have made a transaction of shares, derivatives or spread betting positions for seven working days before the publication of an article that mentions such interest. Reporters who have an interest in a company they have written about should not transact the shares within seven working days after the on-sale date of the magazine.

SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST

SCOTTISH MORTGAGE ENTERED THE FTSE 100 INDEX IN MARCH 2017.

WANTED. DREAMERS, VISIONARIES AND REVOLUTIONARIES. Visionary entrepreneurs offer opportunities for great wealth creation. The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust actively seeks them out. Our portfolio consists of around 80 of what we believe are the most exciting companies in the world today. Our vision is long term and we invest with no limits on geographical or sector exposure. Our track record as long-term, supportive shareholders makes us attractive to a new breed of capital-light businesses. And our committed approach means we can enjoy a better quality of dialogue with management teams at transformational organisations. Over the last five years the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust has delivered a total return of 163.8% compared to 112.7% for the sector*. And Scottish Mortgage is low-cost with an ongoing charges figure of just 0.37%**. Standardised past performance to 30 June* 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Scottish Mortgage

25.8%

4.9%

48.8%

33.4%

0.7%

AIC Global Sector Average

15.4%

5.6%

39.1%

20.6%

4.6%

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Please remember that changing stock market conditions and currency exchange rates will affect the value of the investment in the fund and any income from it. Investors may not get back the amount invested. For a farsighted approach call 0800 917 2112 or visit us at www.scottishmortgageit.com A Key Information Document is available by contacting us.

Long-term investment partners

*Source: Morningstar, share price, total return as at 30.06.19. **Ongoing charges as at 31.03.19 calculated in accordance with AIC recommendations. Excludes transaction costs, costs of borrowing money to invest and the ongoing costs of any underlying investment funds within the Trustâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s portfolio. Details of these costs can be found in the Key Information Document. Your call may be recorded for training or monitoring purposes. Issued and approved by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited, whose registered address is at Calton Square, 1 Greenside Row, Edinburgh, EH1 3AN, United Kingdom. Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is the authorised Alternative Investment Fund Manager and Company Secretary of the Company. Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The investment trusts managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited are listed UK companies and are not authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

BIG NEWS

Are tobacco stocks now uninvestable? Vaping woes are putting the industry under real pressure

he defensive attractions of the tobacco sector, traditionally owned for its earnings resilience and rising dividends, appear to be wafting away amid increasing political and regulatory concerns over vaping. The promise of tighter rules on the vaping sector is bad news for the tobacco giants which have bet big on vaping and other smokeless alternatives replacing shrinking cigarette profit pools. Marlboro-maker Philip Morris International and Altria have ended talks over their mooted $187bn merger amid rising regulatory risk around Juul Labs, the vaping upstart in which Altria owns a 35% stake. Juul has replaced co-founder Kevin Burns as CEO with K.C. Crosthwaite, a Philip Morris veteran and most recently Altria’s chief strategy and growth officer, having been hit by sales bans triggered by unexplained respiratory illness among vapers and US scrutiny amidst a teenage e-cigarettes epidemic.

“The Trump administration plans to remove all flavoured e-cigarettes from store shelves” The replacement of Burns with Crosthwaite signals Altria’s growing influence over Juul after its $12.8bn investment last December, with the e-cigarettes firm also suspending all broadcast, print and digital advertising in the US amid vaping hysteria across the pond. The Trump administration plans to remove all flavoured e-cigarettes from store shelves due to rising popularity among the youth demographic, while South Korea and India have become the latest countries to ban or warn about the sale of e-cigarettes. Here, Imperial Brands’ (IMB) shares cratered after the Davidoff, Gauloises Blondes and blu maker coughed up a profit warning (26 Sep). Imperial Brands cut its year-to-September 2019 6

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UP IN SMOKE. IS THE TOBACCO SECTOR’S BET ON VAPING IN TROUBLE? sales growth guidance from 2.5% to ‘around 2%’ and is now guiding to flat annual earnings per share, blaming US vaping hysteria for lower than expected growth in less harmful next-generation products, as well as a competitive Australian market, for the earnings alert. Specifically, Imperial’s overall next generation product business is expected to grow by around 50% this year, below management expectations with the US market slowdown sapping demand for its myblu vape brand. A number of wholesalers and retailers are not ordering or not allowing the promotion of vaping products. Uncertainty over the future of vaping also weighs on the valuation of British American Tobacco (BATS), which recently outlined plans (12 Sep) to simplify its business and boost growth in new categories such as vapour, tobacco heating products and oral tobacco. Recent developments may give pause for thought for investors attracted by the forward price-toearnings ratios of 6.0 and 8.3 on offer at Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco respectively. These are cheap ratings but they could get even cheaper judging by the perfect storm engulfing the sector.

BIG NEWS NEWS BIG

Prudential demerger could see M&G join the FTSE 100 We explain why the companies are splitting, when it will happen and the potential dividend attractions

n March 2018 insurance company Prudential (PRU) announced that it would demerge M&G, its UK and European savings and investment business, and list it as a separate company on the London market. Eighteen months on, assuming that investors agree the proposal at the annual general meeting (AGM) on 15 October, shareholders in Prudential will receive one M&G share for every Pru share they own. M&G shares are expected to start trading on 21 October. In essence, M&G will have gone full circle as it used to be quoted on the stock exchange before it was bought by Prudential for £1.9bn in 1999. Twenty years later, analysts are pencilling in an £8bn valuation for the savings and investment firm, which would be big enough for M&G to join the FTSE 100 index. M&G will focus on savings and retirement needs for people in the UK and Europe. With more than £250bn in assets, M&G is seen as a mature business with a steady base of recurring revenues which it can use to pay out a stream of dividends. It serves around 5.5m retail savings and investment customers and provides investment solutions to more than 800 institutional clients. The remaining part of Prudential will concentrate on Asia where it will target an under-protected but growing workforce and

in the US it will provide financial protection products. It is also growing in Africa which is one of the most under-insured markets in the world. Increasing per-capita wealth is driving the take-up of insurance policies and savings products in emerging markets as people look to protect themselves and their families in the absence of state ‘safety nets’. Post-split Pru investors will have the choice of a lower-growth, possibly higher-income European asset management play or highergrowth emerging market-tilted insurance company, or retain shares in both companies. The M&G prospectus says the demerged company intends to pay about 11.92p per share dividend in May 2020 relating to its 2019 financial year. It also expects to pay a special oneoff dividend of about 3.85p at the same time, in recognition that the company was operating for most of its 2019 financial year without incurring certain costs, such as debt interest costs, that it would expect to bear in the future. Shore Capital analyst Paul De’Ath says those payments equate to a 7.3% prospective yield based on his 245p per share fair value calculation of the business. Investment bank Morgan Stanley suggests M&G’s dividend yield could be nearer to 6% based on a more generous valuation assumption of 310p per share. 03 October 2019 | SHARES |

BIG NEWS

What new fund liquidity rules mean for investors Be prepared for a world where fund suspensions are more common

he Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is taking measures to address concerns about liquidity in the funds market. New rules are being considered which could see more frequent fund suspensions if there is uncertainty about the value of assets. There may also be different redemption conditions for institutional investors to avoid retail investors being hit by a large investor choosing to withdraw a large sum of money in a single day. This follows a situation with Woodford Equity Income (BLRZQ62) where Kent County Council’s withdrawal was a key reason why dealing in that fund was subsequently suspended. Three years ago several property funds suspended dealing following a rush of investors trying to take their money out amid concerns over Brexit hurting the UK property market. From 30 September 2020 property funds which fall into a new category of ‘funds investing in inherently illiquid assets’ will have to be clearer in explaining liquidity risks to prospective investors. They will be subject to enhanced oversight and will have to come up with detailed plans to deal with liquidity issues as they crop up. So-called non-UCITS retail schemes which invest in illiquid assets will also have to suspend dealing if an independent valuation determines there is

material uncertainty over more than 20% of a fund’s portfolio. AJ Bell head of active portfolios Ryan Hughes says: ‘We welcome the FCA’s decision to look further into these solutions, among others, and while sensible suggestions we’d urge the regulator to move more rapidly to make changes, as these are real problems that investors are facing today.’ Hughes says the new rules enforcing a suspension if there is uncertainty over the valuation of 20% of a fund’s assets might see multiasset funds suspend dealing if the property funds in which they invest are gated. In turn, this could direct such funds to invest in property investment trusts or reduce exposure to illiquid assets below 20%, potentially undermining their diversification appeal to investors. Ian Sayers, chief executive of the Association of Investment Companies, says retail investors should be able to invest in funds where they know from the outset how they will be managed and what their redemption rights are. ‘These should be reliable and should not change in response to foreseeable market conditions,’ he comments. ‘Unfortunately, the FCA’s proposals fail to achieve this. Disclosure of the many possible complex measures that might be applied is both inadequate and unfair.’

The FCA says its measures should: • Help investors understand better any restrictions on access to their investments and the circumstances in which these restrictions will be placed on the funds. • Reduce the likelihood of a run, which could substantially reduce the value of investments for those left in the fund and possibly destabilise the market more widely.

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BIG NEWS NEWS BIG

Pearson, Sainsbury’s, WPP and the week’s other big news We look at the UK market winners and losers from the past week

cademic publishing firm Pearson (PSN) earned a dunce’s cap from the market on 26 September. Its shares fell more than 10% to 740p as it warned earnings would be at the lower end of expectations thanks to weak sales to US universities. Full year operating profit is expected to come in towards the bottom of the guided range of £590m to £640m. The news suggests the structural problems caused by students transitioning away from expensive textbooks to finding materials online have not going away.

SUPERMARKET SWEEP The departure of key Sainsbury’s (SBRY) executive John Rogers to serve as chief financial officer at advertising firm WPP (WPP) was seen as a blow for the former and a boon for the latter (1 Oct). Rogers led the digital transformation at Sainsbury’s-owned Argos and previously worked as finance chief at the supermarket. He was seen as a

future CEO candidate for the company. He will now join WPP’s CEO Mark Read at the beginning of 2020, marking a full reset of the media group’s management since the departure of Martin Sorrell. The team may face pressure to ramp up the company’s recovery after a year of consolidation in 2019. Also on 1 October, US plumbing products firm Ferguson (FERG) delivered a better than expected set of full year numbers thanks to keeping tight control on its purse strings. In the words of broker Davy: ‘Ferguson’s results were slightly ahead of our estimates as management’s execution on cost delivered a strong margin performance. Trading remains subdued with organic sales up just 2.1% in the fourth quarter, not helped by continued weakness in Canada.’ There was no update on recently-announced plans for a demerger of its modest UK operations and a potential move of its listing to the US or dual listing.

FTSE 350 MOVERS OVER THE PAST WEEK STOCK

BEST PERFORMERS SHARE PRICE RISE

REASON

PureTech Health

9.6%

Affiliate company reveals strong funding round

9.4%

Continuing bullish sentiment in the wake of first half results

Rank

7.5%

Rebound in the gambling sector

STOCK

WORST PERFORMERS SHARE PRICE FALL

REASON

Pearson

-14.0%

Weak university sales lead to disappointing earnings guidance

Imperial Brands

-10.8%

Profit warning driven by US vaping issues

Fresnillo

-9.3%

Fall in precious metal prices Source: Shares, SharePad. Date to 1 Oct 2019

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

IWG could be the next big market cash machine 85 75

ALLIANCE PHARMA

The serviced office provider is moving to a franchise model that could greatly 55 2019 2018 enhance shareholder returns

erviced office group IWG (IWG) is undergoing a significant transformation that could result in enhanced returns to shareholders in the coming years. IWG is moving to an assetlight strategy where it becomes a master franchise owner, similar to the model used by Domino’s Pizza (DOM) and McDonald’s. IWG is selling its operating businesses to partners in exchange for cash and future licensing and services revenue. Franchising ultimately provides a cost-effective way for IWG to take advantage of the structural growth of the flexible, coworking market. A £320m deal was struck earlier this year in Japan where Tokyo-listed TKP will operate 130 flexible working centres using IWG’s brands Regus, Spaces and OpenOffice. The pair has since struck similar deal for IWG’s Taiwanese operations for £22.7m. Chief executive Mark Dixon said at IWG’s half year results in August that discussions were being held with other prospective partners, with an update expected to be given to the market later this year. Three private equity firms tried to buy IWG last year but talks ended on a disagreement about valuation. Fund manager Mark

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XXXX BUY IWG BUY

(xxx) (IWG)xxxp 409.3p Stoploss: loss:xxp 287p Stop Market value: xxx Market cap: £3.65bn

Slater who holds the stock in Slater Growth Fund (B7T0G90) says this bid interest made Dixon ‘more engaged’. He adds: ‘IWG’s chief executive realised the business could be run a lot better. Having a franchise model could see huge amounts of capital returned to shareholders.’ Some investors may be put off by IWG’s valuation. It is trading on 31.4 times forecast earnings for the next 12 months and five times book value. Numis analyst Steve Woolf believes the current valuation does not fully reflect the potential for incremental growth, lower risk and higher cash generation as the franchise model becomes more established. ‘While the next catalyst could

450

IWG 350 250 150

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lie with the announcement of a new franchise buy-in, our sumof-the-parts indicate fair value of 515p per share,’ he adds. IWG has delivered 11% compound annual growth in dividends since 2010. ‘If IWG adopted a fully franchised model, we believe there would be significant scope for additional capital returns to investors,’ says Woolf. ‘If a sale price of around two times market value-to-sales was achieved, this would represent a cash inflow of c.£5.3bn, increasing to £6.6bn for a multiple of 2.5-times. ‘Including the proceeds from Japan, and adjusting for revised net debt and repayment of customer deposits, this would leave IWG with a net cash position of c.£4.5bn to £6.6bn. This equates to 490p to 640p per share, and provides significant scope for share buybacks during the franchising process.’ By Daniel Coatsworth Editor

CAPITAL AT RISK

Diversify for good and growing income opportunities. The Diverse Income Trust plc. Aiming to deliver growing income across a broad range of UK companies.

The Company’s investment objective is to provide income and capital growth over the long term. It aims to achieve this by investing in the shares of companies listed or traded on the UK stock market. Since launch, The Diverse Income Trust plc has increased its income payable year-on-year by 8.8%. INCOME SINCE LAUNCH (PENCE PER SHARE)

4.0 0.23

3.5

0.4

3.0

Pence

• The value of shares and the income from them are not guaranteed and can go down as well as up.

• Past distributions of dividends are not a guide to future distributions.

Find out more

mitongroup.com/diverseincome

4.5

0.16 1.1

2.8

2.02

2.1

2.25

1.5

Ordinary Dividends Special / Additional Dividends

0.5

2.5 2.0

RISKS

3.4

2.55

2.4

Dividends declared but not paid

The Diverse Income Trust plc powered by

1.0 0.5 0.0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

*The fourth interim dividend and the special dividend have not yet been paid but have been declared by the Trust and are subject to a shareholder vote at the Company’s AGM on 9 October 2019.

Ratings are not a recommendation.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Investors should read the Trust’s product documentation before investing including, the PRIIPs Key Information Document (KID), the latest Annual Report and Accounts and the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) Disclosure Document as they contain important information regarding the trust, including charges, tax and specific risk warnings and will form the basis of any investment. This financial promotion is issued by Miton, a trading name of Miton Trust Managers Limited. Miton Trust Managers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is registered in England No. 4569694 with its registered office at 6th Floor, Paternoster House, 65 St Paul’s Churchyard, London, EC4M 8AB. MFP19/373

Investors are underpricing Alliance Pharma’s growth potential The firm is highly cash generative and is achieving attractive levels of profit growth

harmaceutical specialist Alliance Pharma (APH:AIM) runs an asset-light business model, making it unique in the sector and very cash generative. Alliance Pharma owns or licenses over 90 pharmaceutical and healthcare products and sells them in more than 100 countries. Unusually the company outsources all the capital intensive activities such as manufacturing, storage and logistics. Management focuses on the activities they believe will deliver the greatest value, such as marketing and product sourcing. Expertise in medical regulation matters are kept in-house. Over the past 20 years the company has grown through selective promotion of what it calls ‘star brands’ as well as making 35 acquisitions. It has built a balanced portfolio of products with growth potential and stable cash-cow characteristics. Alliance Pharma is not exposed to research and development risk as all of its products are proven and well established. The company splits its business into international star brands and local brands. The star brands are predominately healthcare products with international reach offering significant growth.

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ALLIANCE PHARMA  BUY (APH:AIM) 71.6p Stop loss: 53.7p

85 75

ALLIANCE PHARMA

Market cap: £374m

The fastest growing brand is Kelo-Cote which was purchased in 2015 from Sinclair Pharma. This product is a patent-protected silicone gel treatment for keloid and hypertrophic scars, sold in more than 65 countries. The scars treatment market was valued at $4.8bn in 2017 and is expected to grow around 10% per year for the next six years. Since purchase the company has seen a three-fold increase in revenue, driven by marketing support, the launch of a global website and promoting best practice in scar management. For the first six months of 2019 Alliance Pharma reported like-for-like revenue growth of 21% for the star brands to £30.9m, representing 44% of total sales. Eye supplement product MacuShield was the standout performer growing revenue by 27% to £4.7m. The local brands portfolio includes established therapeutic niches with strong heritage, albeit without the potential to be marketed internationally.

2018

2019

Collectively they generate 450 significant profit and cash flows IWG because they do not require a lot 350 of promotional spending. This250dynamic undoubtedly contributed to the 40% increase in 150 2018 the firm’s first half free2019 cash flow of £14.5m, which allowed the company to reduce net debt by £11.7m to £74.1m. The company grew its total revenue by 29% which helped push earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) up 34%. Underlying earnings per share grew by 15% and the dividend increased by 10%. Leverage fell to 1.95 times debt-to-EBITDA. Given the company’s strong track record of revenue and profit growth, which have averaged 21% a year for the last five years, the share rating is too cheap, trading on only 13.4 times next years’ earnings. By Martin Gamble Senior Reporter

REDUCING RISK THROUGH EXPERTISE, DIVERSIFICATION AND A PROVEN INVESTMENT STRATEGY

iotechnology is a high-growth sector so it’s understandably alluring for many investors. Many, however, are put off by the perception that it is risky. Success in drug trials can lead to a company doubling its market cap overnight, but failure can lead to capitulation. The swings from fortune to failure can be brutal. So how can investors reap the benefits of the anticipated growth in the biotech market without unacceptably high risks? International Biotechnology Trust believe there are three key elements to minimising the risk investors face: diversification, manager expertise and a rigorous investment strategy. The Trust employs three diversification strategies. Diversification through ownership of a large basket of over 75 stocks, all carefully picked by its expert managers. Diversification through stock-selection all along the spectrum of the sector – some early stage unquoted stocks, some profitable mega-cap companies and some in all the stages in between. Finally, diversification across medical technologies, medical services and therapeutics. Within the latter, there is a further spread across treatment areas such as oncology, central nervous system, rare diseases and many more. The result is a level of diversification far greater than one could achieve through a biotechnology index tracker fund. But the expertise of the managers is also crucial. International Biotechnology Trust is managed by Dr Carl Harald Janson, a medical doctor turned research scientist, who has spent the last 30 years as both fund manager and industry expert. He leads a team of scientifically-trained experts, meaning they can interrogate companies and their scientific data, thereby avoiding as many of the sector’s pitfalls as possible. But even these expert managers don’t get it right all of the time. Those sharp capitulations when a drug fails can happen when a clinical trial is supported by even the best science. To avoid exposure to these events, the team carefully monitors the newsflow of portfolio companies in order to anticipate the likely timing of any clinical trial readouts or other stock moving events. In the run up to these

announcements, the inherently optimistic market usually drives the price up in anticipation of positive news. International Biotechnology Trust aims to lock in the anticipatory price rise but sell down in advance of the announcement. That way, in the event of positive news, they can buy the shares back in the aftermarket, often at a cheaper risk-weighted valuation. Crucially, in the event of a negative outcome, they are not left clutching a stack of worthless shares. The managers call this “binary event trading.” However, macroeconomic and political risks will still cause short-term volatility in a high-growth sector. While the managers can do little about Brexit or US rhetoric on China and drug pricing, biotech’s long-term outlook remains favourable, not least because many companies have sales in many different territories. And despite it being an unpleasant fact of life, our population will get old and sick regardless of historical growth. Thankfully, for all of us, the unstoppable force of scientific innovation is ensuring supply keeps pace with demand. There are still risks out there. For example, a trial can be unexpectedly halted in the event of lack of efficacy or the market can overreact to political noise about the sector. But the managers of International Biotechnology Trust have shown that their riskmitigation strategies have successfully enabled shareholders to gain exposure to a high-growth sector, through a vehicle which reduces the risk to investors while delivering higher returns than its index.

This financial promotion is issued and approved by SV Health Managers LLP (“SVHM”) and may not be suitable for all investors. Any investment decision should only be made based on the fund scheme documents and appropriate professional advice. The value of investments, and the income from them, may go down as well as up, and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance or forecasts contained in this document are not a reliable indicator or guide to future performance. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of overseas investments to rise or fall. Investors should acknowledge that investing in biotechnology carries some particular risks and investment in the Company should be regarded both as long term and as carrying a high level of financial risk. This promotion is only made available to recipients who may lawfully receive it in accordance with all applicable laws and regulations. It is not targeted at US investors. Every effort is taken to ensure the accuracy of the data used in this promotion but no warranties are given. Full details of the Company, including risk warnings, are published in the Annual Report and Key Information Document which are available on request and at www.ibtplc.com. SVHM is authorised and regulated by the FCA.

GREAT IDEAS UPDATES TI FLUID SYSTEMS (TIFS) 195.6P Loss to date: 5.5%

260

TI FLUID SYSTEMS

230 200

Original entry point:

170

Buy at 207p, 9 May 2019

2018

THE LONG-TERM drivers of increasing globalisation, tighter regulations and electrification remain in place for TI Fluid Systems (TIFS). Against that positive backdrop, slowing growth exhibited by China and fears of a global slowdown has weighed on the shares. Analysts have recently downgraded their revenue and profit projections by around 5% to 7%. TI Fluid Systems is able to mitigate softer markets due to its flexible cost base, where fixed costs only representing 15% of revenue. The company’s leading market positions in performance and safety critical products mean that it can grow faster than the underlying market and achieve higher operating margins and

2019

substantial free cash flow. The total addressable market will rise from €1.3bn in 2018 to between €13.6bn to €19.5bn in 2026 according to IHS Markit and the company’s estimates. Although this sounds dramatic, it will only take the market share of hybrid to 38% and electric to 11% of the total market. SHARES SAYS:  The company’s global footprint, with leading market positions, puts it on the front of the grid in the race to deliver a greener future. The shares remain too cheap and don’t reflect the quality of the business. According to broker Peel Hunt the shares offer a free cash flow yield of 11.1%. Keep buying.

sharesoc Investor seminars - come and Join Us! ShareSoc is a not-for-profit membership society created by investors for investors. Our aim is to help our members become better investors and to defend their interests.

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Base Resources (ASX & AIM: BSE)

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Anexo (ANX)

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Solid State (SOLI)

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ECSC Group (ECSC)

Scientific Digital Imaging plc (SDI)

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National Milk Records Plc (NMR)

•

PCF Group plc (PCF)

sharehoLder engageMent MeetIng LLoyds BankIng groUp, edInBUrgh 12 November 2019 •

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14 | SHARES | 05 September 2019 All you need do is complete the registration form for your chosen event on our website. Go to www.sharesoc.org for more about ShareSoc.

EMERGING MARKETS REQUIRE ESTABLISHED EXPERTISE

JPMorgan Emerging Markets Investment Trust plc Our established expertise in emerging markets allows us to leave no stone unturned in order to find optimal growth opportunities. This investment trust keeps investing in emerging markets simple. Our approach – be smart, be consistent, be patient and cut through the noise to find tomorrow’s sustainable emerging markets stars that target attractive long-term capital growth. Find out more at jpmorgan.co.uk/JMG

Morningstar Analyst Rating™ as at April 30, 2019.

Your capital may be at risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator for current and future performance. ©2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. LV-JPM52136 | 06/19 | 0903c02a825a13f6

Our annual stock picks are up by 16% so far this year Shares’ selection of stocks is beating the market by 61%

fter a roaring start to the year for our ‘fantastic stocks for 2019’ portfolio, it has been a more testing time in recent months. We’ve faced earnings setbacks, fall-out from other stocks, and the pressures of a weaker global economic outlook. Fortunately we are still streets ahead, having delivered 61% outperformance versus the broader stock market as measured by the FTSE All-Share. We’re up 16% versus 9.9% from the benchmark. With just under three months left to run before the end of our 12 month exercise, we are certainly not complacent as many of the negative pressures still hang over some of our selections. STAR PERFORMERS Shares in high street clothing giant Next (NXT) are up 51.2% year-to-date with the retailer coping with the structural

challenges facing the sector. Group sales increased by 3.7% to £2.06bn in the six months to 31 July and shareholders were treated to a 4.5% rise in the dividend to 57.5p. Its growth strategy includes offering third party products and making sure that online shopping is about choice rather than home delivery or price. Shares in legal services firm Keystone Law (KEYS:AIM) have bounced back after a small lull during the summer. Revenue and profit were both up 15% for the six months to 31 July as the Keystone platform attracted more high-calibre senior lawyers. As well as adding more feeearners, Keystone’s platform model allows it to cross-sell legal services to its clients thereby

Shares' portfolio + 16% FTSE All-Share + 9.9% 16

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

deepening its ties with them. The UK legal ‘mid-market’ is worth an estimated £9bn in annual revenue and Keystone believes the firm’s model is ‘absolutely scalable’ with a minimum of investment. STRONG GAINS Despite some up and down moments our positive call on media group Euromoney (ERM) is comfortably in the money, up by more than a quarter on our entry point. The shares have been driven higher by robust financial results and the removal of a significant share overhang as Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT) returned its 49% stake to shareholders. In the six months to 31 March, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation came in at £46.2m against a forecast £40m, driven by its pricing and data business. The company recently commenced a strategic review of its underperforming asset management-focused arm. SMITHSON BUYS INTO FEVERTREE Shares in carbonated drinksmaker FeverTree (FEVR:AIM) have had a quiet quarter after tumbling 30% during May and June due to concerns that summer trading would be weaker than hoped.

SHARES’ 2019 PORTFOLIO Company

Entry price (p)

Price now (p)

% gain / loss

4191.0

6336.0

51.2

Keystone Law

370.0

523.8

41.6

GB Group

422.5

544.0

28.8

Euromoney

1172.0

1478

26.1

Fevertree Drinks

2210.0

2405.7

8.9

Hollywood Bowl

219.5

236.2

7.6

On The Beach

362.0

382.5

5.7

Renishaw

3804.0

3690.0

-3.0

Rolls-Royce

801.8

776.8

-3.1

Coats

77.3

74.7

-3.3

AVERAGE FTSE All-Share

16.0 3686.0

4052.5

9.9 Source: SharePad. Data to 1 Oct 2019

When the company announced its results in July the shares dropped sharply as UK sales were up just 5% on last year. However, given last year’s unusually hot summer and the effect this had on sales, the shares soon recovered as investors turned their focus to the potential for sales to grow in the key US market. The US mixer market is many times the size of the UK and sales growth seems to be accelerating with the launch of new products and brand tie-ins. Interestingly, we note that popular investment trust Smithson (SSON) took a position in Fevertree in July. Its approach is to invest in high quality businesses with a view to holding them for the long-term. DEALING WITH HEADWINDS Shares in On the Beach are still sitting higher than our entry price despite two setbacks this calendar year. The stock took a big hit in August when it revealed that consumers were delaying their holiday

purchase due to Brexit uncertainty. Thomas Cook’s collapse is also causing a near-term increase to costs as it helps customers organise alternative travel arrangements. Analysts at investment bank Berenberg believe On The Beach has the opportunity to deliver as much as five years’ worth of growth in 12 months now that Thomas Cook has been removed from the holiday market. However, this is a mediumterm opportunity and On The Beach might first have to clear some short-term hurdles, particularly as it could be difficult to rebook customers previously booked to fly with Thomas Cook’s airline onto alternative flights if prices have shot up. These individuals may cancel bookings altogether and so On The Beach would lose out.

WAITING FOR NEWS Elsewhere, Hollywood Bowl (BOWL) hasn’t updated on trading since issuing half-year results on 23 May. However, it did say in August that Rochdale would be the third test site for its new golf concept called Puttstars. It is too early to tell how this brand could enhance earnings. The company has historically updated the market on trading every October so we may get some news very soon. New problems caused by a fault in its Trent 1000 engines have cast a cloud over RollsRoyce (RR.). This will frustrate Boeing’s hopes of getting its 787 planes, grounded by the glitch, flying again and it has done precious little for investor confidence. By Daniel Coatsworth Editor

DISCLAIMER: Editor Daniel Coatsworth owns shares in Smithson referenced in this article 03 October 2019 | SHARES |

THIS IS AN ADVERTORIAL

Looking at UK markets differently Alex Wright, Portfolio Manager of Fidelity Special Values PLC, explains the benefits of contrarian investing. In November 2019, Fidelity Special Values PLC celebrates its 25th birthday and, at that time, I will be only the third Portfolio Manager to have been responsible for the company. Since I took over the trust in 2012, I have continued to invest on behalf of the company’s shareholders using the same value-focused, contrarian approach used since it was established under Anthony Bolton back in 1994. As a contrarian, I’m drawn to unfashionable stocks that are out of favour and trade on cheap valuations. I’m looking for potential positive change that others haven’t seen yet. I also look to invest in companies where I understand the potential downside risk, to limit the possibility of future losses. Ideally, I want to invest in companies that are exceptionally cheap on relevant measures, or which have some kind of asset that should prevent their share prices falling below a certain level - this can be anything from inventory to intellectual property. From this, I then Iook for opportunities where I believe the market’s perception can shift due to changes in the company’s competitors or market, a new product line or an expansion into new business areas. I also impose a strict sell discipline on myself once the recovery has taken place. Finding these types of overlooked and underappreciated opportunities is not easy and requires extensive research. Central to the long-term success of our approach has been the insight and expertise of our large team of analysts. Fidelity’s philosophy is to base investment decisions on company fundamentals such as competitive position, management strength, growth opportunities, valuation and so on. Overarching trends in the economy play a supplementary rather than primary role in our investment decisions. Looking at markets today, ongoing political uncertainty has created a challenging environment for UK equities. A cautious approach is needed, but attractive valuation opportunities are out there. Against this backdrop, I am increasingly finding attractive opportunities among stocks with defensive characteristics and the ability to control their own fate and drive positive change irrespective of the prospects for the domestic economy. The UK market is a good source of defensive companies, both classically defensive and others with more hidden defensive qualities. Imperial Brands is an example of

the former. Valuations in tobacco companies have fallen significantly over recent years and I favour Imperial over competitor BAT due to its stronger balance sheet and its promising new vapour innovations which I believe are underappreciated by the market. Amongst the “hidden” defensives I have added to Pearson which continues its transformation from print to digital and is countercyclical; it performs well in a US economic downturn as education enrolment picks up. On the flip side, I have been reducing the trust’s exposure to economically-sensitive areas like banks over recent months. The significant move down in global bond yields will put major pressures on net interest margins and for most banks there are few avenues left to offset this pressure. At the company level, I recently moved to sell out of my holding in Lloyds. In line with our original thesis, the company was successful in cutting costs and driving efficiencies, but I now see limited upside at its current valuations. It has become a bellwether for the UK economy with its future performance tightly linked to the UK mortgage market and interest rate movements. By contrast, I continue to hold RBS as I see a more favourable risk-return profile - it is at an earlier stage of its recovery relative to Lloyds and still has room to go in its evolution towards becoming a high return bank with excess capital.

Important information The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you invested. Overseas investments are subject to currency fluctuations. The investment trust can gain additional exposure to the market, known as gearing, potentially increasing volatility. The trust invests more heavily than others in smaller companies, which can carry a higher risk because their share prices may be more volatile than those of larger companies. The shares in the investment trust are listed on the London Stock Exchange and their price is affected by supply and demand. This information does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis of any investment decision, nor should it be treated as a personal recommendation for any investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to an authorised financial adviser. Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities and is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. This article is issued by Financial Administration Services Limited, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Fidelity, Fidelity International, The Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. UKM1019/24872/CSO9306/0320.

UNDER THE BONNET

We explain what this company does

The key reasons why Berkshire Hathaway is so successful Everything you need to know about Warren Buffett’s investment vehicle

est known as the investment vehicle of legendary value investor Warren Buffett and his business partner Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway has also produced remarkable returns for outside investors since the pair took over running the firm more than 50 years ago. Berkshire says its total gain in market value from 1964 to 2018 is a staggering 2,472,627%, or an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5%. In comparison, the S&P 500 index of US companies ‘only’ grew by 15,019% over the same period including dividends. This works out as a 9.7% CAGR.

Although officially classed by Standard & Poor’s as an insurance company, only a quarter of Berkshire’s revenue came from insurance in the first half of 2019. A similar amount came from manufacturing, with the

BERKSHIRE HATHWAY’S REVENUE BY BUSINESS AREA IN FIRST HALF OF 2019 Sales by division Insurance, Corporate & Other Manufacturing Berkshire Hathaway Energy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Service & Retail McLane Company Total Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shares

H1 2019 ($bn) Proportion 32.76 31.25 9.64 11.58 14.44 24.61

26% 25% 8% 9% 12% 20%

124.276

100%

rest coming from the group’s significant holdings in energy, road and rail freight, retailing and services. Over the past five decades Berkshire has gradually morphed from a company whose assets were largely concentrated in stocks to one whose major value is now in the operating companies it owns. When viewed as a whole, Berkshire actually owns a large slice of the American economy and its infrastructure. However, rather than diving into the detail of each and every business Berkshire owns, which vary enormously in size and profitability, Buffett believes investors should look at them as five distinct groups each with a focus on their operating performance. OPERATING AND RETAINED EARNINGS The non-insurance businesses – usually 100% owned and never less than 80% owned – generated earnings of $16.8bn last year after costs, taxes, depreciation, amortisation and interest payments. By comparison, Berkshire’s portfolio of equities – which were worth c$173bn at the end of 2018 – paid it dividends of $3.8bn last year. More important than the 03 October 2019 | SHARES |

UNDER THE BONNET

We explain what this company does

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S SHARE OF DIVIDENDS AND RETAINED EARNINGS FOR TOP FIVE HOLDINGS AS OF DEC 2018 Company

Wells Fargo Apple Coca-Cola Bank of America American Express Totals

Ownership 9.8% 5.4% 9.4% 9.5% 17.9%

Dividends ($m) 809 745 624 551 237

2,966

Retained Earnings ($m) 1,263 2,502 -21 2,096 997

6,837

Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shares

dividends, in Buffett’s view, are the earnings which these companies retain each year. Dividends from Berkshire’s top five equity holdings amounted to just under $3bn last year whereas the firm’s economic share of their ‘retained earnings’ – money that is left after taxes, interest costs and dividends have been paid – was closer to $7bn. The reason for looking at retained earnings rather than dividends is that among the things which investee companies can do with their money is buy back shares, which increases the economic value of investors’ holdings without them having to do anything. As an example, Berkshire’s holding in American Express hasn’t changed in the last eight years in terms of number of shares, but thanks to buybacks by the company its ownership of the company has risen from 12.6% to 17.9%. Last year, Berkshire’s share of American Express’s retained earnings was just under $1bn compared with its purchase price eight years ago of $1.3bn. As 20

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

Buffett likes to say, when earnings increase and shares outstanding decrease, over time owners usually do well. A FINANCIAL FORTRESS The third group of assets are ones where Berkshire owns 50% or less of the shares but jointly manages the businesses. The four companies in this category are food producer Kraft Heinz, where Berkshire holds 26.7% of the shares; mortgage and financial services firm Berkadia, where it has a 50% stake; utility firm Electric Transmission Texas, where it also owns 50%; and truck-stop and service centre operator Pilot Flying J, where it owns 38.6% of the shares. Using operating earnings, Berkshire’s ‘split’ of these firms’ income last year was about $1.3bn. The fourth part of the business holds cash, Treasury bills and other fixed-maturity securities, which as of June 2019 amounted to $200bn or close to 40% of Berkshire’s current market value, making it ‘a financial fortress’ in

Buffett’s words. At least $20bn of that money is untouchable, ‘to guard against external calamities’, but the hope is that the bulk of it can be put into businesses that Berkshire will permanently own. The problem is that for now prices for good businesses with decent long-term prospects are ‘sky-high’. Therefore the more likely option is that some of that money will continue to trickle into stocks. That doesn’t mean that Buffett is making a market call. He says: ‘Charlie and I have no idea as to how stocks will behave next week or next year. Our thinking is focused on calculating whether a portion of an attractive business is worth more than its market price.’ INSURANCE FUNDS ARE A ‘FLOAT’ The fifth part of the business is the insurance companies which Berkshire owns and the considerable funds which they generate. Buffett refers to these funds as ‘float’, or a source of funding that he calls ‘cost-free, or even better

UNDER THE BONNET

We explain what this company does than that, over time’. Understanding such thinking is crucial to appreciating how Berkshire has achieved such stellar returns for more five decades. Property and casualty insurers receive premium payments upfront and pay out on claims at a later date, which leaves them holding large sums of money to invest for their own benefit. While individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of the ‘float’ tends to remain fairly stable in relation to premium volumes. As premiums grow, so does the ‘float’. As the table shows, Berkshire’s ‘float’ has increased by roughly 20% a year since 1970 which is quite remarkable. This is partly down to the fact that its insurance businesses have an excellent underwriting record so each year they typically add profits to the investment income which the ‘float’ produces. Berkshire is now the seventh largest reinsurer by premiums in the world, just behind Lloyd’s of London. Buffett describes risk evaluation

in its insurance businesses as ‘a religion, Old Testament style’, with managers keenly aware that poor underwriting results cannot be allowed to undo the benefit of the ‘float’. So rather than having to pay for funds to finance its other investments, Berkshire has actually been paid in most years for holding and using other people’s money. Buffett accepts that big risks can take many years to surface (as in the case of asbestos) or they can be sudden (as in the case of Hurricane Katrina). He is also under no doubt that a major event will come sooner or later, either natural (earthquake or hurricane) or man-made (cyberattack), and the whole industry will suffer. The difference is that while Berkshire can expect to take its share of losses, unlike other insurers it ‘will be looking to add business the next day’ while others are constrained. HOW DO YOU INVEST IN BERKSHIRE? Shares in Berkshire Hathaway

GROWTH IN BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S INSURANCE ‘FLOAT’ SINCE 1970 Year

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018

Float ($m) 39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 122,732

CAGR

trade on the New York Stock Exchange and can be easily bought on most UK investment platforms. There are two classes of shares. The ‘A’ shares currently cost $310,250 each which is probably beyond most investors’ means. That is why Berkshire has also issued ‘B’ class shares which are cheaper but have lower voting rights. These currently trade at $206.90 each. We think this is a great business and its shares are well worth buying. The valuation isn’t as high as you might think – the price-tobook ratio is 1.2 and the price-toearnings ratio is 19.2, based on consensus forecasts for the next 12 months published by Refinitiv. An alternative way of getting exposure is through investment funds which have a stake in Berkshire. However, you would have to appreciate Buffett’s company would only represent a small part of a much larger portfolio. Fidelity American Special Situations (B89ST70) has 5.8% of its assets in Berkshire. Among investment trusts, Personal Assets Trust (PNL) has 1.9% of its assets in the company and Berkshire represents 1.6% of Bankers Investment Trust’s (BNKR) assets. 000'S 350

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY (A) 250 150

19.7% 20.3% 24.4% 20.4% 18.3%

50 ‘78

‘82

‘86

‘90

‘94

‘98

‘02

‘06

‘10

‘14

‘18

Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shares

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

THIS IS AN ADVERTISING PROMOTION

STRENGTH IN ADVERSITY BLACKROCK GREATER EUROPE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

The Eurozone economy has been lacklustre, having suffered collateral damage from the US/China trade war. However, argues Stefan Gries, Co-Manager of the BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust plc, central bankers are on the case and there are plenty of high-quality companies with unique products or services to keep investors interested.

Stefan Gries Co-Manager, BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust plc Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. European economies have been caught in the cross-fire of the US/China trade war. This has hurt both economic data and sentiment. Politics have also been unhelpful, as the rising tide of populism has forced policymakers’ hands, stalling economic reform. This has left European assets widely unloved by global investors. The most recent Merrill Lynch Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showed investors rotating away from areas they considered to be ‘cyclical’, which included European equities1. We don’t expect a significant revival in the global economy. Some resolution in the US/China trade talks would be welcome, but in our view, this will probably be a lengthy tussle about economic power across the globe and unlikely to be solved in the short term. A resolution on trade tariffs between Investment Week, June 2019 Financial Times, June 2019

1 2

the EU and the US, a Brexit deal and the Italian debt crisis would also be useful for European stock markets, but we are not holding our breath. The monetary policy outlook looks more promising. Mario Draghi’s recent comments at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual symposium in Sintra, Portugal, that the bank could relaunch its €2.6tn quantitative easing programme if the economic outlook worsened, were well-received by markets2. Christine Lagarde, Draghi’s likely successor, appears likely to continue the same policy. Further economic stimulus through tax cuts and spending is a possibility. Stock market impact However, the economy is not the stock market and we do not necessarily need any of these things to happen for share prices to make progress. More importantly, while sentiment towards European equities is still poor, it is creating opportunities. Valuations are lower. We are looking for quality companies, whose strength is not represented in their share price. There tend to be more of these to choose from when sentiment is weak. When we are looking at a stock, we base our decision on a number of key criteria: we want to find those businesses with a unique product, brand or contract, which provides a competitive moat and allows a company to generate attractive returns. This needs to come with a quality management team with a clearly defined strategy for creating value from that unique product. We accept that there will be times when these companies are in and out of favour. For example, during the recent bout of market volatility, the market favoured utilities as a ‘safe haven’ asset in troubled times. While these companies undoubtedly have predictable earnings – people heat their houses whatever the economic climate, they carry high levels of debt and aren’t particularly profitable. This isn’t the type of business we want to hold even if it is seeing positive momentum in the short term. Opportunities amid uncertainty At the same time, at times of market dislocation, investors can overlook the type of companies we like. During the recent bout of turbulence, we bought Amadeus Group, a Spanish IT provider for the global travel and tourism industry. The recent volatility allowed us to add it to the portfolio at a more reasonable price.

THIS IS AN ADVERTISING PROMOTION

The recent political disruption in Italy has had a particular impact on Italian assets. Investors, in general, have decided to look elsewhere rather than take the risk on Italian companies. This too has turned up some opportunities. We added a position in FinecoBank which has done well in a challenging environment for Italian financial services companies. We find many of the companies in which we invest reporting ‘business as usual’ in spite of the economic and political headwinds. A speciality chemical distributor which is successfully growing market share and pricing, for example, won’t necessarily feel the heat when the European economic environment weakens. We cast our net wide when looking for companies. We can hold up to 15% of the trust in Eastern European domiciled companies. These add something new to the portfolio, diversifying it away from the largest developed economies in

Trust-Specific Risks Exchange rate risk: The return of your investment may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Emerging Europe: Emerging market investments are usually associated with higher investment risk than developed market investments. Therefore, the value of these investments may be unpredictable and subject to greater variation. Liquidity risk: The Fund’s investments may have low liquidity which often causes the value of these investments to be less predictable. In extreme cases, the Fund may not be able to realise the investment at the latest market price or at a price considered fair. Gearing risk: Investment strategies, such as borrowing, used by the Trust can result in even larger losses suffered when the value of the underlying investments fall. Important Information Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Registered in England and Wales No. 2020394. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. BlackRock has not considered the suitability of this investment against your individual needs and risk tolerance. To ensure you understand whether our product is suitable, please read the fund specific risks in the Key Investor Document (KID) which gives more information about the risk profile of the investment. The KID and other documentation are available on the relevant product pages at www.blackrock.co.uk/its. We recommend you seek independent professional advice prior to investing. The Company is managed by BlackRock Fund Managers Limited (BFM) as the AIFM. BFM has delegated certain investment management and other ancillary services to BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. The Company’s shares are traded on the London Stock

Europe and the Eurozone as a whole. In markets that are flighty, we believe it is important to be selective and stick to the approach that has served us well over the years. European markets continue to face a number of challenges this year. We are exceptionally selective in our investments, looking for those companies which we believe are global leaders in their field and have enough resilience to withstand a more difficult environment. For more information on this Trust and how to access the opportunities presented by European markets, please visit www.blackrock.com/uk/brge

TO INVEST IN THIS TRUST CLICK HERE

Exchange and dealing may only be through a member of the Exchange. The Company will not invest more than 15% of its gross assets in other listed investment trusts. SEDOL™ is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange plc and is used under licence. Net Asset Value (NAV) performance is not the same as share price performance, and shareholders may realise returns that are lower or higher than NAV performance. The BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust plc currently conducts its affairs so that its securities can be recommended by IFAs to ordinary retail investors in accordance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules in relation to non-mainstream investment products and intends to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The securities are excluded from the Financial Conduct Authority’s restrictions which apply to non-mainstream investment products because they are shares in an investment trust. Any research in this material has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. This material is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. © 2019 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. ID: MKTGM0919E-943597-3/3

STRAP IN FOR THE

CAR SECTOR RECOVERY There’s still fuel in the tank for retailers and financiers

ritain’s automotive industry has stalled as low global demand and weak domestic consumer confidence weigh on sales, profits and sentiment. Disruption is impacting the global car industry and many of the businesses whose fortunes are tied to the automotive sector are in for a very bumpy ride. Yet those able to adapt to the shifting landscape could see exciting times down the road. In this article, Shares examines the headwinds putting the brakes on growth and poses the question, ‘is there value in the broader automotive sector for contrarians?’

developments in the area of vehicle electrification – everything from hybrids to full battery electric vehicles, connected vehicles, vehicles with greater autonomy and virtual product development.

Cambria Automobiles

GLOBAL GRIND Automotive is among the globe’s most challenged industries with air quality and CO2 reduction at the top of the priority list. Diesel sales have slumped following emissions scandals – Volkswagen is still trying to repair the reputational dent – while the trade war between the US and China is triggering slowdowns in the European and Chinese markets. Original equipment manufacturers are cutting costs while investing in new product

Motorpoint

Marshall Motor

-2%

Caffyns

-4%

Inchcape

-5%

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

COLLISION COURSE Alarmingly, the CEO of car parts supply colossus Continental, Elmar Degenhart, has warned of an ‘emerging crisis’ in the auto industry as his charge drives through a major restructuring. 1 YEAR SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT FOR STOCKS RELATED TO THE CAR SECTOR

TI Fluid Systems

-20%

Vertu Motors

-21%

Autins

-44%

Lookers

-47%

Source: SharePad. 1 year data to 30 Sep 2019

The company is responding to a decline in global automotive production fuelled by digitalisation and the rapid shift to battery-powered vehicles, boosted by stringent emissions and fuel-efficiency regulations. On the home front, Brexit uncertainty has meant investment in British factories has stalled. Aston Martin Lagonda’s (AML) shares recently hit the skids again after the luxury brand announced (25 Sep) it had raised $150m from a bond issue on a very high rate of interest, with the option to raise another $100m if order targets are met, to bolster its cash position against a dire backdrop for car makers. YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICIT British car factories make vehicles for companies including Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Mini, yet many car industry executives believe Brexit will be damaging for the sector. UK car production grew 3.3% in August, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), to 92,158

units. But this monthly growth couldn’t offset substantial April losses, meaning there is a year-todate deficit of 17% with output failing to reach 1m units by August for the first time in five years. August’s increase, the first in 15 months, was largely down to several key plants pulling forward planned summer shutdowns to April to guard against the disruption of the-then 29 March EU withdrawal date, which then kept their production lines rolling through the summer. Exports registered negligible 0.6% growth in August, but even this disguised weakness in major global markets with production for China down 43.8%, exports to the US falling 9.1% and those to the EU declining 13.7% in the first eight months. Industry representatives from 17 of the EU’s biggest car producing and buying countries, including Germany, Italy, France, Belgium and Spain, have joined forces in united opposition to a no-deal Brexit, spooked by tariffs threatening affordability on both sides of the Channel and the end of barrier-free trade bringing disruption to efficient just-in-time supply chains.

CAR MANUFACTURING

Total Home Export % Export

August 2018 August 2019 89,255 16,261 72,994 81.8%

92,158 18,725 73,433 79.7%

% Change

YTD 2019

% Change

3.3% 15.2% 0.6%

866,918 173,296 693,622 80.0%

-17.0% -11.1% -18.4%

Source: SMMT

SPLUTTERING GROWTH ENGINES OTHER BUSINESSES BEING impacted by global automotive industry headwinds include engineering-to-environmental consultancy Ricardo (RCDO). With car manufacturers distracted by Brexit and market slowdowns in Europe and China, Ricardo has seen reduced levels of orders across its global automotive businesses amid ‘uncertainty in outsourcing trends’. This summer (8 Aug), specialist automotive firm TI Fluid Systems (TIFS), which makes automotive fluid storage, carrying and delivery systems for light vehicles, posted a drop in first half sales and earnings. Given challenging market conditions, the company said it expected revenue to continue to outperform global light vehicle production volume levels, although it anticipated this revenue outperformance for the year to be lower than the prior year.

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

ELECTRIC DREAMS GOVERNMENTS INCLUDING China, India and the UK have committed to bans of new gasoline and diesel vehicles, leaving electric vehicles as the obvious market replacement. Bloomberg New Energy Finance has forecast that new sales of electric vehicles will overtake internal combustion engine vehicles by 2038. In the UK, electric vehicles are forecast to grow rapidly with National Grid’s scenarios suggesting more than 35m vehicles by 2050 with 80% of this figure hit by 2037 in the two most aggressive scenarios. One radical question some are now pondering is whether we are nearing ‘peak car’. Neil Brown, co-manager on the Liontrust Sustainable Investment team, says: ‘Short-term problems in our auto industry are well known but we look beyond the profit warnings of 2018 and trade war tweets of 2019 to the underlying drivers. ‘Emissions controls have been an issue for decades but we believe something more fundamental is at work: the problem is not should we buy a diesel, petrol, hybrid or full electric but rather whether to own a car at all’.

GOVERNMENT COMMITMENTS TO THE END OF SALES OF CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES 2040 2030 2025 NORWAY

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

AUSTRIA CHINA INDIA IRELAND ISRAEL NETHERLANDS SLOVENIA

2032 SCOTLAND

FRANCE SRI LANKA TAIWAN UK

SHOULD YOU INVEST IN A CAR RETAILER? Risk-averse investors may recoil at the thought of climbing behind the wheel of the quoted UK motor retailers, though the sector has deep value appeal. Car dealers are cyclical businesses with skinny margins, making money from the sale of new and used cars, higher margin car servicing and repairs and through commissions from selling credit and insurance products. Selling new cars is crucial, because they eventually become the used cars that will require periodic (and higher margin) servicing and repair. Until a few years ago, the UK new car market was motoring ahead thanks to easy credit in the form of so-called personal contract plans (PCPs), under which motorists rent rather than buy a car. Consumers usually signed up to three-year PCPs where they paid the depreciation on the car plus interest, with the monthly payments reduced by any money they provided upfront via a deposit. Some doom-mongers fear this build-up in credit is a bubble that could go pop. This is why the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) reviewed the market, although it concluded PCP is not yet a threat to UK economic financial stability. DEALERSHIP PROBLEMS As for the quoted dealerships, their challenges are legion. Consumer and business confidence has deteriorated due to uncertainty caused by the seemingly unending Brexit process. Big ticket purchases including cars have been put on the back burner despite record high

employment, with a knock-on impact for the new and used car markets, not helped by weak sterling and sharply reduced demand for diesel cars amid environmental concerns and stricter emissions regulations affecting supply. The removal of incentives to buy plug-in hybrid vehicles has thrown up yet another roadblock. VALUE IN THE WRECKAGE Investors looking for contrarian opportunities among quoted car retailers need to consider if

CAR FOR HIRE A LESS OBVIOUS way of looking at the car sector is Anexo (ANX:AIM), a specialist credit hire and legal services provider for not-at-fault drivers involved in an accident. As well as handling the customer’s claim through its legal department, Anexo provides a replacement hire car while its appointed garages repair the damaged vehicle, taking all the burden off the customer. In the six months to 30 June turnover grew by 55% to £36.7m and pre-tax profit jumped

by 63% to £11m as the firm handled a higher volume of customers and a higher volume of high-value claims. 200 170 140 110

ANEXO 2018

2019

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

all the bad news is now priced into the shares and whether the companies have strong enough balance sheets to withstand the storms. Interestingly, many of the car retailers have freehold and long leasehold property and their shares are now trading at less than the value of their tangible assets. Free cash flow could start to steadily build as the capital expenditure cycle for most dealers comes to a close. ‘Looking longer term, we do believe there is a clear future for mid/large well-capitalised dealer groups and believe there is strong value on offer for long-term investors,’ wrote Zeus Capital’s sector expert Mike Allen in a recent research note. He added: ‘Free cash flow yields are healthy across the sector and a sign of strong value emerging – we believe this will be the key catalyst to any share price recovery coupled with the stabilisation of earnings.’ WHAT IS THE STATE OF PLAY WITH LISTED COMPANIES? The biggest car retailer on the London Stock Exchange is Inchcape (INCH), which is a global player. It has partnerships with high-end car brands and a higher margin distribution business at its core. Its shares have traded in a fairly narrow band this year. Pendragon (PDG) is the largest London-listed UK car retail player whose first half results (18

Sep) revealed a bigger loss than expected and the dividend was scrapped. Pendragon has issued a string of profit warnings amid new car market weakness and the cost of clearing legacy used car stock, while a monster cost base and management flux partially explain prevailing poor sentiment. Investors were left reeling by the relatively recent shock departure of chief executive Mark Herbert after just three months in the hot seat following a review of the group’s profitability and strategic focus. Pendragon’s peers include dealership Lookers (LOOK) which is facing higher costs over the next few years as it fixes issues uncovered in its sales practices. Lookers is being investigated by the financial regulator into how it incentives staff selling car finance packages, having flagged up issues in its sales practices during an independent review of its internal control and audit processes. Motorpoint (MOTR) in July said it was seeing market share gains against a declining market and that it remained confident. That triggered a sharp rally in the shares although they’ve since come back. Cambria Automobiles (CAMB:AIM) said on 4 September that its results for the year to 31 August would be ahead of market expectations and the management gave fairly upbeat remarks about the company’s prospects.

AN ALTERNATIVE WAY OF INVESTING IN THE CAR SECTOR S&U (SUS) owns of one of the UK’s leading car finance providers, Advantage, which serves the huge ‘non-prime’ market for cars up to £6,000 which are typically non-discretionary purchases by people who need a car for work or the school run. In the six months to 31 July Advantage received a record 680,000 applications for credit, such is the demand for used-car finance. Its credit criteria are so strict that only 1.8% of applications were approved, taking its total customer base to around 62,000. Turnover in the six month period was up a steady 7% to £47.7m while pre-tax profit was up 4% to £17.1m, meaning a respectable 35.8%

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

2700

S &U 2400 2100 1800 2018

2019

return on sales. Considering that the total used car market is worth over £40bn per year, and the number of used car sales on finance was up 3% in the year to July while new car sales were down, the potential market for S&U is still huge relative to its current size. We have a ‘buy’ rating on the stock.

OUR TOP 2 CAR RETAIL STOCKS TO BUY VERTU

MARSHALL MOTORS

Shares remains bullish about the longer term prospects of freehold property-backed Vertu Motors (VTU:AIM), the UK’s fifth largest car retailer, currently languishing at 33.7p. That is a major discount to last reported tangible net assets per share of 44.9p. Vertu has performed resiliently in the face of industry challenges. No-nonsense boss Robert Forrester is understandably cautious about the short-term outlook, but Vertu is well positioned to consolidate a fragmented market given its strong track record and balance sheet. Tough industry conditions mean that acquisition opportunities, including distressed assets, are increasing.

Daksh Gupta-steered Marshall Motor (MMH:AIM) also has deep value allure, reporting net assets of £200.7m or 257p per share at the 30 June balance sheet date versus a 144p share price at the time of writing. Its first half results (13 Aug) demonstrated another sector-leading performance with healthy underlying pre-tax profit of £15.2m, albeit down 5.3% year-on-year, driven by a strong outperformance in used vehicles and a ‘very respectable performance in new cars’, to quote Investec Securities. Zeus Capital says it remains happy with the long term investment case, aided by a robust balance sheet and solid track record of execution and outperforming the wider market. 700

VERTU MOTORS 40

600

500

MARSHALLS

32 2018

2019

400

2018

2019

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

Can Japan tackle global trade concerns? Some investors are starting to see value in its stock market despite a volatile backdrop

nvestors with exposure to Japanese equities are enjoying the ‘Abenomics’ area, which dates back to Prime Minster Shinzō Abe’s general election victory in December 2012. Since then, the Nikkei 225 index has soared by 125% in local currency terms and 126% in sterling, compared to a 30% gain in the FTSE All-Share over the same period. Yet the same Nikkei 225 still trades 44% below its all-time high of 38,916, reached on 29 December 1989. The Japanese banks sector is also down by 90% from the peak attained on the same day. JAPANESE EQUITIES HAVE DONE WELL THIS DECADE BUT THEY HAVEN'T BEEN AS GOOD GOING BACK TO 1989

Jan '88

Jan '95 Jan '02 Nikkei 225 index

Jan '09 Jan '16 Topix Banks index Source: Refinitiv, AJ Bell

Economic growth remains patchy and inflation continues to run way below the 2% target laid down by the Bank of Japan, despite more than two decades of zero or negative interest rate policies and multiple rounds of quantitative easing. Huge bouts of fiscal stimulus and government spending have yet to make more than a temporary difference. Any spurts in growth and inflation have quickly receded after the central bank or the government tried to throttle back on any monetary or fiscal stimulus, let alone withdraw it. So if investors are wondering why the policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, in the form of fresh interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank, 30

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

via a return to quantitative easing, are receiving such a quizzical response from global equity markets now they know why. Japan has been here before. And its failure to fuel either growth or inflation on a sustainable basis means that Japan remains the place where, metaphorically speaking at least, no Western central banker wishes to go. THREE-POINT PLAN That said, the Abenomics programme of monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus and social, economic and corporate reform has boosted the Nikkei. It is also possible to argue that Japan’s economy is doing very well, given the number of obstacles that it faces, including the loss of the bulk of its supply of cheap nuclear fuel; a currency which has rallied by 15% against the dollar from its low of almost ¥126 to dollar in 2015; a string of natural disasters, including earthquakes and typhoons; and global trade tensions, which are seemingly GROWTH AND INFLATION HAVE BEEN UNEVEN AT BEST, EVEN DURING THE ABENOMICS ERA

Year-on-year GDP growth (%)

CPI inflation, year-on-year (%) Source: Refinitiv data, FRED – St. Louis Federal Reserve database, AJ Bell

starting to hit the world’s economy and therefore Japanese exports. Global trade tensions are still a potential challenge for Japan, especially as relations with South Korea remain frosty, even if there are signs of an agreement with the US. On 1 October, Japan increased consumption tax (its version of VAT) to 10% from 8%, after two delays. The postponements reflected worries over the impact on Japanese consumers and the broader economy. Japan fell into a recession after 2014’s increase from 5% to 8% and after 1997’s hike from 3% to 5%. JAPAN HAS JUST INCREASED ITS CONSUMPTION TAX FOR THE FOURTH TIME IN JUST OVER 20 YEARS

Source: Nikkei Asian Review, AJ Bell

Abe’s time in office is drawing to an end. The Prime Minister has already bent his Liberal Democratic Party’s rules once, when a change permitted him to stand for the party presidency for a third, three-year spell in 2018. He will not stand for a fourth time in September 2021 and the next general election is due shortly afterwards for good measure. FOREIGN INVASION The darkest hour comes before the dawn and on 15.5 times forward earnings with a yield of 2.1% Japan does not look particularly expensive relative to its 20-year history, according to consensus analyst forecasts.

It may not look knock-down cheap but real bulls of Japanese stocks will point out how foreign private equity firms are swarming to the Tokyo market. For example, KKR is flagging how Japan is its favourite arena right now when it came to looking for assets to buy and this reflects what could be a strong internal dynamic to the Nikkei and Topix indices, as corporate governance improves and shareholder returns become an area of much greater focus for management teams. In 2018 Japan overhauled its corporate governance code and in 2019 the Ministry for Economy, Trade and Industry made the first changes to the rules that pertained to mergers and acquisitions for over a decade. As a result, takeover activity is picking up, as evidenced by a bid battle for hotel group Unizo. Activist investors are also starting to get traction. Sony sold its 5% shareholding in Olympus in the face of pressure to do so from American activist Third Point. Another US activist, Value Act, had already managed to force a change of chairman at the accounting-scandal-scarred Olympus and get three independent (and foreign) directors elected to the board. Someone clearly thinks there is value to be had and bulls will argue that Japanese equities may be poised for further gains, especially if global trade relations settle down and global growth expectations start to surprise on the upside once more. Equally, if global fixed-income markets are right and a global downturn or recession is due in 2020, then equities could struggle, even relative to Japanese government bonds, where yields may be nugatory but there is a guaranteed buyer of last resort, in the form of the Bank of Japan. By Russ Mould AJ Bell Investment Director

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

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EDUCATION

What does a good and bad portfolio look like? We discuss ways in which to improve your portfolio construction

ortfolio construction has an important part to play in the investment world, but receives very little attention. It’s a shame because it can make a huge difference to long-term performance as well as reduce stress to help investors stay the course. This article looks at the benefits of building a balanced portfolio and the different ways it can be done. It might sound obvious, but a good starting point when building a portfolio is to have a clear idea of the returns you are aiming for, the time frame involved and how much risk you are prepared to take to achieve your goals. There are many different types of assets to choose from beyond equities, including fixed-income securities (bonds), commodities such as gold and oil, private equity, property and alternative assets. Each will have different expected long-term return and risk profiles. For this article we will focus on stock portfolios but look out for future articles where we will discuss the same principles as they apply to portfolios containing funds and multi-assets. Let’s start by looking at a badly constructed portfolio to highlight some common mistakes and then offer some simple remedies.

AN EXAMPLE OF A BAD PORTFOLIO

(it isn’t diversified enough with too much oil exposure) Name

Value (£)

% of Portfolio

Sector

Company A

£300

Banks

Company B

£300

Retail

Company C

£400

Beverages

Company D

£1000

15%

Oil & Gas

Company E

£1000

15%

Oil & Gas

Company F

£2000

31%

Oil & Gas

Company G

£500

Energy

Company H

£1000

15%

Mining

Total

£6,500

100%

SECTOR WEIGHTS Oil and gas – 62% Energy – 8% Mining – 15% Banks – 5% Retail – 5% Beverages – 6%

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

EDUCATION WHAT IS A BAD PORTFOLIO? Our hypothetical portfolio has a very large weighting in oil and gas shares with a particularly large position in Company F. It might seem logical to put more money into the shares where you have the greatest confidence. It could be that you work in the oil industry and have a greater knowledge base. There are two big problems with this approach, one psychological and one mathematical. In many experimental tests, so-called experts not only make poor forecasters relative to the lay person, but they also display massive overconfidence. So when they are wrong, they are very wrong. Secondly, the heavy weighting in oil and gas means that the performance of three shares will determine the return of the whole portfolio, swamping the contribution from the other holdings. Any setback in the oil and gas sector could be devastating to your returns.

“A 33% loss requires a subsequent 50% gain just to get back to breakeven” In addition, this portfolio is likely to fluctuate a lot, and academic evidence shows that this detracts from long-term performance. To illustrate the problem, a 33% loss requires a subsequent 50% gain just to get back to breakeven. 34

| SHARES 03 October 2019

FIVE WAYS TO BUILD A BETTER PORTFOLIO

DIVERSIFICATION As the word suggests, diversification means simply spreading bets across a wide range of assets that behave differently to each other. It is a key part of the tool box that helps to reduce the fluctuation of the portfolio without detracting from its future returns. Our bad portfolio doesn’t have any exposure to industrials, healthcare, telecoms, technology or utilities which would bring added variety to the line-up. In addition, healthcare and utility shares tend to move around less than other areas of the market and provide good protection when market volatility increases.

20 IS THE MAGIC NUMBER Academics discovered long ago that adding more companies to a portfolio has the effect of decreasing its volatility. But, crucially there is a limit to the benefits, and that line is roughly 20 to 30 names. After that, adding more stocks will simply add cost without lowering the risk by very much. This is known as diseconomies of scale. Simply speaking, portfolios

that have more stocks are less prone to extreme performance. Our bad portfolio needs far more companies in it to be considered properly diversified and is prone to extreme fluctuations.

CONCENTRATION RISKS One way of thinking about concentration risk is to look at the sector weightings of the benchmark and compare them to your portfolio. A good rule of thumb is to limit exposure to the major sectors to plus or minus 50%. Applying something along these lines will act to reduce the volatility of the portfolio, without necessarily reducing returns. For example, the oil and gas sector is around 16% of the FTSE 100 index, so using our guidelines the maximum weight in our bad portfolio would be 24% and the smallest weight would be 8%.

SENSIBLE SIZING It is important not to put too much of the portfolio into a single position. If you have a 30 stock portfolio and weight them equally, each stock would represent 3.3%.

EDUCATION A 20% fall in any single stock would only shave 0.66% off the value of the portfolio, and assuming that some of the others went up a little and some down a little, the overall performance would be acceptable, slightly up or down on the day. It would be a different story with our hypothetical bad portfolio. Let’s say company F fell 20%; it would mean the portfolio was down 6.2% on a single day, and that’s before contributions from the other holdings. Moreover if the reason that the company fell was oil sectorspecific, then it’s likely that the other oil and gas names would fall in sympathy, exacerbating the loss.

OTHER THINGS TO THINK ABOUT Different investing styles come and go out of fashion and sometimes those trends can last for months and years. Growth and quality styles have been very popular since the financial crisis, at the expense of value, resulting in a wide performance gap. It can therefore make sense from a diversification point of view to own a variety of styles of stocks, such as value, growth and momentum. By applying a few simple concepts, it’s possible to reap the rewards from a wellconstructed portfolio without detracting from good stockpicking skills. By Martin Gamble Senior Reporter

AN EXAMPLE OF A GOOD PORTFOLIO Name

% of Portfolio

Sector

Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Company 6 Company 7 Company 8 Company 9 Company 10 Company 11 Company 12 Company 13 Company 14 Company 15 Company 16 Company 17 Company 18 Company 19 Company 20

5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Defensives Consumer Defensives Consumer Defensives Energy Energy Energy Financials Financials Financials Healthcare Healthcare Industrials Industrials Mining Technology Telecoms Utilities

Total

100%

SECTOR WEIGHTS Consumer Cyclicals – 15% Consumer Defensives – 15% Energy – 15% Financials – 15% Healthcare – 10% Industrials – 10% Mining – 5% Technology – 5% Telecoms – 5% Utilities – 5%

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

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MONEY MATTERS

The demise of the bank branch We look at the alternatives if your local bank shuts down

ou’d be very lucky if you live in an area where no banks have closed branches in the past few years – new figures show that a third of banks have shut over the past five years. The calculations, from consumer champion Which?, found that more than 3,000 bank branches have closed down since the start of 2015. Royal Bank of Scotland is the worst offender, shuttering almost three quarters of its branches, while NatWest closed half. What’s more, if you live in the Yorkshire area of Wentworth and Dearne you will be in the first constituency to have no bank branches left at all. Eight other constituencies are on the brink, with just one branch left. It’s not just closures that have hit customers, with other branches reducing the hours or days of the week they’re open. So if your local branch has closed and you don’t want to bank online, what are your other options? POST OFFICE The Post Office is the biggest lifeline for those who have been cut off from their bank. You can do your basic banking at these branches, including withdrawing money and checking the balance on your UK bank accounts, while most customers will also be able

Royal Bank of Scotland has shut almost three quarters of its branches since the the start of 2015

to pay money in. But you won’t be able to transfer money to another account or get help with any questions you have about your savings or current account. SWITCH TO THE SUPERMARKET A number of supermarkets are now offering banking services, with a small number even having a mini bank branch in store. Sainsbury’s, Tesco and M&S all offer bank accounts, with their ATMs in store letting you withdraw cash, check your balance and deposit money. M&S has actual bank branches in a number of its stores, but unfortunately they tend to be in larger towns and cities, which are likely to already have other bank services.

travelling bank, with a van going to different locations throughout the UK six days a week. In the van you can make deposits, pay bills and withdraw cash, and also talk to staff. Customers can check online to see when the van will next be in their area. A FLYING BANKER Bank branches in remote areas in Scotland are only open for a few hours each week, with a banker flying between the different locations to staff the bank. In the Orkney Islands, RBS’s ‘flying banker’ travels by air (or ferry if needed) to man branches on the remote islands of South Walls, Westray, Sanday and North Ronaldsay.

BANK IN A VAN NatWest and Lloyds offer a 03 October 2019 | SHARES |

MONEY MATTERS

Helping you with personal finance issues

How much are you taking from your pension? New figures show the latest trends for withdrawal rates and the number seeking advice

alf of people who are taking money from their pensions are doing so without taking any advice, new figures show. Data from the Financial Conduct Authority, a regulator, showed how people in retirement are making use of the pension freedoms – the reforms in 2015 that allow people to access their pensions more freely. For the period from April 2018 to March 2019 it found that 48% of people took money out of their pension after taking no advice or guidance, while 15% took no advice but did consult the Government’s PensionWise guidance service. The remaining 37% of people took financial advice before taking money. The figures also showed that four in 10 people who accessed their money had a pension worth £10,000 or less, meaning some may not think their pot is large enough to warrant getting advice. What’s more, 355,000 pensioners took their entire pension in one go when they first accessed it. While some may be doing so because they only had a small amount in that pension pot, others may be falling foul of high tax bills just to access their money. WATCH OUT FOR TAX ISSUES The way tax is paid on pension withdrawals is clumsy, and means

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

VALUE OF PENSION POTS FULLY WITHDRAWN Pension pot size

Number fully withdrawn

Less than £10,000

223,461

£10,000 - £29,999

93,144

£30,000 - £49,999

23,484

£50,000 - £99,999

12,046

£100,000 - £249,999

2,354

£250,000 and above

355

Source: FCA, covers period April 2018 to March 2019

that your first withdrawal is taxed as though that sum will be taken monthly. It means that many people who make a one-off withdrawal from their pension are charged far too much tax and have to go through an onerous process of claiming it back. The new data shows that while 90% of the pension pots that had been withdrawn

entirely were worth less than £30,000, many took much higher sums. In the most extreme cases, 355 people withdrew pots worth £250,000 or more, while 2,354 people took out pots worth £100,000 to £250,000. Tom Selby, senior analyst at AJ Bell, says: ‘For some of these people there could be legitimate reasons they would want to

MONEY MATTERS

Helping you with personal finance issues

INCOME LEVEL (NUMBER OF PENSIONS) Greater than or Between Between Between 2% - 3.99% 4% - 5.99% 6% - 7.99% equal to 8%

Pension pot size

Less than 2%

Less than £10,000

846

673

951

1,098

10,390

£10,000 - £29,999

1,424

2,374

5,329

5,943

29,263

£30,000 - £49,999

2,006

3,851

7,210

6,909

24,728

£50,000 - £99,999

4,422

9,307

15,092

12,506

29,912

£100,000 - £249,999

8,575

16,099

19,390

13,928

22,767

£250,000 and above

14,610

17,184

12,862

6,741

8,019

Source: FCA, covers period April 2018 to March 2019

access this money, for example being in ill health and having no desire to leave money to beneficiaries. But for some it will simply be a desire to get their hands on the cash. ‘Far too few people are seeking advice or guidance about crucial retirement decisions across the board, and boosting these numbers needs to be a priority for the regulator. The nature of the pension freedoms means while some will use their new found flexibility responsibly, others risk sleepwalking into disaster. Increasing take-up of advice and guidance is crucial to help mitigate this risk.’ Keith Richards, chief executive of the Personal Finance Society, says: ‘The Government and the FCA [should] do more to make sure providers are signposting guidance services and advice and explaining the potential ramifications if you don’t seek assistance. We want to make sure that nobody ends up making the wrong retirement income choice.”

ANNUITIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE People are continuing to favour keeping their pension pot invested rather than buying an annuity. A big part of the pension freedoms was removing the requirement for people to buy an annuity when they retired. It meant that many more people chose to keep their pension invested and take an income from the pot. The figures show that 74,000 people chose to use their pension to buy an annuity in the year, compared to the 191,000 people who started taking an income from the pot. However, the regulator did flag that some people are taking very large income from their pension pot – in total 40% of withdrawals were 8% of the pension pot or higher. The number taking such large incomes from their

“Far too few people are seeking advice”

pots reduces as the size of the pot grows, for example, 14% of people with pots worth £250,000 or more are taking withdrawals of 8% or more, compared to 74% of those with pots worth £10,000 or less. It is impossible to know whether these withdrawals are sustainable for individuals without knowing their specific circumstances. Someone with a significant defined benefit pension pot, for example, might be able to draw from a second pension at a faster rate without putting their retirement future at risk. Some may have seen strong investment performance in their pension that they want to benefit from. Others may be taking far smaller incomes from their pot as they are relying on ISA savings, or attempting to preserve the pension pot to pass on to future generations.

03 October 2019 | SHARES |

WEEKLY PODCAST Recent episodes include: Thomas Cook collapse, lack of new investment trusts, savings accounts that pay zilch and a cheeky way to make money from Monzo What Boris means for your money, warning signs with property bonds, and why paper receipts could be history The best and worst performing shares this year, planning a tidy death, investing for a house deposit and popular job searches

MONEY MARKETS

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‘How would an election affect my pension?’ Our expert helps a reader concerned about the impact of a new government on his retirement savings I’m 58 and concerned about the impact a general election and change of government could have on my finances. Are we likely to see any big changes to the pension rules and is there anything I can do to protect myself? One option I’m considering is taking my entire SIPP (worth about £60,000) out and investing in an ISA instead. Paul Tom Selby AJ Bell Senior Analyst says:

As with Brexit, when it comes to other periods of short-term instability such as a general election it’s worth bearing in mind the pensions are for the long-term. You should therefore avoid making any panic decisions with your fund based on what you think may or may not happen as a result of such events. Taking all of your money out of your pension and investing in something like an ISA almost certainly isn’t advisable. While a quarter of your pension withdrawal will be taxfree, the rest will be taxed in the same way as income, so if you take a large chunk out you risk paying more income tax than is necessary. In addition, if it is your first taxable withdrawal you’ll trigger the money purchase 41

| SHARES | 03 October 2019

annual allowance, reducing the amount you can save taxfree each year from £40,000 to just £4,000. Furthermore, pensions and ISAs enjoy exactly the same tax-free investment growth and usually provide a similar level of investment choice too. So there would be no obvious financial benefit to swapping one product for another. It is, however, worth keeping an eye on party manifestos and other election promises so you are prepared for any

possible changes that could impact your finances. There have been few specific pledges made in relation to pensions so far, although that is likely to change if we get into a general election campaign. Historically, governments have tended to protect the pensions people have already saved – sometimes referred to as ‘accrued rights’ – so if there are any big announcements they should only apply to future retirement contributions. Perhaps one of the biggest electoral battlegrounds will be around the state pension. While the Conservative Government has set out plans to increase the state pension age to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2037, Labour has previously said it will stop all increases beyond 66 and review future increases. The costs of state pensions are spiralling and savers should prepare for a world where they have to work longer regardless of who eventually gets the keys to Number 10.

DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION ON RETIREMENT ISSUES? Send an email to editorial@sharesmagazine.co.uk with the words ‘Retirement question’ in the subject line. We’ll do our best to respond in a future edition of Shares. Please note, we only provide guidance and we do not provide financial advice. If you’re unsure please consult a suitably qualified financial adviser. We cannot comment on individual investment portfolios.

2019 Approximately 8,200 votes were cast for the best funds, investment trusts and exchange-traded funds in AJ Bellâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Fund and Investment Trust Awards 2019. Now in its third year, the awards are a chance for retail investors and financial advisers to have a say on their favourite funds across both the active and passive fund categories. Congratulations to all the winners.