magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
Why real interest rates matter for the performance of shares
Thursday 29 Jun 2023For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the Bank of England’s 13th straight interest rate hike last week (22 June), the nominal base rate of 5% is still some way below the post-1970 average of 6.4%. Even more tellingly, the real rate of interest – adjusting for inflation – is still minus 3.7...
Reasons why the market could be too pessimistic about oil demand
Thursday 15 Jun 2023‘You cannot buck the market’ is taken as axiomatic by many investors and it may be that Saudi Arabia is finding this out the hard way, as it attempts to bend the oil price to its iron will. A fresh production cut from Riyadh, and an extension to the decreases initially agreed in April through 2024...
Copper/gold ratio: what does it mean and what is it telling us?
Thursday 01 Jun 2023This column’s regular readers will know of its faith in ‘Dr Copper’ and the commodity’s status as an economic indicator. If copper prices are firm, the economy is usually doing well and vice-versa. Equally, this column takes a keen interest in gold, in the view it is not so much a hedge against...
Have we reached the peak of the US market’s appeal as a listing venue?
Thursday 18 May 2023One issue which continues to bedevil the UK market is the number of firms who are considering switching their main listing from the London Stock Exchange, usually to New York, and the potential newcomers who are opting to float stateside rather than on this side of the pond. This is leading to much...
Nasdaq rally: is this a brave new dawn or a big bear trap?
Thursday 04 May 2023It was the worst-performing major equity index in 2022 and, so far, it has been the best in 2023. Is the Nasdaq back? It is tempting to think so, especially after the meaty rally in stocks such as Meta Platforms (META:NDQ) and Microsoft (MSFT:NDQ) following their first-quarter results. In addition...
Do gold stocks have the Midas touch right now?
Thursday 20 Apr 2023Any readers who share Warren Buffett’s opinion that gold is an inert, useless lump can turn over the page right now. The Sage of Omaha has long since asserted that an alien invader would dismiss the purportedly precious metal as worthless were they to trip over an ingot upon their arrival from...
Five ways to spot if inflation, deflation or stagflation is coming
Thursday 06 Apr 2023Whatever the outcome of the banking wobble, which for now seems contained to US regional lenders and one badly run Swiss institution, one possibility is that it constrains lending and credit growth and hits the wider economy. Amid the wider loss of trust, senior loan and credit risk officers may...
How three years of sound and fury on the markets signified nothing
Thursday 23 Mar 2023The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the latest round of strife to engulf Credit Suisse (CSGN:SWX) , forced into a union with UBS (UBS:SWX) , are once more putting the spotlight on monetary policy and begging the question of whether central banks may already be running it too tightly, as they...
Should investors seek exposure to the FTSE 100? Here are the pros and cons
Thursday 09 Mar 2023The FTSE 100’s brief flirtation with the 8,000 level is attracting a lot of attention. This may be a sign UK equities are still the subject of much scepticism, as the tone of the mainstream coverage seems to be one of pleasant surprise. Bulls will point to fund management legend John Templeton’s...
Is the US headed for a hard or soft landing in 2023?
Thursday 23 Feb 2023American musician and bandleader Frank Zappa once asserted that: “The mind is like a parachute. It doesn’t work if it isn’t open.’ Investing is surely just the same. No-one has a crystal ball and financial markets are at their most volatile – and therefore ripe with opportunity – when consensus...