magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
Bond and currency markets will be first test for new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss
Thursday 08 Sep 2022The stock market may well have its say on Liz Truss’ first new policy initiatives as prime minister, but the response of the government bond – or gilt – market and the pound may be more telling, at least in the very short term. Financial markets express their faith – or lack of it – in a country...
Five key tests of the markets’ tone for investors to monitor
Thursday 25 Aug 2022The summertime blues are nowhere to be seen. Share and bond prices are advancing, and oil and commodity prices are ebbing to help take the edge off inflationary concerns and permit markets to convince themselves that central banks are planning a policy pivot, in the form of interest rate cuts,...
Why commodities hold the key to the FTSE 100
Thursday 11 Aug 2022The UK’s first-half results reporting season is drawing to a close, and investors may be feeling they can breathe a sigh of relief. As in the US more firms are beating or meeting expectations and disappointments look relatively few and far between. Smith & Nephew ( SN. ) and Rolls-Royce ( RR...
What is top of the agenda in the latest US earnings season?
Thursday 28 Jul 2022The US second-quarter earnings season is about to reach full throttle. According to research from S&P Global’s Howard Silverblatt, at the time of wrting 31 members of the S&P 500 index have already reported earnings. Of those, 22 beat earnings expectations, while just nine missed and 21 did...
What a new mid-term prime minister means for UK stocks
Thursday 14 Jul 2022In the end Boris Johnson might – just – outlast Theresa May as prime minister, but financial markets are already wondering who will come next and what policies they will bring with them. So far, the UK’s leading stock market indices and sterling are taking the latest ructions in Westminster in...
The key things that could tell you if a US recession is coming
Thursday 30 Jun 2022US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell in his testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee in Washington declared a risk that America is heading into a recession. This represents refreshing honesty, especially for the head of an organisation with an unbroken record of failing to accurately predict any...
US earnings estimates are being slashed as more bad news piles up
Thursday 16 Jun 2022The Federal Reserve, like so many other Western central banks, remains on the horns of a dilemma. The US central bank can either let inflation run unchecked and run the risk that damages the economy as consumers’ pockets and corporations’ margins feel the pinch, or it can raise interest rates to...
Why oil shares seem unshaken by the windfall tax
Wednesday 01 Jun 2022Bruce Kovner may not be the best-known hedge fund manager in the world but, as the founder of Caxton Associates, he is one of the most successful. He gives little away in public, but it is worth tracking down his few pronouncements and one of this column’s favourites is his comment, ‘What I am...
Why it’s now looking like the usual market cycle is about to repeat
Thursday 19 May 2022Robert Rhea’s outline of a bull market in his tome, The Dow Theory , which dates back to 1932, still seems relevant today. He said: ‘There are three principal phases of a bull market: the first is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; the second is the response of stock...
Japan shock: Why the yen’s plunge really matters
Thursday 05 May 2022In 2013, Kyle Bass, the Texas-based founder and manager of hedge fund Hayman Capital, gave an interview in which he tersely stated, ‘I would buy gold in yen and go to sleep for 10 years.’ The case for short yen/long gold was based upon the tattered state of Japan’s public finances, the country’s...