magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
Which are the most and least popular stocks heading into 2023?
Thursday 26 Jan 2023Every year this column tracks the ratings put on stocks across the FTSE 100 and FTSE 350 by the investment banks which provide research on the UK equity market. This time, the analyst community is the most bullish it has ever been since our first survey back in 2015, based on stock-specific, public...
The five big factors which could push oil prices higher or lower in 2023
Thursday 12 Jan 2023Oil and gas prices are down so far in 2023 and both are trading back where they were a year ago. If central bankers, politicians, companies and consumers are looking for good news when there seems to be so much bad around, this is it. Higher energy prices stoke inflation, crimp corporate profit...
Discover what the yield curve is telling investors right now
Thursday 15 Dec 2022America’s S&P 500 is up by 11% in the last two months and the UK’s FTSE All-Share by 10% from the bottoms seen in early October. This may seem counter-intuitive, as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Office for Budget...
Does FTX’s collapse mean the cryptocurrency bubble is about to burst?
Thursday 01 Dec 2022Lurid stories continue to emerge as the courts, regulators and creditors continue to sift the wreckage of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, its trading and research arm Alameda and the financial affairs and reputation of their founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Three crushing ironies are apparent: 1. FTX...
History shows US stocks do well in the third year of a presidential term
Thursday 17 Nov 2022The rapturous response offered by equity and bond markets to a lower-than-expected US inflation print last week (10 Nov) only served to reinforce the importance of the debate over whether or when the Federal Reserve and other central banks will pause or pivot on monetary policy. The mere whiff of...
How to measure the new chancellor’s progress
Thursday 27 Oct 2022South West Surrey MP Jeremy Hunt is the fourth chancellor in four months. Assuming he remains in place under new prime minister Rishi Sunak he is likely to measure success in terms of jobs, economic growth and ultimately opinion polls and then votes when the next general election comes around, in...
Why soggy chip stocks could point to lean times ahead for equities
Thursday 20 Oct 2022Regular readers of this column will be aware of its faith in the Philadelphia Semiconductor index, or SOX, as a valuable indicator on two fronts. First, by dint of their ubiquity, silicon chips offer a good insight to global economic activity. Worldwide sales are expected to exceed $600 billion in...
What just happened with gilts and why Adam Smith nailed it
Thursday 06 Oct 2022It will be of little or no consolation to investors, but the UK is not the only country whose economic foundations are coming into question. The Bank of England has had to intervene in the gilt market, ostensibly to support the value of defined benefit pensions and more generally to bring order to...
The ‘Rule of 20’ is back and it tells us a lot about current markets
Thursday 22 Sep 2022The old saying that buying higher-risk investments guarantees higher returns is one of investing’s biggest fallacies. If buying higher-risk assets ensured higher returns all the time, then they would not be high-risk, would they, because of the certain premium returns? The best way to get the best...
Bond and currency markets will be first test for new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss
Thursday 08 Sep 2022The stock market may well have its say on Liz Truss’ first new policy initiatives as prime minister, but the response of the government bond – or gilt – market and the pound may be more telling, at least in the very short term. Financial markets express their faith – or lack of it – in a country...