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The market reaction to recent corporate updates hints at valuation concerns
Thursday 29 Oct 2020 Author: Ian Conway

In a sign that it’s sometimes better to travel than arrive, several US technology stocks went down last week despite delivering forecast-beating earnings. Notable names included software firm Citrix, cloud computing and services business IBM and chip maker Intel.

According to veteran US technology investor and commentator Fred Hickey, ‘of the 17 tech stocks I follow that reported earnings last week, 100% beat analysts’ estimates yet 12 of the stocks (70%) declined on week by 5% on average’.

As Saxo Bank’s head of equity strategy Peter Garnry points out, the fact that most companies have beaten estimates suggests analysts have been too bearish ‘but earnings beats have generally not been rewarded by the market, in a sign that the market was ahead of consensus estimates’.

The dispersion of returns is also notable. Companies which beat estimates by a big margin, such as Snapchat, rallied sharply (up 30%), while those which missed estimates such as Netflix were treated harshly (down more than 10% initially).

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