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We also look at the outlook for metal prices and how shares in commodities producers have fared
Thursday 02 Apr 2020 Author: Mark Gardner

Oil prices have plunged to 18-year lows of under $21 a barrel with over half of global demand wiped out amid the coronavirus pandemic, while in metals some clear winners and losers are starting to emerge.

In the commodities world, oil appears to be hit hardest thanks to a huge drop-off in demand from the coronavirus pandemic combined with a price war between two of the world’s largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Certainly a big part of the collapse in demand has been the cancellation of the vast majority of flights around the world, as an increasing amount of airlines ground their entire fleets.

According to Forbes, oil for transport accounts for 60% of the entire 101m barrels per day global oil market.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Economics, believes there is further downside to come for oil, with demand set to shrink by 2m barrels per day and the only thing bringing oil producers’ cartel OPEC back to the table to stabilise the market being even lower prices.

In the absence of an emergency meeting, it won’t be until June before OPEC meets again, by which time a significant surplus of oil will have accumulated with demand having fallen off a cliff.

It’s no wonder shares in oil producers have fallen markedly. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and BP (BP.) are down around 40% and 30% respectively year-to-date.

While in the FTSE 250, oil explorers Cairn Energy (CNE) and Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG) have fallen 60% and 38% respectively.

As for metals and mining, the picture is a lot more mixed. According to analysts at UBS, gold could rally again having been unusually subdued in the current economic crisis.

They estimate gold will hit $1,700 per ounce by the end of June, up from its current level of $1,600 per ounce.

Platinum group metals – which include rhodium, platinum and palladium – have also been a big beneficiary of recent events, with a 21-day lockdown in South Africa forcing mine closures.

The prices of platinum and palladium in particular have rebounded, with South Africa providing around 70% to 75% of the world’s platinum supply and 40% of an already very tight palladium market.

As far as share prices go, it seems the big beneficiaries so far have been the gold miners, with Polymetal (POLY), Fresnillo (FRES) and Centamin (CEY) all up year-to-date, compared to big falls for the major diversified miners such as Anglo American (AAL), BHP (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO).

Copper prices may decline as much of the world’s manufacturing is dented by the coronavirus outbreak. Shares in copper producer Antofagasta (ANTO) are down around 20% this year.

 

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