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Profitability could be at risk in key markets says analyst Donnelly
Thursday 27 Oct 2016 Author: William Cain

Mobile power generation provider Aggreko (AGK) slumps 15% as Panmure Gordon analyst Michael Donnelly slaps a ‘sell’ rating on the stock. We think the outlook is more positive for a stock which is one of our top picks for 2016.

Donnelly, who flagged concerns about Utilitywise (UTW:AIM) and Capita (CPI) ahead of similar sell-offs, says low growth, struggling end markets and poor cash conversion are Aggreko’s key problems.

AGK - Comparison Line Chart (Rebased to first) 123

Aggreko is now in its fourth year of ‘effectively zero growth’ writes Donnelly. Revenue growth is important, according to Donnelly’s analysis, if management is to achieve a return on capital target of 20%.

End markets are also struggling, Donnelly adds, flagging 40% of profit earned in North America, Latin America and Africa as potentially at risk from lower renewable energy prices and competition.

Finally, Donnelly says the stock is ‘very expensive’ on a calendar year 2017 free cash flow yield of 5.3% and a dividend yield of 2.9%.

Arguing a more bullish case in August, Aggreko chief executive Chris Weston said Aggreko’s fleet on hire in Utilities, its largest and most profitable division, is expected to head towards 85% of capacity later this year. That would be the highest since 2012 and lead to material year-over-year gains in revenue and margins moving into 2017.

Donnelly’s earnings per share estimate in 2016 is 65p, rising to 74p the year after. Shares in Aggreko trade at 816p.

If this is the bearish case on Aggreko investors should actually be fairly encouraged.

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